The SPX, INDU, COMPQ, NDX, RUT, TRAN and SOX gained between a low of +0.53% on the RUT to a high of +3.38% on the SOX. If your portfolio return was above this range then you beat the market for week 1.
In the short run I will deliver tips for those wanting to improve in my daily insights. Since I really don't want to bother other readers with information that will not be useful to them, I will likely separate the trading improvement knowledge and make it availble ONLY to those who took the simple step of setting a goal and letting Chart Signals know they want to change in 2011 as discussed in the January 1 post.
Chart Signals will add an emphasis for those that really want to Stop the Insanity and move to the next level in their trading.
If you want to move to the next level in your trading, send your email, so you don't miss out!
After a big rise on Monday the SPX traded in a range of 1,261 to 1,278. The SPX gained +1.10% for the week. The SPX reached 1,278 on Thursday, just 3 points below its 1,281 December breakout price target. All four broad indexes did hang in there by forming potential hanging man candle patterns.
(click image to enlarge)
SPX potential hanging man barely confirmed the bearish harami
INDU potential hanging man barely confirmed bearish harami inside day
COMPQ potential hanging man small bearish engulfing
RUT potential hanging man
Breadth strengthened on the NYSE but remained negative and weakened further on the NASDAQ on Friday as decliners led advancers 1.28 to 1 on the NYSE and 1.68 to 1 on the NASDAQ…
Exchange NYSE NASDAQ
Advancers 1,308 981
Decliners 1,675 1,655
(click image to enlarge)
Index Chg. Close Direction Confirmation
VIX -0.26 17.14 Down No – SPX
SOX +0.99 425.76 Up No – COMPQLeading stocks > 1% on Friday included LVS, GMCR, PCX, MCP, UNP, FAZ, SPG, SOHU, AMD, TSL, LDK, NETL, SLB, FCX, SWN
The market bounced off lower levels following the best unemployment report in over 18 months notwithstanding the media effort to spin the report as a negative. November’s report which was also accompanied with a negative spin and a failed sell off was revised upward from 39.000 new jobs to 71,000. With a 32,000 positive adjustment or what is an 82% change, can anyone actually consider first reports viable criteria for buying or selling?
Positives – NDX, SOX, VIX, Bullish weekly candles on indexes, BIDU, GOOG, PCLN, AAPL, NFLX
Negatives – RUT, XLF, Weak advancers/decliners, EURO, QCOM, AMZN
Interest rates moved lower on Friday and bonds closed slightly higher. The Euro fell 95 pips to 1.2904 at 5 pm ET.
Three of nine sectors moved higher on Friday with Energy XLE +0.72% and Utilities XLU +0.36% leading all sectors.
Looking ahead to next week earnings season starts with a few reports, a large number of companies reporting beginning on January 17. Earnings will likely become the primary catalyst for stock movement over the next two weeks.
Mon – AA
Tues – INFY
Thu – INTC
Fri - JPM
Moves on Friday
Continuation – BIDU, NETL,POT, CRUS, F, GOOG, WYNN, VMW, DOW, WFC, BAC, GR, WLT, BYI, CF, NUE, STLD, A, V,
Resistance Breakout – PNC, ILMN, AMZN
Bull Flag Bounce –USD, CAT
MACD Divergence Bounce –
Support Bounce – FFIV, JASO, TLT
Bear Flag Break – SPG
Break of Support – GES, AZO, ICE, GME, ATW, WFMI
Setup Charts to Watch
Bull Flag Setups – XLF, FAS, STI, GS, FCX, SLB, CLF, SWK, WHR, UNG, C, DHR, JEC, ZION, NDAQ, URE, FLS, SNDK, ATI, DECK,NYX, AMD, AGU, AIV, IPI, MOS, AKS, X,
Horizontal Breakout – UNP, LVS , DE
MACD Divergence – CMG, CREE, CAKE, NFLX, CSTR, AKAM, LDK
Bear Flag Setups –ACN, SKXSPX
Resistance: 1,281, 1,300
Support: 1,256, 1, 241, 1,220
The short term 3 day trend is neutral.
The six-month trend is up.
The twelve-month trend is up.
The six-month trend is up.
The twelve-month trend is up.
Trade with the trend of the chart you are trading.
Bullish entry signal is a bounce off support and a break above the high of the low day or a break out of horizontal resistance.
Bearish entry signal is a break of short term support or a bounce down from the 30 DMA or other resistance.
AAPL +2.39 – white candle, new high close
AMZN -0.37 – small bearish engulfing, barely confirms bearish harami
NFLX +1.31 – hammer like at support and MACD bullish divergence
QCOM -0.94 – bearish engulfing pattern
GOOG +2.94 – potential hanging man did not confirm shooting star
BIDU +1.79 – spinning top and MACD bullish divergence
NDX 100 stocks stronger than the NDX include WYNN, NVDA, SBUX, MRVL, EXPE, WCRX, FLEX, BIDU, DTV, TEVA, WFMI, DLTR, MU, AMGN and PCLN.
Stocks weaker than the NDX: APOL, VMED, MAT, EBAY, ILMN, CHKP, INFY, DELL, STX, QGEN, CTRP, QCOM, LIFE, KLAC and ESRX.
Stocks to Watch on Monday
Holding Above 30 DMA
SINA, WLT, NDAQ, USD, GR, RVBD, BYI, CAT, X, FWLT, PCX, CLF, INFA, VMW, SNDK, CRUS, HOLX, FCX, FDX, AKS, A, AMD, DHR, DOW, FLS, PNC, DE, FAS, JEC, STI, SWK, WHR, ZION, ACN, BAC, NYX, ESI, IPI, MCP, ATI, CF, AIV, GS, URE, AGU, MOS, POT, UNP, BA, SWN, UNG, ARUN, NETL, LVS, VECO, CRM, PCP, TBT, TSL, DLR, GMCR, HANS, HUM, HLF, HSY, TIE, UAL
Moving Above 30 DMA = 2
LDK, SLB
Moving Below 30 DMA = 1
UCO
Staying Below 30 DMA
CHL, CREE, DECK, GME, ICE,CAM , SPG, ATW, GES, TLT, HAS, MHS, CAKE, MA, SKX, V, CSTR, CMG, SOHU, MCD, FAZ, NTES, LXK
CHL, CREE, DECK, GME, ICE,
Short Term Market Trend: Neutral
35 comments:
Bummer on the "low feedback" numbers... :-(
Maybe it is true, that only 20% of the students, in this case, are fully-committed enough to deliver, 80% of the results.
So lets focus on the winners!
Dave, your energy is contagious(sp?)!! Thank you!
Scott L of Nashville
Didn't the SPX, comp and NDX form a Hang Man? Was "SPX Hangs in there" a pun?
Dave,
Don't give up on the rest of us that did respond.
Thanks
Don
Week 1 of 2011 went very well...Thanks Dave for your efforts in stopping my insanity!!
51 more weeks to go...when put in weekly perspective that seems like such a short time. Dave your inspiration and committment inspire me to higher levels of committment in my trading
Grateful Student
Deborah
Ok Dave,
E-mail finally sent. 2011 off to a great start.
Brian
Dave
Ready to make the change in 2011.
Thanks
Tony
Surprising to read about the low feedback numbers. Your idea of having Chartsignals, its value beyond measure, and another channel is stellar. Yes, some people are listening and responding!
Thanks Dave for all you do! Please take it to the next level in 2011!
Dave,
Just sent an email. Sorry about the delay. I am excited to make 2011 the best ever. May the best of 2010 trading be the worst for 2011.
Many thanks,
Sudeep
Aloha Dave
I have been your student for over 5 years now and has been an incredible learning experience. To me if you create separate blogs then I'll just read both.
Being a regional coordinator for user groups and a user group leader for a few groups, I have seen a "HUGE" percentage of students fail miserably over the last 5 years. I would have too if not for your support. I feel I have probably gained 15 years of experience in 5 years and based on conversations over the last year I've had with many floor traders, fund managers, financial advisers, day traders etc., I firmly believe my 5 years of experience and knowledge is greater these folks longer experiences in the industry.
Now I just have to get the next 15+ years out of your head into mine.
Mahalo
john
Dave,
I have taken the 1st step to improving my trading in 2011. I would like to reiterate Don's comment. "PLEASE" don't give up on those of of us, that do want to improve and are willing to put in the effort.
I would like to thank you for your effort and the service that you provide. It is greatly appreciated and is extremely effective.
I find your commitment an inspiration! I want to work harder and more importantly smarter, just knowing the effort you put in to help me be successful. Improving your blog to make "us" better traders. It is quite frankly astonishing! Thank you for your patience, professionalism, and perseverance in your attempt to reach that end. I am quite sure you are succeeding in many many cases.
I have had some success. However, it's not what I would like or what I believe I am capable of. You have shown what is possible, and that motivates me to strive for improvement, by refining strategies and improving rules.
Thank you and God bless,
A grateful student
Dave, being new to trading and this blog, I'm very grateful for your advise and guidance. I look forward to reading your post every day. Thank you for all you do for your students!
Boy am I glad I sent in my email - looks like the "special" blog will be super charged - Thanks Dave
Dave I really appreciate your tireless work to teach us how to be successful traders. Our lack of discipline and understanding leads us to less than desired results. Ever since the first Active Investor talk 5 months ago, I have been hooked. I wanted to learn more. Thanks for all you do.
Dan S Iowa
Dear Dave,
I am so very grateful to you for all your teaching. I read Chart Signals daily, listen to your capstones and investor talks, take notes, and refer to them regularly.
My goals for this year are the following.
1. To continue forming a disciplined morning routine of analysis and trading.
2. To work at organizing and using my watch lists. I struggle with catagorizing them.
3. To work out a plan for total investment of my account. Unfortunately as I have been learning, I left the majority of my account in cash and have been "treading water" too long.
4. Learn, learn, learn
I am older and have a small account to trade. It is my dream to wisely invest what I have. I am very grateful that you, a person who has traded and profited for many, many years cares about "fledglings".
Although I cannot afford at this time to come to one of your live sessions. I look forward to meeting you some day.
Thank you, Dave, for your faithfulness.
Sincerely,
Pamela Snyder
Dave,
I want to stop the insanity!
We appreciate all that you do to help us. We want to learn!
Thank You!
Dave, As the leader of the Dallas user group, your blog is required reading. We start Saturday class with you insight and understanding.
After 5 years of listening to you, I still find nuggets of knowledge. They say people have to hear 7 times before they get it. In my case, maybe 8 or more.
I am positive my user group wants to do better in 2011 and will do what it takes to get there, even if they did not respond, so please don't give up on the rest of us.
The 4 day live was by far the most influential class, on my trading, that I have ever attended. Since that time my trading has been extremely successful thanks to you. Rules, Rules and Rules one time should be the battle cry in 2011!!!
Dave, I am positive everyone in my Dallas User group wants to be better in 2011, even though they did not respond to your request. And I apologize as I did not either. My goal is to definitely follow my rules, as taught in the 4 day live class, and achieve better results than i did in 2010.
Your blog is required reading at our monthly meetings. I help them read, understand and apply your insights. We are heavy into the technical's and some in my class listen to your every time you have a webex.
So please do not give up on those that did not respond. We all need a daily dose of DJ to be successful and perhaps a nudge to take action when we need to.
I never start a trading day without digesting your blog each morning.
Mike G from Dallas. a 5 yr Letterman like John
I am a member of the Dallas User Group and M.Gleason says it precisely..agree wholeheartedly! And sent you a personal email as back up. Dave your blog is very important to my daily routine!
Thank you for all you do.
B.Hesker
Hi Dave,
I am very interested in being included in your 'new blog' and making 2011 an improved trading year for me.
Thanks Dave!
Not so fast Dave!! I just got back from Haiti and one of the first things I did was catch up on your blog. I did send you a belated email with the answers to your questions.
I appreciate everything you do and I am committed to learning more and becoming a better trader. I am happy to have found you early in my trading career as I have learned so much from you already.
Thank you
Paula
There are no words to describe how much I appreciate your endless supply of generosity, brilliance and kindness. With your continued guidance, leadership and knowledge, I truly believe I will achieve my goals in 2011. Eternally grateful, diane
Dave,
I responded to Chartsignals on Jan 3 and again tonight. I am in full agreement with Scott L. whose post is below mine. I feel you need to focus on the people who are committed to the process and have stated that commitment by responding. I thought the "silent majority" went out with Nixon ??
Hi Dave:
Thank you for all your insights.
I read your blog every day.
I would like to know your thoughts on trailing stops to protect profits in trades.
Thanks so much.
Gail in Chicago
Upon graduating from dental school we were told that we were "safe beginners, safe to be turned loose on the public." After the 4 day live I felt like a was a "safe beginner" except that I found a "gem" in Chart Signals, an inside track, access to an experts knowledge. This is extremely rare; an expert willing to help others around who were willing to put forth the effort to learn. Chart Signals is my home page, read it every day and glean gems daily. Thanks for all of your help as I realize that you don't "have to" do this.
Dave,
I am certainly and alway looking to improve my trading skills. I have been listening to you since the summer of 2006, been to two of your AT workshops and one AO workshops. I have learned so much from you and hope to learn much more. You seem to sincerely care about those listening to you and what you are conveying to us. Please don't give up on us.
Thankyou again.
Kim K in Oklahoma
so unorganized, yet so in need of educated guidance, and it doesn't get any better than this. I didn't really think you were talking to me with you invitation, but will try to feel more a part of the team in 2011. Thanks for the inspiration and help!
Dave,
I'm in. Knowledge is the key to success.
Bill
Dave,
I'm in.
Bill
Thank you so much for your blog. I read it everyday. I have a small acct. and am much older, and in dire need of your guidance - I will make this work and thank you for helping me! I hope you have a great New Year!
Sincerely Susan Milner
Dear Dave,
I took a big step this morning to set goals for 2011 and letting the amazing director of " Chart Signals" know that I want to change in 2011 . I'm a little late but ....no more excuses for me.
There are no words out there that I can find to thank you enough for being a sincere "coach". I'm so lucky to have you as a mentor but I need to apply all the skills to become a great trader and hopefully to reach my goal for 2011and on.......
Many many thanks for all you do.
Your grateful student ,
Nicole
Nicole
Dave:
Thanks much for all;
Please count me in. I responded on 2Jan11 at 1123hrs.
I hope others will realize what a treasure and mentor your are. I admit, I was a little slow to realize it, myself.
Failure is not an option for 2011!!!
Thanks
Robert
CANI_212
I'm ready for 2011
Thanks Dave for handling it this way. It truly makes me chuckle and is a very revealing life lesson. That so many of us don't really do what we "should do" even though it's not so difficult. In fact, I once heard a great Jedi trading master say something like: "Those things that are easy to do are also easy NOT to do". I see no reason why we all can't be more responsive in the comments section as we read and receive such gems from your blog this year!!
Dave,
So many have expressed my thoughts already. Your experience, commitment, clarity, & insights inspire us on a daily basis. Numerous people refer to your teachings again & again....you do make a difference!
I know I need to refine my actions so 2011 can be a better year....count me in!
Gratefully,
Lois
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