SPY Bull Flag as AAPL Falls to Support, X, ADBE Jump, NDX Annual Changes...

Eight of nine sectors moved lower on Friday… XLB, XLP, and XLI  were the strongest sectors. 

Breadth strengthened on Friday as decliners led advancers …1.15 to 1 on the NYSE and 1.03 to 1 on the NASDAQ…

Thursday – weakened, decliners led

Wednesday – weakened, decliners led

Tuesday – strengthened, advancers led

Monday – strengthened, advancers led

NDX 100 annual changes announced on Friday to take effect prior to the open on Monday, Dec. 24, 2012:

Additions:  ADI, CTRX, DISCA, EQIX, LBTYA, LMCA, REGN, SBAC, VRSK, WDC

Deletions:  APOL, EA, FLEX, GMCR, LRCX, MRVL, NFLX, RIMM, VRSN, WCRX

SPY down 52 cents at 142.11...volume 137.7 million shares…

VIX +0.44 at 17.00…
TNX -0.20 at 17.08…

TLT up 92 cents at 123.60…
XLF down 6 cents at 16.00…volume 35 million shares

AAPL down -19.90 at 519.79…volume 36 million shares …

FB down -1.42 at`26.81…on volume of 91.6 million shares…

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Technical Commentary:

The SPY formed a spinning top in a bull flag pattern above its 30 DMA.  The VIX closed higher and did confirm the SPY move down today.

The ES closed down 3.00 at 1,415 and NQ futures closed down 22.50 at 2,629.25 as AAPL fell to support.  Trading began to shift to the H3, March contract on Friday.

Coal stocks ANR, WLT, ACI and BTU, continued higher on Friday.

The weight of the evidence continues to suggest the Nov 16 low is likely to hold and Friday’s price action is part of a bull flag pattern.

The Euro broke through short-term resistance and closed up 86 pips to 1.3161 on Friday.  TNX, interest rates fell, TLT, bonds moved up 92 cents and XLF was down 6 cents to 16.00.

Chart Signals will be looking for a bull flag bounce next week.  Listed in today’s post are some of the bull flag patterns on the charts on Friday.

X +1.52, +6.81%, leads SPX with a diagonal breakout and chart target of 28.53.

ADBE +2.03, +5.71% white candle gap following earnings on Thursday

SPY – spinning top, bull flag setup, above 30 DMA

AAPL – gap down black candle, lower close at support, below 30 DMA

FB – bearish engulfing, channel, BO target 29.63

FAS – spinning top, bull flag setup

AMZN – spinning top, horizontal bull flag setup

EXPE – black spinning top, pause in bull flag bounce

STX – hammer, bull flag setup, BO target 29.98

VIAB – spinning top, bull flag setup

RIMM – white candle, new high close

CRUS – black candle, support break new low

F – large black candle, channel support break

PHM – doji, resistance breakout setup

SWK – black candle, bull flag setup

SWI – black spinning top, symmetrical triangle, above 30 DMA

RAX – bullish engulfing, bull flag bounce continuation, above 30 DMA

URI – spinning top, inside day, bull flag setup

YELP spinning top, bull flag bounce continuation, above 30 DMA

XHB – black candle, DBO setup or break of support setup, at 30 DMA

XRT – gap down white candle, break of support setup, close below 30 DMA

BO = breakout, DBO = diagonal breakout, CT = counter-trend, IT = intermediate term, ST = short term

The Market Forecast Green Line is in the upper reversal zone.

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Chart Targets:

SPY = 144.55 short-term resistance
ES = 1,438 short-term resistance

EUR/USD = 1.3140, 1.3172 reached short-term resistance on Friday

Short-term support at
1.30.61, 1.2990 = Euro

140.69 = SPY

82.53 = SPXL
1,396 = ES
2,626 = NQ

Setups:

Bull Flag:  SPY, FAS, MCP, AMZN, AMGN, CELG, EBAY, FB, GILD, GRMN, NTAP, SBUX, SNDK, STX, COST, BRCM, VIAB, MNST, PCAR, ALTR, LLTC, MRVL, MXIM, XLNX, BIIB, EXPD, SIAL, ATVI, XRAY, DELL, AMAT, URI, V, TSLA, TRIP, SWK, DLR, LNKD, SMH, DECK, GLW, URE, WDC, STI, IBM, VECO, ADI, DISCA,

Moves:

Gap Up:  ADBE

Bounce:  X, ANR, EXPD, VMW, WLT, BTU,

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44 of 100 NDX stocks closed higher and two unchanged on Friday…

Leading NDX 100 stocks included: WCRX, SIRI, ADBE, MU, VMED, BIDU, FOSL, YHOO, RIMM, KLAC

Lagging NDX stocks included: AVGO, FB, QCOM, AAPL, BRCM, FFIV, MNST, LIFE, APOL, MRVL

Leading stocks > +2% on Friday included:  LDK, X, AKS, CLF, TSL, FCX, ANR, SOHU, GRPN, RAX, FSLR

Lagging stocks < -2.0% included: CRUS, SWKS, FB, SLB, DECK, TRIP, HLF

Stocks to Watch on Monday…

Holding Above 30 DMA = 79  
YHOO, MYL, RIMM, XRAY, SBUX, HSIC, GILD, FB, CSCO, NTAP GMCR, VMED, ATVI, EA, EXPD, LLTC, MXIM, PCAR, TXN, XLNX, AMGN, BIIB, CELG, EBAY, LIFE, SIAL, AMZN, FISV, ADSK, DELL, FFIV, MAT, MRVL, MU, ORCL, BRCM, SRCL, COST, MNST, ADBE, GOOG, GRMN, NWSA, SYMC, WYNN, AMAT, CTSH, PAYX, ADP, APOL, FOSL, INTU, KLAC, NFLX, VIAB, FLEX, NUAN, STX, AKAM, ALTR, CHKP, DTV, FAST, MCHP, SNDK, VOD, CTXS, ALXN, CHRW, LRCX, MDLX, NVDA, BBBY, ESRX, EXPE, INTC, ISRG, SPLS, SIRI

Moving Above 30 DMA = 2

BIDU, WCRX

Moving Below 30 DMA = 5

CERN, CMCSA, ORLY, QCOM, VRTX

Staying Below 30 DMA

AVGO, BMC, WFM, PCLN, DLTR, AAPL, LINTA, SHLD, GOLD, MSFT, PRGO, VRSN, CA, ROST

Fifteen Week Intermediate Term Market Trend: Neutral

Short Term Market Trend: Down