Friday, December 7, 2012

DJIA, SPX Rally as Financials Breakout...AAPL Stumble Leads NDX Lower...

Eight of nine sectors moved higher on FridayXLB, XLF, and XLP were the strongest sectors. 

Breadth
strengthened on Friday as advancers led decliners1.22 to 1 on the NYSE and decliners led advancers 1.17 to 1 on the NASDAQ…

SPY up 43 cents at 142.41...volume 108.7 million shares…
VIX down -0.68 at 15.90
TNX up 0.46 at 16.27…
TLT down 1.16 at 124.43…
XLF
up 12 cents at 16.02…volume 36.2 million shares

AAPL down 13.99 at 547.24…volume 28.1 million shares
FB up 51 cents at`27.48…on volume of 51.7 million shares…

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Technical Commentary:
The SPY formed a gap up spinning top at horizontal resistance above its 30 DMA.  The VIX closed lower and did confirm the SPY move up today.
 
The ES closed up 4.50 at 1,417.25 as the 1,400 support area held again on Thursday…NQ futures closed down 18.75 at 2,656.25 as AAPL fell to support again.

Coal stocks ANR, WLT, BTU, ACI continued higher and CNX and JRCC paused as WDC continued to move big and STX paused.

The weight of the evidence continues to suggest the Nov 16 low is likely to hold and Friday’s price action suggests the SPY bounce is preparing for a potential breakout which did occur in the DIA, leading to a continuation to higher levels.

The Euro closed down 41 pips at 1.2965 on Friday after bouncing at its 30 DMA.

TNX, interest rates rose and TLT, bonds moved down -1.16.  XLF moved 12 cents to 16.02.


SPY – spinning top, bull flag at T1, above 30 DMA
AAPL large black candle, lower close higher low, below 30 dma
FB – bullish harami, bull flag, BO target 29.63
FAS –bounce potential hanging man, BO higher close
AMZN – spinning top, BO setup, BO target 259.24
EXPE – inverted hammer, bull flag
STX – black candle, BO target 29.98
VIAB – large white candle BO continuation
RIMM – spinning top, BO setup
CRUS – spinning top at support, DBO setup
F – large white candle, bull flag bounce
PHM – spinning top confirms hammer, symmetrical triangle below 30 DMA
SWK – spinning top bounce in bull flag above 30 DMA
SWI – spinning top, bull flag setup
RAX – hammer, bull flag setup above 30 DMA
URI – spinning top, high close, BO setup
YELP gap bullish engulfing, bull flag setup under 30 DMA
XHB – black candle, DBO setup, below 30 DMA
XRT – gap black candle above 30 DMA

BO = breakout, DBO = diagonal breakout, CT = counter-trend, IT = intermediate term, ST = short term


The Market Forecast Green Line is pointed up above the lower reversal zone.

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Chart Targets:
SPY = 143.52 short-term resistance
ES =
1,419.50…1,425 short-term resistance
EUR/USD = 1.3140, 1.3172 short-term resistance

Short-term support at
1.2954, 1.2878 = Euro
140.69 = SPY
83.20 = SPXL
1,396 = ES
2,626 = NQ

Setups:
Bull Flag:  DECK, F, MCP, RAX, RCL, EXPE, GMCR, YELP, AKAM, EBAY, FFIV, ORCL, BIG, KAR, COH, OSK, ROVI, CHL, EXPD, PCAR, PAY,

Horizontal Setup:  JNPR, SMH, URI, AMZN, RIMM, TXN, ULTA

Diagonal Setup:  CMG, CRUS, ADSK, CRM


Moves:
Breakout: WDC, DE, STI, TER, IBM, GRA

Bounce:  GRPN, DECK, F, PXP, TSCO, TIBX, C, FAS, SWK, CTSH, EA, VMW, NKE, PCS, ACI, WLT, BTU, SHLD, AVP, CCO, FCX

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46 of 100 NDX stocks closed higher and one unchanged on Friday…


Leading NDX 100 stocks included: SHLD, CTXS, CHKP, BRCM, SNDK, VIAB, MNST, NTAP, ALTR, PCAR

Lagging NDX stocks included: GMCR, SHLD, CHRW, EXPD, PCAR, KRFT, INFY, WCRX, GILD, ESRX

Leading stocks > +2% on Friday included:  GRPN, LDK, TSL, YELP, ANR, FCX, CDE, DECK, ANF, HUM, F

Lagging stocks < -2.0% included: NTES, SOHU, FSLR, SWKS

Stocks to Watch on Friday…
Holding Above 30 DMA = 73
YHOO, MYL, ORLY, CERN, RIMM, XRAY, PCLN, SBUX, QCOM, HSIC, GILD, NTAP, CSCO, EXPE, GMCR, VMED, ATVI, EA, EXPD, LLTC, MXIM, PCAR, TXN,  XLNX, AMGN, BIIB, CELG, EBAY, LIFE, SIAL, AMZN, FISV, ADSK, AVGO, DELL, FFIV, MAT, MRVL, MU, ORCL, BRCM, SRCL, COST, MNST,
ADBE, CMCSA, GOOG, GRMN, NWSA, SYMC, WYNN, AMAT, CTSH, PAYX, ADP, APOL, FOSL, INTU, KLAC, NFLX, VIAB, FLEX, NUAN, STX, AKAM, ALTR, BMC, CHKP, DTV, FAST, MCHP, SNDK, VOD

Moving Above 30 DMA = 2
BBBY, CTXS

Moving Below 30 DMA = 5
ALXN, DLTR, KRFT, SIRI, WFM

Staying Below 30 DMA
CHRW, INFY, AAPL, NVDA, WCRX, SPLS, LRCX, ISRG, LINTA, SHLD, GOLD, MSFT, PNRA, INTC, BIDU, ESRX, VRSN, VRTX, CA, ROST


Fourteen Week Intermediate Term Market Trend: Neutral
Short Term Market Trend: Up

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