SPY Fades the Open...AAPL, NDX, Bonds, VIX Head Lower as TNX Rates Rise...

Five of nine sectors moved higher on Friday…XLB, XLP and XLI were the strongest sectors. 

Breadth weakened on Friday as advancers led decliners 1.31 to 1 on the NYSE and decliners led advancers 1.18 to 1 on the NASDAQ… 

Exchange     NYSE    NASDAQ

Advancers    1,685      1,121
Decliners      1,283      1,329

SPY up 1 cent at 146.14...volume 124.8 million shares

VIX down -0.22 at 14.33…

TNX up +0.67 at 17.32…
TLT down 1.59 at 121.15…
XLF unchanged at 16.06…

AAPL down -14.21 at 652.59…volume 21.2 million shares …

FB down -1.04 at 20.91… volume 40.5 million shares…

The Market Forecast green line is pointed up.

YTD At a Glance

                      October         YTD

SPY                +1.51%         +17.56%     

AAPL              -2.18%          +61.82%

EXPE               -0.41%         +99.93%        

STX                 -4.43%          +83.79%       

VRTX               +6.32%         +78.92%       

GILD                +4.67%         +69.63%       

EBAY              +0.74%         +60.67%

Technical Commentary:

The SPX and INDU traded near recent highs while the NDX, COMPQ and RUT were weaker trading mid-range level of the past three weeks.

SPY opened higher following a Jobs Report of 114,000 new jobs in September that met expectations and upward revisions for jobs in July and August.  The SPY hit 147.16 just 16 cents below its high on Sep 14 and began to pull back closing up just 1 cent for the day and forming a black candle.  Financials XLF finished flat while interest rates TNX moved higher and bonds TLT fell for a second straight day.  The Euro closed slightly higher but below its overnight high.

We continue to see mixed signals in the consolidation of the past three weeks which is typical during a consolidation chart pattern.

For the week Financials XLF and Healthcare XLV were the strongest sectors.   Energy XLE and Technology XLK were the laggards as AAPL, FB and STX were weak.

(click image to enlarge)

Earnings Season starts next week as AA announces Tuesday after the close. 

Earnings to Watch:

Tuesday - AA

Wednesday – COST

Thursday – FAST

Friday – JPM, WFC, INFY

Chart Targets:

SPY = 147.88 2.61 Fib

ES = 1,466.00 2.61 Fib on ESZ2

EUR/USD = 1.3095 1.60 Fib, 1.3345 S&R Measuring

Short-term support at
143.09, 142.33 = SPY
1,424, 1,417.50 = ES
2,775, 2,762.25, 2,750 = NQ

Setups:

Bull Flag: NTES, JDSU, SINA, LNKD, SWK, RVBD, LVS, HUM, FB, IWM, MS, ANR, CLF, SOHU, BTU, JRCC, ACI, QCOM, SHLD, EXPE, ZAGG

Resistance Setup: XLF, BAC, C, WFC, STI, AMZN, LIFE, PHM, VMW, IBM, DHR, GS, RCL, CDE, GLW, DE, GRPN, LCC, UAL, HLF, BPOP, GME

At Support: CMG, MCP, SBUX, AMAT, BBBY, WLT

Break of Support:  CTXS

Gap Up: AVP, OI,

Resistance BO:  STZ, VIAB, ZION, GRMN

Bounce: GRPN, TBT, FCX, JRCC, V, F, TPX, PAY, GNW, HUN,

39 of 100 NDX stocks closed higher on Friday…

Leading NDX 100 stocks included:  MNST, DLTR, DELL, WFM, APOL, LRCX, FLEX, MXIM, ROST, ADP

Lagging NDX stocks included: GMCR, CTXS, FFIV, NVDA, PNRA, AAPL, INFY, ORCL, EXPE, EBAY

Leading stocks > +2% on Friday included:  GRPN, INFA, TBT, ESI

Lagging stocks < -2.0% included: FB, LDK, CMG, DECK, TSL, CRUS, UCO, LNKD, VECO, ANR

Stocks to Watch on Monday…

Holding Above 30 DMA = 34

GS, RVBD, C, FAS, FCX, RCL, STI, BAC, CDE,  ZION, LVS, LNKD, HUM, GLW, DE, DHR, IBM, SWK, V, FB, A, CHL, GRPN, NTES, CRM, UAL, ZAGG, HLF, TIF, TSL, VMW, F, TBT, TPX

Moving Above 30 DMA = 0

   

Moving Below 30 DMA = 2

SWI, TSLA

Staying Below 30 DMA

SINA, TLT, ATI, CMG, INFA, JDSU, SOHU, CLF, MCP, ANR, ESI, ICE, MOS, SLB, ANF, CREE, CRUS, JNPR, URE, COH, CROX, NKE, VECO, CSTR, DECK, UCO, AKS, DLR, SMH, SWKS, X, WDC, CIEN, GES, FAZ, LDK

Eighteen Week Intermediate Term Market Trend: Up

Short Term Market Trend: Up