Euro, SPY, NQ, XLF Hold Support as VIX Moves Lower....

Five of nine sectors moved up on Friday…XLY, XLB and XLK were the strongest sectors.

Breadth weakened on Friday as decliners led advancers …1.43 to 1 on the NYSE and 1.36 to 1 on the NASDAQ…

Exchange      NYSE     NASDAQ

Advancers     1,216        1,032
Decliners       1,739        1,407

SPY down 8 cents at 141.35...volume 146 million shares

VIX - 0.31 at 17.81…
TNX -0.78 at 17.50…

TLT up 1.78 at 122.64…
XLF down 8 cents at 15.80…volume 56.5 million shares

AAPL down – 5.54 at 6049.00…volume 36.4 million shares …

FB down 62 cents at`21.94… volume 73.2 million shares…

Technical Commentary:
AAPL earnings will likely become the most unexpected earnings reaction for the current earnings period.  AAPL missed estimates by 8 cents, revenues beat and lowered Q1 guidance on revenues by $3 billion and EPS by $3.70 below Street expectations. .  The stock opened after hours lower by about $25 and rallied to end near unchanged.  On Friday the stock opened down just 11 cents, rallied to 614 and then sold off more than $20 from its high before bouncing and closing -5.54 at 604.

AMZN also missed expectations reporting a larger than expected loss, revenues below expectations and lowered revenue guidance for Q4.  AMZN also rallied from its after-hours lows and opened higher on Friday and gained +15.32, +6.87% closing near its high of the day. 

Seemingly both situations appear to be a “sell the rumor and buy the news’” situation.  AAPL had already sold off $92 and 13% and AMZN $37 and 14% in the weeks leading up to their earnings.  It appears that traders were expecting the miss and once the news was out it was more of a buying opportunity.

Non-confirmations of the short-term down trend include a MACD histogram bullish divergence on QQQ, NQ, AAPL, Financials XLF and the Euro failing to break support, interest rates TNX continuing to move higher and failure of AAPL missed earnings to selloff for more than five minutes.  If AAPL holds support, we look for a rally to appear in the broad index led by rising financials and a rebound in tech stocks XLK. 

Coal stocks were higher following earnings from ACI and CNX with ANR, BTU and JRCC rising after a three day pullback.  WLT was the exception down 33 cents.

The Euro formed a hammer at a higher low support in its current bull flag pattern.  TNX, interest rates were lower, TLT, closed bonds higher and XLF was down 8 cents forming a hammer at horizontal support.

The SPY was down just 8 cents closing near its 141 support level for the fourth day this week.  The VIX moved slightly lower.

ES holds 1,400 support levels.  NQ holds 2,650 support and continues forming a potential MACD histogram bullish divergence.

Earnings Watch:

Positive Reactions – EXPE, CERN, AMZN, MXIM, CMCSA, VAR, AAN, EMN, APKT, ACI, OSTK, PCAR, WYNN, AKAM, SYMC, MYL, RCL, GDI, CRR, GTI, ISIL, TER, INGR, LSI, FB, SLAB, PLCM, TUP, AVY, REGN, GILD, PNRA, TMO, DOW, VMW, COH, VMED, VECO, WHR, HOG, R, RSH, CSL, LXK, BTU, YHOO, CAT, RVBD, SNDK, WCC, EBAY, MAN, COF, RHI, LRCX, STT, MAT, ISRG, GS, C, PII, DPZ

Negative Reactions – VRSN, CA, DECK, VPRT, GT, LPNT, ESI, FFIV, CLF, CROX, SWI, SHW,  TPX, NFLX, ALTR, CPWR, EAT, GLW, JNPR, ALXN, SRCL, CHRW, RF, WDC, DD, CIT, RF, ALV, BMRN, STI, GOOG, IBM, APOL, CHKP, INTC, INFY, CHKP, AXP, XLNX, MSFT, CMG, MS, FLEX, AMD, ETFC, PH, APD, ALGN, MLNX

Monday – BIDU, LIFE, VRTX, CRUS

Tuesday – ADP, EA, FISV, SIRI, STX, WCRX, EQIX, JDSU, X
Wednesday – GRMN, FSLR

Thursday – SBUX, LNKD, LVS
Friday - ANR

Chart Targets:

SPY = 147.88 2.61 Fib
ES = 1,466.002.61 Fib on ESZ2
EUR/USD = 1.3095 1.60 Fib, 1.3345S&R Measuring

Short-term support at
141, 139.40 = SPY
1,400, 1,390 = ES
2,650, 2,610 = NQ

Setups:
Bull Flag: MAN, FB, BTU, ANR, JRCC, CNX, WLT, VMED, FAS, C, PNRA, SLAB, PLCM, TUP, AVY, GILD, CHL, TIF, AMGN, DTV, X, FISV, FOSL, EBAY, LINTA, LRCX, ISRG, COF, CYN, COH, R, RSH, INFA, LXK, RVBD, HOG, LCC,

Resistance BO Setup: CMCSA, CREE, LVS, URI, GMCR, SWKS, BIDU, CTRP, CDE, HUM, ORLY, CRUS, F, TMO,

At Support: HLF, V, AAPL, GOLD, JDSU, GOOG, ORCL, PAYX, VRTX, ETFC, MCHP, NVDA, CSCO, WFM, LULU, MA, BRCM

Moves:

Gap Up: DV, EXPE, CERN, ACI, VAR, EMN, ACI

Gap Down: DECK, VRSN, VPRT, GT, LPNT, CA

 

Support BO: CTSH, FLEX, FAST, DISCA

Resistance BO: ADBE, SHLD

Bounce: NFLX, AMZN, ACI, EXPD, CMCSA, FSLR, QCOM, MXIM, JNPR, DE, AVGO, PCLN, LLTC, CELG, CHRW, LIFE, CMG, COST, CSL, GDI, CRR

44 OF 100 NDX stock closed higher on Friday…

Leading NDX 100 stocks included: EXPE, NFLX, CERN, AMZN, SHLD, MXIM, PCLN, CMCSA, TXN, QCOM

Lagging NDX stocks included: VRSN, CA, MU, MNST, EA, ATVI, FLEX, CHKP, CTSH, WCRX

Leading stocks > +2% on Friday included: CIEN, ANR, JNPR, CSTR, CREE

Lagging stocks < -2.0% included: DECK, ESI, DLR, CLF, TSL, ZAGG, TBT, FB, MCP, ATI, GLW, C

Stocks to Watch on Monday…

Holding Above 30 DMA
VMED, CMCSA, LINTA, SIRI, SHLD, FISV, AMGN, BIDU, ISRG, ADBE, LRCX, MAT, YHOO, AKAM, MYL, ORLY, PCAR, SRCL, SYMC, TXN, WYNN

Moving Above 30 DMA = 8

CERN, CHRW, EBAY, EXPD, EXPE, MXIM, NFLX, PNRA

 
Moving Below 30 DMA = 2
FOSL, RIMM

Staying Below 30 DMA

GILD, EXPD, FAST, CTSH, GOLD, INTU, NWSA, PCAR, SIAL, VIAB, ADP, ALXN, CELG, EA, ESRX, MNST, TXN, VRSN, WFM, XRAY, BIIB, FLEX, GOOG, LIFE, MYL, SNDK, AKAM, CHKP, ORCL, APOL, INFY, ORLY, VRTX, COST, SPLS, AMZN, BMC, FFIV, GRMN, HSIC, LLTC, PCLN, VOD, WCRX, ADSK, DLTR, DTV, NUAN, QCOM, SBUX, AAPL, ATVI, BRCM, CA, MSFT, NTAP, PAYX, XLNX, CTXS, GMCR, SYMC, CSCO, MU, ALTR, BBBY, AMAT, KLAC, MCHP, AVGO, ROST, STX, NVDA, DELL, INTC, MRVL, KRFT

Eleven Week Intermediate Term Market Trend: Neutral

Four Day Short Term Market Trend: Neutral