Thursday, July 5, 2012

SPY, DIA, QQQ, IWM Breakouts Pause as Euro Moves lower...NFLX, ROST, AAPL Move Higher...


The Euro moved lower after the ECB cut it benchmark lending rate a quarter percent as expected.   As the USD strengthened, TNX interest rates moved lower and TLT bonds moved higher.  XLF was the weaker sector following falling interest rates.  Markets seemed to be on hold prior to Friday’s Unemployment and Jobs Reports.   

The IWM, QQQ, SPY and DIA closed above horizontal resistance theoretically new support.   ADP reported private-sector new jobs in June of 176,000.

Seven of nine sectors moved lower on Thursday.  XLY, XLK, and XLI were the strongest sectors.

Breadth weakened as decliners led advancers 1.28 to 1 on the NYSE and 1.16 to 1 on the NASDAQ.


Exchange      NYSE    NASDAQ
Advancers     1,317       1,150
Decliners       1,689       1,339

SPY lost 62cents on 126.1 million shares closing above its 30 DMA for the sixth consecutive day.  The SPX moved down -6.44 at 1,367.58. 


The Market Forecast green line is in the upper reversal zone.

AAPL up +10.53 at 609.94 on 17.3 million shares...

FB up 27 cents at 31.47 on volume of 10 million shares...

GRPN +0.03, +0.34%


Chart Patterns
 Breakout:

Breakout Pullback:  JDSU. DIA, COP, ZAGG, PCLN, NVDA, SPY, X, VECO, SHLD, IWM, FAS, MU, CIEN, ALXN, SPG, CTXS, DIS, FMC, FISV, URE, INTU, LLTC, HSY, AMZN, VMED, APOL, LLTC

Breakout Continuation: NFLX, VMI, VRSN, TFM, MLNX, GOOG, ADP, CSTR, GMCR, AAPL, QQQ, LNG, CL, KMB, LEN, DE, MOS, POT,  

Breakout Setup: AKS, ADSK, AKAM, AVGO, COF, SHW, MNST, EXPE, ALGN, MCHP, GOLD, AMAT, VMW, ALTR, MCP, GLW, MTW,


Daily Bull Flags Setups: COST, ESRX, KLAC, EBAY, C

Flag Bounce:  TSLA, CRUS, ULTA

Support Bounce: CROX


Technical Commentary:
The SPY, DIA and IWM pulled back slightly following a weaker Euro and falling interest rates.  SPY and DIA pulled back to their horizontal breakout levels and bounced.  QQQ moved higher as AAPL, NFLX and ROST rose.  

Many stocks formed bearish candles that can be a level for traders to move stops up just below the low of the bearish candle on short-term trades.  Stay with the trend and watch for a potential pause or pull back in the many breakout signals that occurred on Monday and Tuesday and give a second entry opportunity.   


Thursday Highlights:
SPY closes down -62 cents
The Euro moved down 133 pips, closed at 1.2389
TNX -0.34
VIX gained +0.84 at 17.50
XLF down -22 cents at 14.59


37 of 100 NDX stocks closed higher on Thursday…


Leading NDX 100stocks included NFLX, ROST, GMCR, RIMM, DLTR, ORLY, SHLD, SIRI, BIDU, WCRX

Lagging NDX stocks included INFY, LIFE, ATVI, LRCX, CTXS, DTV, GRMN, CMCSA, APOL, FOSL

Leading stocks > +2% on Thursday included PCX, DECK, CROX, NTES, TPX, FAZ, LDK, COH, GES

Losing stocks < -2.0% included FAS, TSL, BAC, C, GS, CDE

Stocks to Watch on Friday

Holding Above 30 DMA = 43
CRUS, CIEN, ICE, GES, CSTR, BAC, DLR, HLF, URE, LNKD, MOS,  V, UAL, CHL, ESI, DE, FAS, RCL, STI, ZION, AKS, JDSU, CREE, X, ANF, ATI, CLF, CRM, DHR, FCX, GLW, GS, IBM, MCP, SLB, SMH, SWKS, TSL, VECO, ZAGG, INFA, PCX, TSLA, UCO

Moving Above 30 DMA = 5
CROX, LDK, NTES, SWI, TLT

Moving Below 30 DMA = 4
A, C, CDE, WDC

Staying Below 30 DMA
SOHU, SWK, TBT, HUM, CMG, SINA, F, RVBD, GRPN, FAZ, NKE, LDK, VMW, TIF, ANR, JNPR, LVS,  TPX, COH

Four Week Intermediate Term Market Trend: Up
Short Term Market Trend: Up

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