Stocks Consolidate Above ST Support on Partial Trading Day...F, FB Rise in an Uptrend Trade...

Seven of nine sectors moved lower on Monday’s half day of trading… XLB, XLY, and XLF were the strongest sectors.   XLE was the weakest sector.  Markets are closed on Tuesday for the Christmas Holiday.  Have a Happy Holidays!

Breadth strengthened on Monday as decliners led advancers…1.47 to 1 on the NYSE and 1.66 to 1 on the NASDAQ…

Friday – weakened, decliners led

Thursday – strengthened, advancers led

Wednesday – weakened, decliners led

Tuesday – strengthened, advancers led

NDX 100 annual changes prior to the open Monday, Dec. 24, 2012:

Additions: ADI, CTRX, DISCA, EQIX, LBTYA, LMCA, REGN, SBAC, VRSK, WDC

Deletions: APOL, EA, FLEX, GMCR, LRCX, MRVL, NFLX, RIMM, VRSN, WCRX

If short-term trades were exited through target or stop, begin to look for re-entry on a valid signal.

SPY down 44 cents at 142.35...volume 53.9 million shares…

VIX unchanged at 17.84…
TNX +0.20 at 17.74…

TLT down 22 cents at 122.25…
XLF down 3 cents at 16.37…volume 24 million shares

AAPL up 83 cents at 520.16…volume 6.3 million shares …

FB up 67 cents at`26.93…on volume of 28.2 million shares…

­­­__________________

Technical Commentary:

The SPY closed down 44 cents at 142.35 continuing to form a new potential bull flag.  Monday’s low was higher than Friday’s low. The VIX closed unchanged and did not confirm the SPY move down.

The weight of the evidence continues to suggest that the current 5 week uptrend is likely to continue.

The Euro closed down 6 pips at 1.3182 on Monday. TNX was higher, TLT, bonds fell 22 cents and XLF moved down 3 cents to 16.37.

Disk storage stocks WDC was down 28 cents on its first day in the NDX and STX down 17 cents.  Coal stocks ANR, ACI, BTU, CNX and WLT were lower on Monday in bull flag type patterns.

The Market Forecast Green Line is in the upper reversal zone.

____________________

Chart Targets:

SPY = 146.82 short-term resistance flagpole target
ES = 1,449 161% Fib extension

1,459 = 200% measuring

EUR/USD = 1.3281 161% Fib extension

Short-term support at
1.3126 = Euro

140.88 = SPY

85.18 = SPXL
1,419, 1,405 = ES
2,609 = NQ

Setups:

Bull Flag: X, NFLX, FB, BIDU, EXPE, GOOG, VMW, MCP, MNST, NTAP, ORCL, FAS, ZION, STI, IBM, SBUX, CELG, DELL, DECK, TRIP, SMH, ADI, AKS, SPY, DIA, IWM, XRAY, RIMM, ALTR, XLNX, ADBE, ADP, ADSK, BMC, CHKP, CMCSA, CSCO, CTSH, CTXS, FOSL, INTC, INTU, MSFT, MU, NVDA,

Moves:

Bull Flag Bounce: AMZN, LNKD, ALXN, YHOO

Bounce Continuation:  F, URE, V, GMCR, DLR, EXPD, TSLA, URI, FAST

Pause:  WDC, STX, AMAT, SNDK, LLTC, SIAL, SWK, SIAL, COST, BAC, C, ATI, MRVL, VECO, BIIB, GILD, GRMN, EBAY, BRCM, VIAB, PCAR, DISCA

____________________

37 of 100 NDX stocks closed higher and two unchanged on Monday…

Leading NDX 100 stocks included: FB, ALXN, YHOO, NWSA, PRGO, VMED, CA, AMZN, MNST, FAST

Lagging NDX stocks included: SPLX, BIDU, DELL, MU, MSFT, ISRG, FFIV, CTXS, VRTX, KLAC

Leading stocks> +2% on Monday included:  F, CDE

Lagging stocks < -2.0% included: HLF, GRPN, MCP, YELP, RIMM, ANR, TSL, UNG, SOHU, FSLR

Stocks to Watch on Wednesday…

Holding Above 30 DMA = 78
YHOO, MYL, XRAY, SBUX, HSIC, FB, CSCO, NTAP, REGN, SBAC, VMED, ADI, EXPD, LLTC, MXIM, PCAR, TXN, XLNX, BIIB, CELG, EBAY, LIFE, SIAL, AMZN, FISV, ADSK, DELL, FFIV, MAT, MRVL, MU, ORCL, BRCM, COST, MNST, ADBE, DISCA, GOOG, GRMN, NWSA, SYMC, WYNN, AMAT, CTSH, ADP, FOSL, INTU, KLAC,  VIAB, LBTYA, NUAN, STX, WDC, AKAM, ALTR, CHKP, DTV, EQIX, FAST, LMCA, MCHP, SNDK, CTXS, ALXN, CHRW, NVDA, ESRX, EXPE, INTC, SIRI, BIDU, WCRX, BMC, CERN, CMCSA, VRSK, VRTX, CA, LINTA, MSFT, WFM

Moving Above 30 DMA = 1

PRGO

Moving Below 30 DMA = 3

DLTR, MDLZ, SYMC

Staying Below 30 DMA

AMGN, CTRX, ORLY, PAYX, QCOM, SPLS, BBBY, GILD, ISRG, SRCL, ATVI, VOD, AVGO, PCLN, AAPL, SHLD, GOLD, ROST

Fifteen Week Intermediate Term Market Trend: Neutral

Short Term Market Trend: Neutral