Monday, January 31, 2011

SPX Bullish Harami as Stocks Bounce...

The SPX formed a bullish harami that closed two points under Friday’s R1, +9.78 at 1,286.12 on Monday.

SPX bullish harami
INDU bullish harami
COMPQ hammer, bullish harami
RUT bullish harami

Breadth strengthened on Monday as advancers led decliners 2.23 to 1 on the NYSE and 1.41 to 1 on the NASDAQ …

Exchange     NYSE     NASDAQ
Advancers    2,066       1,550
Decliners          925       1,096

Index   Chg.   Close   Direction   Confirmation
VIX      -0.51     19.53      Down        Yes – SPX
SOX   +1.90   440.51      Up             Yes – COMPQ

Leading stocks > +1% on Monday included SINA, UCO, SOHU, AMD, X, ICE, ATW, STI, CLF, JEC, PCX, HANS, SLB, URE, AIV, WLT, FAS, FCX, ATI, JNPR, DE, FWLT, POT, A, AKS, MCP, NETL, LVS, GLW, LDK, UNG, SWN, TIE, GES, MOS, CAM, CRUS, SPG, PCP, SWKS, CAT, TBT, TSL, DOW, DLR, UNP, GS, ARUN

Losing stocks < -1.0% included WHR, SNDK, FAZ, LCC, SLW, SKX, F, CRM UAL, DECK, LXK

Positives – SPX, VIX, NDX, SOX, TNX, AAPL, BIDU, breadth strengthened, broad sector strength, Euro, TLT weakness

Negatives –  SPX below R1, AMZN

Interest rates rose on Monday and bond ETF TLT closed down 70 cents. The Euro moved up 84 pips to 1.3692 at 5 pm ET.

Eight of nine sectors rose on Monday with Energy XLE +2.87% and Materials XLB +1.67% leading all sectors.

Earnings – continue to watch earnings releases this next week

Setup Charts to Watch on Tuesday

Bull Flag Setups – HPQ, MS, X, JECK JNPR, FWLT, AKS, MCP, LDK, TIE, SWKS, TSL, SMH


SPX
Resistance: 1,300
Support: 1,281 1,271, 1,256


The short term 3 day trend is down.
The six-month trend is up.
The twelve-month trend is up.


Trade with the trend of the chart you are trading.


Bullish entry signal is a bounce off support and a break above the high of the low day or a break out of horizontal resistance.


Bearish entry signal is a break of short term support or a bounce down from the 30 DMA or other resistance.


AAPL +3.22 – piercing line
AMZN -1.50 – inside day spinning top
NFLX -3.90 – potential bearish harami following earnings gap up
QCOM +0.39 – hammer in bull flag
GOOG -0.63 – hammer
BIDU +2.09 – potential bearish harami, inside day


NDX 100 stocks stronger than the NDX include FSLR, ERTS, GENZ, PCAR, WFMI, CERN, WCRX, JOYG, SIAL, BIDU, CTSH, YHOO, CA, ADSK and QGEN.


Stocks weaker than the NDX: CHKP, SNDK, NFLX, RIMM, ISRG, BBBY, MCHP, FFIV, NIHD, MICC, SHLD, CTXS, AMZN, FLEX and DLTR.


Stocks to Watch on Tuesday
Holding Above 30 DMA
SINA, NDAQ, SMH, FWLT, PCX, CLF, CRUS, HOLX, DE, FAS, GLW, JEC, ACN, NYX, ATI, URE, DISH, POT, BA, SWN, TSL, DLR, HANS, HUM, LDK, NTES, CAM, SLB, TIE, MA, SPG, ESI, STI, CAT, DOW, MOS, NETL, SOHU, SWKS, ATW, SWK, TBT, UAL
Moving Above 30 DMA = 10
AIV, AKS, ICE, JNPR, PCP, UCO, UNG, UNP, WLT, X
Moving Below 30 DMA = 2
SKX, WHR
Staying Below 30 DMA
A, AGU, CMG, F, FDX, GMCR, IPI, LVS, LXK, MHS, PNC, SNDK, VECO, CF, DHR, HSY, TLT, V, BAC, CHL, MCP, ZION, ARUN, CRM, RVBD, VMW, FCX, GS, DECK, AMD, HLF, CREE, GME, SLW, GES, HAS, CSTR, MCD, FAZ


Intermediate Term Market Trend: Up
Short Term Market Trend: Down

Dave's Insight:  Time to rate your performance for January.  How did your portfolio do in January compared with the following indexes? If you outperformed the SOX give yourself an A+, the INDU, NDX or SPX give yourself an A.

January
SPX 2.26%
NDX 2.89%
INDU 2.73%
SOX 6.97%

1 comment:

Brian McAllister said...

Dave,

A+, with a 20.6% gain! Thanks Dave for your patient and consistent advice. It has helped me develop my own rules not just for riding the crest, but managing the pullbacks (which has been my biggest struggle). And thanks for keeping the posts going while you're on the road teaching.

Best,

Brian