Tuesday, December 18, 2012

SPY,IWM, FAS Lead Stocks in Bull Flag Bounce Continuation...


Eight of nine sectors moved higher on TuesdayXLE, XLK, and XLF  were the strongest sectors

Breadth
strengthened on Tuesday as advancers led decliners …2.86 to 1 on the NYSE and 2.53 to 1 on the NASDAQ…

Monday – strengthened, advancers led
Friday – strengthened, decliners led
Thursday – weakened, decliners led
Wednesday – weakened, decliners led

NDX 100 annual changes take effect prior to the open Monday, Dec. 24, 2012:
Additions:  ADI, CTRX, DISCA, EQIX, LBTYA, LMCA, REGN, SBAC, VRSK, WDC
Deletions:  APOL, EA, FLEX, GMCR, LRCX, MRVL, NFLX, RIMM, VRSN, WCRX

It is time to consider moving stops to protect profits of the last two days.


SPY up 1.60 at 145.37...volume 177.7 million shares…
VIX -0.77 at 15.57
TNX +0.64 at 18.27…
TLT down -1.24 at 120.51…
XLF
up 24 cents at 16.57…volume 70.3 million shares

AAPL up 15.07 at 533.90…volume 22.3 million shares …
FB up 96 cents at`26.75…on volume of 57.7 million shares…

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Technical Commentary:
The SPY formed a large white candle as its bull flag bounce continued for the second straight day.  SPY closed above its 144.55 T1 with a flagpole target at 146.82.  The VIX closed lower and did confirm the SPY move up today.

The ES closed up 14.25 at 1,441.50 and NQ futures closed up 39.50 at 2,703.25 as AAPL continued its bounce.  Trading has shifted to the H3, March contract.

Chart Signals has been stating since Nov 23 that the weight of the evidence continues to suggest the Nov 16 low was likely to hold.  Now that more than three weeks has past and you can look at the charts from hindsight, Chart Signals hopes that you see the value of being objective in your analysis and not being swayed by every wind of opinion that doesn’t stand the test of time and disappears like a thief in the night.

The Euro continued its seven day, 300+ pip rise and closed up 66 pips at 1.3229 on Tuesday.  TNX, interest rates jumped, TLT, bonds dropped down -1.24 and XLF soared 24 cents to 16.33.

FFIV, APOL and STX were among SPX and NDX leaders on Tuesday.

Digital disk storage stocks STX and WDC had big gains today.  Coal stocks ANR, ACI, BTU, CNX and WLT were on the rise once again.


SPY – large white candle, bull flag bounce continuation
AAPL gap white candle, MACD divergence, below 30 DMA
FB – white candle bounce in channel, BO target 29.63
FAS – large white candle, breakout continuation
AMZN – large white candle, horizontal breakout
EXPE – white candle, bull flag bounce continuation at T1
STX – large white candle, bull flag bounce at T1
VIAB – white hammer, bull flag bounce
RIMM – hammer, EPS Dec 20
CRUS – white candle, counter trend bounce continuation
F – white candle at T1
PHM –white candle resistance breakout
SWK – gap bullish engulfing, bull flag bounce and breakout
SWI – white candle, 30 DMA bounce setup
RAX – large white candle breakout
URI – large white candle bull flag bounce and breakout
YELP – black candle pull back to bull flag bounce area, close below 30 DMA
XHB – large white candle diagonal breakout, above 30 DMA
XRT – white spinning top, bounce to resistance, above30 DMA

BO = breakout, DBO = diagonal breakout, CT = counter-trend, IT = intermediate term, ST = short term


The Market Forecast Green Line is in the upper reversal zone.

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Chart Targets:
SPY = 146.82 short-term resistance flagpole target
ES =
1,449 161% Fib extension
1,459 = 200% measuring
EUR/USD = 1.3281 161% Fib extension

Short-term support at
1.3126 = Euro
144.55 = SPY
90.09 = SPXL
1,432 = ES
2,691 = NQ


Setups:
Bull Flag:  MCP, AMGN, CELG, MNST, MXIM, DELL, AMAT, DECK

Moves:

Bull Flag Bounce:  EBAY, FB, NTAP, SNDK, BRCM, VIAB, PCAR, ALTR, LLTC, MRVL, XLNX, BIIB, SIAL, URI, TSLA, SWK, DLR, SMH, GLW, WDC, VECO, ADI

Bounce Continuation:  SPY, DIA, IWM, FAS, AMZN, BAC, C, V, LNKD, VMW, STI, GILD, GRMN, STX, COST, EXPD, XRAY, URE, IBM, DISCA, X, AKS,

Pause:  TRIP, SBUX

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86 of 100 NDX stocks closed higher on Tuesday…


Leading NDX 100 stocks included: GMCR, FFIV, APOL, STX, AKAM, VRTX, MRVL, FB, LIFE, FOSL

Lagging NDX stocks included: EA, RIMM, VOD, ISRG, MDLZ, CELG, ROST, SBUX, GOLD, YHOO

Leading stocks > +2% on Tuesday included:  RAX, URI, GRPN, ATI, JDSU, ANR, CRUS, CLF, WDC, ANF, FB, GS, BAC, SWK, PHM, TPX, RVBD, GLW, VECO, ZAGG, F, LDK, JNPR, SLB, CMG, TIF, HUM, STI, AKS, CIEN, URE, TBT

Lagging stocks < -2.0% included: YELP, FAZ

Stocks to Watch on Wednesday…
Holding Above 30 DMA = 83  
YHOO, MYL, RIMM, XRAY, SBUX, HSIC, GILD, FB, CSCO, NTAP GMCR, VMED, EA, EXPD, LLTC, MXIM, PCAR, TXN, XLNX, AMGN, BIIB, CELG, EBAY, LIFE, SIAL, AMZN, FISV, ADSK, DELL, FFIV, MAT, MRVL, MU, ORCL, BRCM, SRCL, COST, MNST, ADBE, GOOG, GRMN, NWSA, SYMC, WYNN, AMAT, CTSH, PAYX, ADP, APOL, FOSL, INTU, KLAC, NFLX, VIAB, FLEX, NUAN, STX, AKAM, ALTR, CHKP, DTV, FAST, MCHP, SNDK, CTXS, ALXN, CHRW, LRCX, MDLX, NVDA, BBBY, ESRX, EXPE, INTC, ISRG, SPLS, SIRI, BIDU, WCRX,
BMC, CMCSA, CERN, VRTX

Moving Above 30 DMA = 7
CA, DLTR, LINTA, MSFT, ORLY, QCOM, WFM

Moving Below 30 DMA = 0


Staying Below 30 DMA
ATVI, VOD, AVGO, PCLN, AAPL, SHLD, GOLD, PRGO, VRSN, ROST


Fifteen Week Intermediate Term Market Trend: Neutral
Short Term Market Trend: Up

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