SPY, DIA Lower at Support, AAPL, BIDU, GOOG, Advancers Rise...

All sectors moved down on Wednesday…XLF, XLU and XLK were the strongest sectors.

Breadth strengthened on Wednesday…however decliners led advancers 1.63 to 1 on the NYSE and decliners led advancers 1.17 to 1 on the NASDAQ…

Exchange     NYSE    NASDAQ

Advancers    1,140      1,122
Decliners      1,862      1,316

SPY down .92 cents at 143.28...volume 124.2 million shares

VIX down .08 at 16.29…

TNX down .29 at 16.91…
TLT up 86 cents at 122.81…
XLF down 1 cent at 15.94…

AAPL up 5.06 at 640.91…volume 18.2 million shares …

FB down 59 cents at`19.64… volume 39.3 million shares…

The Market Forecast green line is pointed down.    

Technical Commentary:

A complex consolidation in the broad market like a triangle or trading range is accompanied by many mixed signals some bearish and some bullish.  The bearish signals include a NDX, RUT and SOX that broke support, a Market Forecast green line moving lower, numerous stocks that broke horizontal support and many others that have closed below their 30 DMA.

As AMZN and PCLN broke support today, AAPL confirmed Tuesday’s long tail hammer, GOOG formed a spinning top (potential morning star pattern) in a bull flag, BIDU formed a bullish harami at support and NFLX formed an inverted hammer in a bull flag pattern..

While the Euro and SPY have pulled back they trade just above short-term support.  The DIA closed at short-term support.  IWM -0.13, -0.16%, was relatively strong forming a hammer like candle.  Potential MACD histogram bullish divergences on the SPY, IWM and many individual stocks indicating potential weakness in the recent pullback.

More bullish are interest rates TNX that are above recent lows and bonds TLT below recent highs.  Financial stocks XLF and the VIX are perhaps the biggest non-confirmations for the downside.  Today XLF, as the strongest sector, closed down just one cent and formed a doji in its bull flag pattern while the VIX, 16.29, closed slightly lower suggesting fear is not accelerating. The other daily non-confirmation was the meaningful rise in advancing issues and the drop in declining issues on both the NYSE and NASDAQ.

A good trader will follow their rules and trade a bounce to the upside and a break of support to the downside.  It is indeed a market with opportunity in both directions as we begin earnings season.

Coal stocks CNX, ANR, WLT, BTU, JRCC and ACI paused after Tuesday’s and remained relatively strong on Wednesday.

Earnings Season started on Tuesday.

 

Earnings to Watch:

Tuesday – AA -0.42, -4.60% beat on EPS and revenues, sees 2012 global aluminum demand at +6% vs. previous +7%

YUM +5.28, +8.04% beat EPS, raised guidance

Wednesday – COST +1.91, +1.92%, beat EPS and revenues

Thursday – FAST BMO

Friday – JPM, WFC, INFY BMO

Chart Targets:

SPY = 147.88 2.61 Fib

ES = 1,466.00 2.61 Fib on ESZ2

EUR/USD = 1.3095 1.60 Fib, 1.3345 S&R Measuring

Short-term support at
143.09, 142.33 = SPY
1,424, 1,414.50 = ES
2,735, 2,695, 2,650 = NQ

Setups:

Bull Flag: NTES, SINA, SWK, HUM, MS, TBT, XLF, BAC, WFC, STI, PHM, HLF, OI, V, F, PAY, ZION, AMGN, ADP, CHRW, CELG, CERN, CTSH, CMCSA, FFIV, GILD, LIFE, NFLX, NWSA, ORLY, PRGO. GRPN

Hammer: NTES, MS, BAC, ISRG, MU, IWM

Inverted Hammer: PHM, NFLX, EXPE, HUM

Bullish Harami: SOHU, BIDU, CTXS, EBAY, WFC, SRCL, DLTR, AMAT

Bullish Engulfing: SINA, ZION

Resistance Setup: GTI

At Support: RVBD, ZAGG, FAST, MYL, AKAM, ALXN, BIDU, CTXS, XRAY, DLTR, ESRX, FOSL, HSIC, INFY, ISRG, MU, MYL, NTAP, ORCL, SRCL, SYMC, TXN, SOHU, EBAY, EXPE,

Break of Support:  FB, AMZN, BIIB, CA, GRMN, KLAC, MRVL, MCHP, SIAL, LVS, IWM, ADSK, AMAT, BRCM, DTV, EXPD, INTC, MSFT, NUAN, NVDA, QCOM, STX, SBUX

Gap Down:  MNST, XLNX, CVX lowered guidance, CMI lowered guidance

Resistance BO:  KWK

Bounce: SINA, C, BIDU, V, DLTR, JRCC, ANR, BTU, CNX, ACI, HUM, STI, RSH, NFX, FST, UPL, SM

19 of 100 NDX stocks closed higher on Wednesday…

Leading NDX 100 stocks included:  SIRI, DLTR, COST, BIDU, EBAY, LINTA, CTXS, AAPL, SHLD, ROST

Lagging NDX stocks included: MNST, GMCR, FFIV, CELG, AVGO, NTAP, VIAB, ALTR, CSCO, VRTX

Leading stocks > +2% on Wednesday included:  SINA

Lagging stocks < -2.0% included: RVBD, TSL, GRPN, MCP, ZAGG, COH, CSTR, ATI, HLF, FB, CLF, WDC, SWKS, SWI, STI

Stocks to Watch on Thursday…

Holding Above 30 DMA = 24

GS, C, FAS, FCX, RCL, STI, BAC, CDE,  ZION, HUM, GLW, DE, DHR, IBM, V, CHL, GRPN, NTES, UAL, HLF, TPX, CLF, X, ANR

Moving Above 30 DMA = 0   

Moving Below 30 DMA = 4

CRM, F, RVBD, TBT 

Staying Below 30 DMA

A, LNKD, LVS, SWK, TIF, TSL, TSLA, VMW, FB, ZAGG, FB, SWI,SINA, TLT, ATI, CMG, INFA, JDSU, SOHU, MCP, ESI, ICE, MOS, SLB, ANF, CREE, CRUS, JNPR, URE, COH, CROX, NKE, VECO, CSTR, DECK, UCO, AKS, DLR, SMH, SWKS, X, WDC, CIEN, GES, FAZ, LDK

Eighteen Week Intermediate Term Market Trend: Neutral

Short Term Market Trend: Down