Monday, January 14, 2013

SPY Holds Breakout as DIA, IWM Rise Slightly...AAPL Down Big after iPhone Demand Rumors...


Six of nine sectors moved higher on Monday… XLI, XLP and XLY were the strongest sectors.   XLK was the weakest sector. 

Breadth weakened on Monday as decliners led advancers…1.00 to 1 on the NYSE and 1.12 to 1 on the NASDAQ…Breadth strengthens as advancers increase and or decliners decrease.  Breadth weakens as advancers decrease and or decliners increase.

Monday – weakened, decliners led
Friday – weakened, advancers led
Thursday – weakened, advancers led
Wednesday – strengthened, advancers led
Tuesday – strengthened, decliners led


The SPY stayed above resistance again on Monday.  Thursday’s SPY breakout was by only 47 cents so traders should continue to watch closely if prices rollover and be prepared to protect profits, However it appears that the uptrend is more likely to continue.


SPY down .10 cents at 146.97...volume 89.5 million shares…
VIX up .16 cents at 13.52
TNX down -0.18 at 18.57…
TLT down .33 at 11952…
XLF
 down.05 cents at 17.06…volume 38.2 million shares

AAPL down - 18.55 at 501.75…volume 26.2 million shares on rumors of weak demand for iPhone 5…EPS Jan 23
FB down .77 cents at`30.95…on volume of 98.8 million shares…EPS Jan 30


As earnings season begins look for stock selectivity to increase as stocks with good earnings and guidance will likely rise and those with either weak earnings or guidance likely to fall in price.  This selectivity and the typical pause waiting for EPS announcements has so far kept the SPY in a narrow range and may continue to do so for the next several days.

Earnings to Watch this Week:
Tuesday – LEN
Wednesday – EBAY, GS, JPM, USB
Thursday – AXP, BAC, COF, C, FAST, INTC, UNH, XLNX
Friday – GE, JCI, SLB, STT, STI


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Technical Commentary:

The SPY formed a potential hanging man for the third day as it stayed above horizontal.  The SPY down 10 cents trailed DIA +0.13% and IWM +0.05%RIMM, NFLX, SHLD and COH broke through resistance on Monday and gave fresh entry signals.  FB formed a bearish engulfing pattern after a nine-day uptrend.

Trade what you see on the chart of your position.  If it is breaking out of resistance take the trade or stay with the uptrend according to your rules.  If the stock begins to rollover protect your profits.

The Euro rose another 40 pips to close at 1.3381 on Monday.  A strong Euro is generally positive for U.S. stocks.

Disk storage stocks WDC +1.64% and STX +2.04% paused.  Coal stocks ANR, ACI, BTU, CNX, JRCC and WLT continued their 5-day slide.  Chinese solar stocks TSL and LDK are forming bull flag patterns in their multi-week uptrend.



The Market Forecast Green Line is in the upper reversal zone. 

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Setups
Breakout:  SINA, JNPR, TXN, WDC, NUAN, CRM, ADSK, IWM, CTRP, BRCM, RCL, NKE, EBAY, REGN, ADBE

Bull Flag:  QCOM, GLW, JRCC, TRIP, CERN, ANR, ROST, FSLR, COST, ZION, ADI, GMCR, IBM, VIAB, CRUS, YELP, GOOG  

Moves
Breakout: RIMM, NFLX, STRZA, NTES, SPY, EXPD, FAS, CTXS, JOY, STX, FOSL, GILD, LIFE, FB, AMZN, WAG, EQIX, SNDK

Bounce:  DECK, CTSH, FFIV, SBAC, PCAR


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47 of 100 NDX stocks closed higher and four were unchanged on Monday…


 LMCA spin off Liberty Media resulting in symbols STRZA and LMCADNDX listed symbol is STRZA.

Leading NDX 100 stocks included:  DELL, SHLD, CSCO, STX, DTV, AMZN, WDC, PAYX, SPLS, CTRX

Lagging NDX stocks included:  AAPL, FB, GOOG, ALTR, ESRX, MXIM, MCHP, GOLD, VOD, LBTYA

Leading stocks> +2% on Monday included:  RIMM, HLF, DECK, COH, MCP, VECO, NFLX

Lagging stocks < -2.0% included:  CRUS, LDK, AKS, GMCR, ANR, FB, CSTR, X


Stocks to Watch on Tuesday…
Holding Above 30 DMA = 77
SBUX, CSCO, VMED, SBAC, EXPD, LLTC, PCAR, XLNX, TXN, ADI, SIAL, FISV, ADSK, DELL, FFIV, ORCL, COST, ADBE, GOOG, NWSA, DISCA, AMAT, CTSH, FOSL, KLAC, VIAB, NUAN, STX, LBTYA, WDC, ALTR, CHKP, FAST, MCHP, SNDK, EQIX, STRZA, CTXS, CHRW, INTC, SIRI, BIDU, VRSK, ADP, AMZN, BRCM, CMCSA, DTV, EBAY, EXPE, LINTA, MU,  SRCL, SYMC, VRTX, WYNN, FB, ALXN, CA, CELG, CERN, GILD, HSIC, INTU, LIFE, PCLN, QCOM, MDLZ, CTRX, ROST, SPLS, VOD, BMC, ESRX, REGN, AVGO, ATVI

Moving Above 30 DMA =5
AKAM, ISRG, PAYX, SHLD, YHOO   

Moving Below 30 DMA = 4
MAT, MXIM, MYL, XRAY       

Staying Below 30 DMA
PRGO, AMGN, GRMN, NVDA, NTAP, ORLY, WFM, MNST, MSFT, AAPL, BIIB, DLTR, BBBY, GOLD

Eight Week Intermediate Term Market Trend: Up
Short Term Market Trend: Up

1 comment:

TraderBobb said...

Dave:
Thanks so much for this blog and the trading rooms etc.
Appreciate it All!
Robert
CANI_212