Monday, July 2, 2012

RUT Leads Stocks Higher on Weaker Euro, VIX...Markets Closed Wednesday...


The Euro, TNX interest rates and the VIX moved lower on Monday.  TLT bonds moved higher as did XLF financial stocks, RUT and the SPY.  The broad indexes were led by the RUT, small caps, which gained +9.45, +1.18%.  Generally when small caps lead it is bullish.  Breakout setups and entries are the most common pattern on charts today.  The SPY closed above horizontal resistance following the RUT which closed above resistance on Friday.

Markets close early on Tuesday and are closed Wednesday in celebration of July 4th.


Seven of nine sectors moved higher on Monday.  XLU, XLF, and XLK were the strongest sectors.

Breadth weakened as advancers led decliners 2.40 to 1 on the NYSE and 1.77 to 1 on the NASDAQ.


Exchange      NYSE    NASDAQ
Advancers     2,141       1,607
Decliners          892          905

SPY gained $3.32 on relatively heavy buying at 212.2 million shares closing above its 30 DMA for the fourth consecutive day.  The SPX moved up +33.12 at 1,362.16. 


The Market Forecast green line is pointed up.

AAPL up 8.52 at 592.52 on 14.3 million shares...

FB down 32 cents at 30.77 on volume of 14.1 million shares...

GRPN -1.12, -10.54%


Chart Patterns

Breakout: SPY, X, ALXN, VECO, SHLD, SPG,

Breakout Continuation: IWM, CTXS, FAS, MU, CIEN, COST, CL, ESRX, KMB, DIS, VMI, FMC, FISV, LEN, URE, INTU, DE, LLTC, HSY, AMZN VMED, APOL, MOS, POT

Breakout Setup: JDSU, DIA, AKS, COP, ADP, ADSK, AKAM, CSTR, GMCR, AVGO, ZAGG, NFLX, COF, VRSN, SHW, MNST, ADSK, TFM,




Technical Commentary:
The SPY is in an up trend and the RUT is leading the broad market higher.  Stocks provided the typical pull back on Monday that stayed above Friday’s mid-range and is generally bullish.  Stay with the trend and watch for a potential pause or breakout on Tuesday.   


Monday Highlights:
SPY closes up +40 cents
The Euro moved down 84 pips, closed at 1.2576
TNX -0.79
VIX dropped -0.28 at 16.80
XLF up +9 cents at 14.72


47 of 100 NDX stocks closed higher on Monday…


Leading NDX 100stocks included SIRI, MNST, ALXN, CHRW, MU, NWSA, PCLN, EXPE, ISRG, AMGN

Lagging NDX stocks included FAST, DLTR, NTAP, NVDA, LIFE, CHKP, PCAR, FOSL, NUAN, BIDU

Leading stocks > +2% on Monday included PCX, TSL, VECO, ZAGG, V, HLF, FAS, ESI, UAL

Losing stocks < -2.0% included GRPN, TPX, SOHU, CRUS, CROX, SINA, TSLA, JNPR, CREE, LDK, UCO, FAZ, SWK, WDC, F, TBT, RVBD

Stocks to Watch on Tuesday

Holding Above 30 DMA = 40
CRUS, CIEN, ICE, GES, CSTR, BAC, DLR, HLF, URE, LNKD, MOS,  V, UAL, CHL, ESI, DE, FAS, RCL, STI, AKS, JDSU, CREE, X, ANF, ATI, C, CLF, CRM, DHR, FCX, GLW, GS, IBM, MCP, SLB, SMH, SWKS, TSL, VECO, ZAGG

Moving Above 30 DMA = 1
TLT

Moving Below 30 DMA = 5
INFA, SOHU, SWK, TBT, TSLA

Staying Below 30 DMA
HUM, CMG, SINA, SWI, NTES, A, CDE, F, RVBD, GRPN, FAZ, DECK, NKE, LDK, CREE, WDC, VMW, ESI, TIF, UCO, ANR, JNPR, X, CROX, LVS, PCX,  TPX, ZION, COH

Four Week Intermediate Term Market Trend: Up
Short Term Market Trend: Up

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