Tuesday, August 10, 2010

SPX Closes Lower but Rallies From Early Lows...

DJIA              10,644.25   -54.50   -0.51%
SP500             1,121.06     -6.73   -0.60%
COMPQ          2,277.17    -28.52   -1.24%
Russell 2000      646.36    -13.16   -2.00%

Exchange     NYSE     NASD
Advancing       826         575
Declining      2,224      2,099

SOX     344.74   -9.31
VIX        22.37  +0.23

Index     Direction    Confirmation
VIX         Up              Yes – SPX
SOX        Down         Yes – COMPQ

Leading stocks on Tuesday included NFLX, FAZ, PNC, FFIV, V, MA, PCLN, STI, WMT, HSY, HAS, DOW, MCD

After a weaker than expected productivity report, short term sellers were in control for the first 30 minutes of trading on Tuesday. The market then traded in a basing pattern until the Fed announcement just after 2 pm ET and then buyers stepped back in and took control. Tuesday’s low was higher than Friday’s low following a weaker than expected jobs report.

NFLX rose +6.94% after announcing a deal that makes NFLX the exclusive internet only distributer of films from the owners of TV pay channel Epix including Paramount Pictures, MGM and Lions Gate. AKAM rose +4.86% after an analyst upgrade from GS.

With the SPX at a zone of resistance it is time protect up trending profits. While the resilience of the SPX still suggests a better probability of the SPX continuing its recent up trend, traders should be prepared to exit trades that roll over and break the low of the high day if the SPX fails to break through resistance.

Please protect your profits according to your rules.

The VIX did confirm Tuesday’s lower close. Breadth was weaker as Decliners led Advancers 2.6 to 1 on the NYSE.
Stay focused on and trade according to the chart.

Setups on NYX and CTSH provided entry opportunities on Tuesday depending on a trader’s entry rules. Setups on CSTR, CAM, CLF, DHR and DECK did not give entry signals and moved lower with the broader market.

Guidance:
SPX
Resistance: 1,130, 1,141
Support: 1,115, 1,100, 1,086

Enter strong stocks up with a bounce off support (old resistance). Stay with stocks in a bounce continuation. Look for breakout opportunities in the SPX and many individual stocks.

Watch for a break of the low of the high day for bearish entries.

The VIX rose +0.23 and closed at 22.37 and is still the 25 level confirming the current up trend since July 7.

The short term 3 day trend is neutral.
The two-month trend is neutral.
The twelve-month trend is up.

Continue to focus on and trade setups on the charts of the stocks you watch, trade with the trend of the chart and follow your rules.

AAPL -2.34 – spinning top
QCOM +0.03 – white spinning top at resistance
GOOG -1.64 – white spinning top in pennant
BIDU +0.31 – spinning top
NDX 100 stocks stronger than the NDX include: AKAM, IACI, TEVA, HSIC, CELG, DTV, RIMM, AMZN, ATVI, ESRX, EXPE, GENZ, VRSN, BIIB and LOGI.

Stocks weaker than the NDX: STX, LRCX, FLEX, NVDA, DELL, INTC, GRMN, MRVL, KLAC, LINTA, EXPD, AMAT, NTAP, CA and FLIR.

Stocks to Watch on Wednesday
Holding Above 30 DMA
TLT, CRUS, GMCR, HANS, TSL, BUCY, CAT, CREE, CRM, HLF, PCLN, TIE, VMW, AGU, MCD, DE, GS, IPI, AKS, MOS, POT, CAM, ATW, FCX, FLS, GES, GME, PCP, UAUA, WLT, WMT, X, SWK, ACN, AIV, AMX, BA, CHL, CLF, FFIV, GR, LVS, SPG, UNP, URE, CMG, FAS, STI, DECK, HAS, NYX, LXK, DHR, SKX, UCO, USO, CSTR, SNDK, A, ATI, MA, NFLX, DOW, V
Moving Above 30 DMA = 0


Moving Below 30 DMA = 3
DLR, ICE, USD
Staying Below 30 DMA
PNC, SWN, ZION, UNG, VECO, WFMI, NETL, SKX, AMD, BYI, JEC, NTRI, FAZ, ESI, HSY, BAC, MHS, WHR

Intermediate Term Market Trend: Neutral
Short Term Market Trend: Neutral

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Today you wrote DECK did not give a signal, but the previous day DECK looked like a very clear bull flag confirmation and is holding the low of the low day.