Wednesday, January 23, 2013

CREE, GOOG, ISRG, IBM Soar...NFLX Up Huge...AAPL Crushed in After-hours Trading...

Just three of nine sectors moved higher in front of AAPL earnings after the close on Wednesday… XLK, XLY and XLI were the strongest sectors.   XLB was the weakest sector. 

Breadth weakened as decliners led advancers…1.08 to 1 on the NYSE and 1.00 to 1 on the NASDAQ…

Wednesday – weakened, decliners led
Tuesday – strengthened, advancers led
Monday – MLK Holiday
Friday – weakened, advancers led
Thursday – strengthened, advancers led

The SPY inched to another new high close as the market was mixed before AAPL earnings.  After the close NFLX +36.54, +35.39%, FFIV +5.89 and AAPL -50.51, -9.83% reported earnings.  NFLX soared, AAPL was crushed as both traded outside the MMM expected move.

All eyes will watch Thursday morning to see if AAPL is the catalyst for a potential rollover in the broad market.  Be prepared to protect profits.

The chart continues to indicate that the uptrend is more likely to continue, but may be ready for a bull flag pullback.

SPY up 24 cents at 149.37...volume 111.8104.4 million shares…
VIX up 0.03 at 12.46
TNX down -0.02 at 18.33…
TLT down 18 cents at 120.09…
XLF
 down 1 cent at 17.30…volume 37.4 million shares

AAPL up 9.23 at 514.00volume 30.5 million shares…
FB up 9 cents at`30.82on volume of 48.8 million shares…EPS Jan 30…bull flag bounce


Look for stocks with good earnings and guidance to rise and those with either weak earnings or guidance likely to fall in priceThe earnings pause seems to be vanishing as traders again reacted to strong earnings today, MSFT earnings on Thursday.

Wednesday Price Action to AM EPSATI +0.92%, BHI +0.80%, CHKP +1.44%, MCD +0.57%, UTX +0.69%, COH -16.36%

Earnings to Watch this Week:
Tuesday – AMD, CA, CREE, CSX, DAL, DD, FCX, GOOG, IBM, ISRG, JNJ, PETS, RF, TXN, TRV, VZ
Wednesday – ATI, ALTR, AMGN, AAPL, BHI, CHKP, COH, FFIV, MCD, NFLX, SNDK, URI, UTX, WDC
Thursday – MMM, ALK, T, BMY, CHRW, CELG, CRUS, CY, INFA, ESI, JNPR, KEY, KLAC, MXIM, MSFT, SCSS, LUV, SWK, SBUX, TPX, UNP, UAL, VRSN,
Friday – HAL, PG, WY


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Technical Commentary:
The SPY made another new high close.  QQQ +0.61%, DIA +0.53%, SPY +0.16% and IWM -0.24% as AAPL shares bounced before reporting earnings after the close.  FB inched higher.

The Euro was down 6 pips to close at 1.3315 on Wednesday forming a sideways consolidation pattern in its strong uptrend.

Trade what you see on the chart of your position.  If it is breaking out of resistance take the trade or stay with the uptrend according to your rulesIf the stock begins to rollover protect your profits.

Disk storage stocks cooled off in front of earnings as WDC -0.61% reported after the close and STX -3.35% EPS Jan 28. 

Like many other stocks coal stocks JRCC, ANR, ACI, CNX and BTU pulled back slightly on Wednesday.  Chinese solar stocks TSL and LDK settled back in their bull flag patterns.


The Market Forecast Green Line is in the upper reversal zone. 

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Setups
Breakout:  NTES, VIAB, ROST, NTAP, CERN, MOS, SOHU, QCOM, ZION, MGM, NUAN, LCC, TRIP, COST, ROST

Diagonal Breakout:  BAC, DECK, SBAC, JDSU, CLF

Bull Flag:  BRCM, C, GOOG, BIDU, GES, SMH, UAL, SWI, HLF, YELP, CRM, EXPE, NKE, STRZA, ADSK, ANF, SNDK, AMZN, EBAY, CTSH, RAX, FAST, TIF, STI, RIMM, STX, CTRP, FOSL, F, JOY, GILD

Gap Up:  NFLX, FFIV

Gap Down:  AAPL, ALTR, SNDK, WDC, CRUS


Moves
Gap Up:  GOOG, ISRG, IBM, CREE, VECO

Gap Down:  COH,

Breakout:  KBH, SINA, SWK, LEN, LNKD, FFIV, EQIX, DE, IWM, SPY, FAS, LIFE, A, UNG, PHM, TOL, SHLD, JNPR, EXPD, WAG

Bounce: NFLX, NTES, ADBE, CTXS, VMW, RCL, CRUS,
REGN, TSL, WDC, FSLR, FB, LVS, X, ATI, ANR, V, AKS, ADI, GMCR, APOL, PCAR 

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44 of 100 NDX stocks closed higher on Wednesday…


Leading NDX 100 stocks included:  ISRG, GOOG, SYMC, FFIV, STRZA, CA, CTXS, AAPL, MSFT, CHKP

Lagging NDX stocks included:  ALXN, STX, FOSL, SHLD, SPLS, GRMN, GILD, ESRX, VRTX, CSCO

Leading stocks> +2% on Wednesday included: CREE, NFLX, GRPN, SWKS, VECO, IBM, CRUS, SINA, RCL, TSLA, YELP, CRM

Lagging stocks < -2.0% included:  COH, MCP, LDK, SSYS, CLF, RIMM, TSL, HLF, UCO, F

Stocks to Watch on Thursday…
Holding Above 30 DMA = 85
SBUX, CSCO, VMED, SBAC, EXPD, LLTC, PCAR, XLNX, TXN, ADI, SIAL, FISV, ADSK, DELL, FFIV, ORCL, COST, ADBE, NWSA, DISCA, AMAT, CTSH, FOSL, KLAC, VIAB, NUAN, STX, LBTYA, WDC, ALTR, CHKP, FAST, MCHP, SNDK, EQIX, STRZA, CTXS, CHRW, INTC, SIRI, BIDU, VRSK, ADP, AMZN, BRCM, CMCSA, DTV, EBAY, EXPE, LINTA, MU,  SRCL, SYMC, VRTX, WYNN, FB, CA, CELG, GILD, HSIC, INTU, LIFE, PCLN, QCOM, MDLZ, CTRX, ROST, SPLS, BMC, AVGO, ATVI, SHLD, YHOO,MAT, MSFT, MYL, NTAP, MXIM, CERN, WFM, XRAY, PAYX, VOD, DLTR, ISRG

Moving Above 30 DMA = 2
GOOG, ORLY               

Moving Below 30 DMA = 1
ALXN                                 

Staying Below 30 DMA
ESRX, PRGO, AKAM, REGN, AMGN, GRMN, NVDA, MNST, AAPL, BIIB, BBBY, GOLD


Nine Week Intermediate Term Market Trend: Up
Short Term Market Trend: Up

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