Three sectors moved higher on Thursday… XLY,
XLV, and XLI were the strongest
sectors. XLB was the weakest sector.
Breadth weakened on Thursday as advancers
led decliners…1.28 to 1 on the NYSE and decliners led advancers 1.08 to
1 on the NASDAQ…
Thursday
– weakened, advancers led
Wednesday
– strengthened, advancers led
Monday-
strengthened, advancers led
Friday
– weakened, decliners led
Thursday
– strengthened, decliners led
After two days of strong gains many stocks paused on Thursday as
some traders apparently chose to lock in gains.
Potentially bearish candles appeared on some charts. It’s time to manage stop adjustments
according to your rules.
SPY down 33 cents at 145.73...volume 144.7 million shares…
VIX down .12 at 14.56…
TNX up .60 at 18.99…
TNX up .60 at 18.99…
TLT down 1.62 at 117.94…
XLF down .02 cents at 16.85…volume 47.9 million shares
XLF down .02 cents at 16.85…volume 47.9 million shares
AAPL down 6.93 at 542.10…volume 12.1 million shares …
FB down 23 cents at`27.77…on volume of 63.1 million shares…
__________________
Technical Commentary:
The SPY traded in a tight range forming a spinning top and
potential bearish harami candle pattern at horizontal resistance formed in
September. Many stocks are at horizontal
resistance in a breakout setup or may have formed the first day of a bull flag
pullback.
Once again the weight of the evidence correctly indicates trend
direction.
The Euro closed down 132 pips at 1.3050 on Thursday.
Disk
storage stocks WDC -0.97% and STX -1.78% paused and formed
potential bearish candle patterns. Coal
stocks ANR +5.73%, ACI +3.82%,
BTU +3.10%, CNX +2.97%,
JRCC +5.28% and WLT made strong gains on Thursday.
The Market Forecast Green Line is pointed up in
the upper reversal zone.
____________________
Setups:
Breakout: ADBE, ADSK, BRCM, FB, FOSL, GOOG, MSFT, NTAP, QCOM,
SNDK, ANR, CIEN, CREE, CRM, GLW, IBM, JNPR, NFLX, RCL, ZION
____________________
39 of 100 NDX stocks closed higher on Thursday…
Leading NDX 100 stocks
included: ROST, MU, VRTX, DELL, SPLS, SIRI, PCLN, CTRX, SHLD, ISRG,
PRGO, VRSK, WYNN
Lagging NDX stocks
included: CHKP, FFIV, MNST, CTXS, GOLD, AKAM, EBAY, ALTR, STX, NUAN,
ESRX, ADI, ALXN
Leading stocks> +2% on Thursday included: LDK, TSL, HLF, ANR, ESI, NFLX, GRPN, UAL, TPX, TBT, TIF, YELP, GES, DECK, LVS
Lagging stocks < -2.0% included: CDE,
HUM, VMW, AKS, RVBD, STI, RIMM
Stocks to Watch on Friday…
Holding Above 30 DMA = 85
YHOO, SBUX, CSCO, NTAP, VMED, SBAC, EXPD, LLTC, PCAR, XLNX, TXN, ADI, SIAL, FISV, ADSK, DELL, FFIV, ORCL, COST, MNST, ADBE, GOOG, GRMN, NWSA, DISCA, AMAT, CTSH, FOSL, KLAC, VIAB, NUAN, STX, LBTYA, WDC, AKAM, ALTR, CHKP, FAST, MCHP, SNDK, EQIX, LMCA, CTXS, CHRW, INTC, SIRI, BIDU, VRSK, ADP, AMZN, BRCM, CMCSA, DTV, EBAY, ESRX, EXPE, LINTA, MU, MXIM, MYL, NVDA, SRCL, SYMC, VRTX, WFM, WYNN, XRAY, PRGO, FB, ALXN, AMGN, BMC, CA, CELG, CERN, GILD, HSIC, INTU, LIFE, MSFT, PCLN, QCOM, MDLZ, CTRX, REGN
YHOO, SBUX, CSCO, NTAP, VMED, SBAC, EXPD, LLTC, PCAR, XLNX, TXN, ADI, SIAL, FISV, ADSK, DELL, FFIV, ORCL, COST, MNST, ADBE, GOOG, GRMN, NWSA, DISCA, AMAT, CTSH, FOSL, KLAC, VIAB, NUAN, STX, LBTYA, WDC, AKAM, ALTR, CHKP, FAST, MCHP, SNDK, EQIX, LMCA, CTXS, CHRW, INTC, SIRI, BIDU, VRSK, ADP, AMZN, BRCM, CMCSA, DTV, EBAY, ESRX, EXPE, LINTA, MU, MXIM, MYL, NVDA, SRCL, SYMC, VRTX, WFM, WYNN, XRAY, PRGO, FB, ALXN, AMGN, BMC, CA, CELG, CERN, GILD, HSIC, INTU, LIFE, MSFT, PCLN, QCOM, MDLZ, CTRX, REGN
Moving Above 30 DMA =2
ROST, SPLS
Moving Below 30 DMA = 4
AAPL, BIIB, MAT, VOD
Staying Below 30 DMA
DLTR,
ORLY, PAYX, BBBY, ISRG, ATVI, AVGO, SHLD, GOLD
Fifteen Week Intermediate Term Market Trend: Neutral
Short Term Market Trend: Up
7 comments:
Dave, Many thanks for sharing your analysis and set-ups.
Trade Simple Charts....
Dave
I am confused about how you are using Breadth vs advancers/decliners. I assume if Breadth is positive then advancers lead decliners and vice versa. Yet in the thursday post you said:
Thursday – weakened, advancers led
Wednesday – strengthened, advancers led
Monday- strengthened, advancers led
Friday – weakened, decliners led
Thursday – strengthened, decliners led
For the 1st Thursday it is indicated Breath Weakened, advancers led. For the 2nd, Breadth strengthened decliners led.
Can you clarify please?
Thanks for all your help, encouragement and dedication
Mike
Mike,
Don't know if Dave will answer but if you look to the previous day's ADVN/DCLN that's where the correlation is. So last Weds DCLN lead ADVN 1.58:1 and Thursday DCLN lead ADVN 1.20:1 there was a .38 decrease in DCLN therefore breadth strengthened. Same with this week: Weds ADVN/DCLN 10:1 and Thursday ADVN/DCLn 1.28:1. so a 8.72 decrease in ADVN. Although they declined from the previous day, they still led. Hope this helps if Dave doesn't clarify.
Mike,
I needed to correct the symbols for NYSE advancers: $ADVN and decliners $DECN.
Dave,
Just in case you peek in, here's the pattern on RGLD I was looking at. I know in past classes you had negated alot of H/S patterns students presented to you. http://screencast.com/t/GLeldxXIV.
Thank you for the comments last night.
Gary
Link correction:
http://screencast.com/t/Uwl3DYRFWSZK
Thanks Gary that cleared things up nicely. Much appreciated!
Mike
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