Thursday, October 25, 2012

SPY Rallies, AAPL Misses Closes Flat in After-Hours, EXPE, CERN Up, DECK, VRSN Down...

Six of nine sectors moved up on Thursday…XLE, XLV and XLP were the strongest sectors.

Breadth
strengthened on Thursday as advancers led decliners…1.52 to 1 on the NYSE and 1.37 to 1 on the NASDAQ…

Exchange      NYSE     NASDAQ
Advancers     1,796        1,432
Decliners       1,180        1,040

SPY up .41 cents at 141.43...volume 134.4 million shares
VIX - .21 at 18.12…
TNX +0.53 at 18.28…
TLT down -62 cents at 120.86…
XLF
up at 15.88…volume 52.8 million shares

AAPL down - 7.29 at 609.54volume 23.4 million shares
FB down .67 at`22.56… volume 76.18 million shares…


Technical Commentary:
The Euro traded down 28 pips and did not  confirm Wednesday’s hammer in its current bull flag pattern.  The SPY reversed Wednesday’s 40 cent selloff and closed 41 cents higher in front of AAPL earnings.

Non-confirmations of the short-term down trend include a MACD histogram bullish divergence on QQQ, NQ, AAPL, Financials XLF and the Euro failing to break support, interest rates TNX continuing to move higher and failure of AAPL missed earnings to selloff for more than five minutes.  If AAPL holds support, we look for a rally to appear in the broad index led by rising financials and a rebound in tech stocks XLK. 

After the close AAPL reported EPS that missed, revenues that beat and lower guidance.  The stock opened after hours lower by about 25 points and rallied to end near unchanged.  AMZN reported a larger than expected loss and rallied from its after-hours low. 

Hot coal stocks pulled back for a third day.

ES holds 1,400 support levels.  NQ holds 2,650 support and continues forming a potential MACD histogram bullish divergence.

The SPY closes at its 141 support level. 


Earnings after the Close: EXPE, CERN up…DECK, VRSN, CA down


Earnings Watch:
Positive Reactions PCAR, WYNN, AKAM, SYMC, MYL, RCL, GDI, CRR, GTI, ISIL, TER, INGR, LSI, FB, SLAB, PLCM, TUP, AVY, REGN, GILD, PNRA, TMO, DOW, VMW, COH, VMED, VECO, WHR, HOG, R, RSH, CSL, LXK, BTU, YHOO, CAT, RVBD, SNDK, WCC, EBAY, MAN, COF, RHI, LRCX, STT, MAT, ISRG, GS, C, PII, DPZ

Negative ReactionsFFIV, CLF, CROX, SWI, SHW,  TPX, NFLX, ALTR, CPWR, EAT, GLW, JNPR, ALXN, SRCL, CHRW, RF, WDC, DD, CIT, RF, ALV, BMRN, STI, GOOG, IBM, APOL, CHKP, INTC, INFY, CHKP, AXP, XLNX, MSFT, CMG, MS, FLEX, AMD, ETFC, PH, APD, ALGN, MLNX


Monday –ZION, TXN
Tuesday –BRCM, SIAL
Wednesday – ORLY
ThursdayAAPL, AMZN, BIDU, CNX, CERN, CTXS, ESRX, EXPE, FSLR, GILD, BIIB, CA, CELG, EA, KLAC, MXIM, MYL, VRSN, VRTX, XRAY, PHM, INFA, ESI
Friday - CMCSA


Chart Targets:
SPY = 147.88 2.61 Fib
ES =
1,466.002.61 Fib on ESZ2
EUR/USD =
1.3095 1.60 Fib, 1.3345S&R Measuring

Short-term support at
141, 139.40 = SPY
1,400, 1,390 = ES
2,650, 2,610 = NQ


Setups:
Bull Flag: DE, MAN, FB, BTU, ANR, ACI, JRCC, CNX, WLT, VMED, FAS, C, PNRA, SLAB, PLCM, TUP, AVY, GILD, CHL, EXPD, TIF, AMGN, CMCSA, DTV, X, FISV, FOSL, EBAY, LINTA, LRCX, ISRG, COF, CYN, COH, R, RSH, INFA, LXK, RVBD, HOG, LCC, FSLR,

Resistance BO Setup: LVS, URI, GMCR, SWKS, ADBE, BIDU, CTRP, CDE, HUM, ORLY, CRUS, TSL

At Support: HLF, V, NWSA, AAPL, CTSH, GOLD, QCOM, FLEX, AVGO, JDSU, GOOG MXIM, ORCL, PAYX, PCLN, LLTC, CELG, VRTX, ETFC, MCHP, NVDA, GLW, JNPR, ATI, CSCO, WFM, LULU


Moves:
Gap Up: PCAR, WYNN, AKAM, SYMC, MYL, RCL, CCL,
Gap Down: FFIV, CLF, CROX,
 
Support BO: FAST, AMZN, DISCA, MA, BRCM

Resistance BO: TMO, SHLD,

Bounce: MU, SRCL, ORLY, CHRW, CHKP, LIFE, ALXN, AVGO, CDE, LVS, ZAGG, F, CMG, NFLX, RHI, COST, ESRX, STX, BBBY, SBUX, CSL, GDI, CRR, GTI,


61 OF 100 NDX stock closed higher on Thursday…


Leading NDX 100 stocks included: MU, PCAR, WYNN, SRCL, AKAM, SYMC, MYL, ORLY, ALXN, AVGO

Lagging NDX stocks included: FFIV, AMZN, BRCM, EXPE, MNST, EA, SNDK, CTXS, GILD, NWSA

Leading stocks > +2% on Thursday included: RCL, CDE, LVS, ZAGG, F, CMG

Lagging stocks < -2.0% included: CROX, CLF, ESI, UAL, SWI, DECK, RVBD, CRUS, LDK, FB, TSL, ANR, ATI

Stocks to Watch on Friday…

Holding Above 30 DMA
VMED, CMCSA, LINTA, SIRI, SHLD, FISV, AMGN, BIDU, ISRG, ADBE, FOSL, LRCX, MAT, YHOO

Moving Above 30 DMA = 9
AKAM, MYL, ORLY, PCAR, RIMM, SRCL, SYMC, TXN, WYNN

Moving Below 30 DMA = 2
EBAY, GILD

Staying Below 30 DMA
CHRW, EXPD, FAST, NFLX, CTSH, GOLD, INTU, NWSA, PCAR, SIAL, VIAB, ADP, ALXN, CELG, EA, ESRX, MNST, MXIM, PNRA, TXN, VRSN, WFM, XRAY, BIIB, FLEX, GOOG, LIFE, MYL, SNDK, AKAM, CHKP, ORCL, APOL, INFY, ORLY, VRTX, CERN, COST, SPLS, AMZN, BMC, EXPE, FFIV, GRMN, HSIC, LLTC, PCLN, VOD, WCRX, ADSK, DLTR, DTV, NUAN, QCOM, SBUX, AAPL, ATVI, BRCM, CA, MSFT, NTAP, PAYX, XLNX, CTXS, GMCR, SYMC, CSCO, MU, ALTR, BBBY, AMAT, KLAC, MCHP, AVGO, ROST, STX, NVDA, DELL, INTC, MRVL, KRFT

Six Week Intermediate Term Market Trend: Neutral
Short Term Market Trend: Down

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