Monday, August 2, 2010

SPX Bull Flag Bounce...Entry Signals Galore...

DJIA                10,674.44  +208.44 +1.99%
SP500               1,125.86    +24.26 +2.20%
COMPQ             2,295.36   +40.66 +1.80%
Russell 2000         661.86   +10.97 +1.69%

Exchange      NYSE   NASD
Advancing      2,626    1,918
Declining          463       774

Oil          $81.34   +2.39
Gold   $1,183.40 +12.00
SOX        354.94   +6.13
VIX           22.01    -1.49

Index      Direction Confirmation
VIX          Down       Yes – SPX lowest close since May 3
SOX         Up           Yes – COMPQ

Leading stocks on Monday included WLT, CLF, FAS, UCO, URE, X, GME, SPG, FCX, AIV, VECO, WHR, LVS, USD, LXK, CREE, ATW, ATI, SNDK, DOW, MOS, NYX, BYI, USO, AKS, A, ZION, CSTR, JEC, CRM, FLS, TIE, ICE, BAC, AMX, GES, POT, PNC, CAM, STI, WFMI

On Monday the SPX bounced in its bull flag pattern, confirmed Friday’s hammer and broke out of short term resistance. The INDU did the same confirming Friday’s doji. The COMPQ and RUT bounced and confirmed Friday’s piercing line like patterns, but did NOT break out of short term resistance. The SPX led and the RUT lagged.

The market move was led by a rising Euro 1.3174, +129 pips and Energy XLE +3.49%, Materials XLB +2.69% and Financials XLF +2.52%.

HLF is up +10% in after hours trading after reporting earnings of $1.32 vs 93 cents estimates.
Trends continued in POT, MOS, AGU, LVS, DECK, CLF, FFIV

Resistance breakout on Monday: LVS, DECK, CLF, MOS

Entry signals on Monday: CRUS, CREE, VECO, CRM, LXK, GES, PCLN, PCP, CAT, VMW, AKS, X, FAS, STI, GME, CAM, FCX, WLT, UCO, URE, SPG, AIV, WHR, USD, ATW, ATI, SNDK, DOW, NYX, USO, BYI, A, ZION, CSTR, JEC, FLS, TIE, ICE, BAC, AMX, PNC, WFMI

Earnings Coming: PCLN, TIE, NYX, WFMI, DOW, CAM, AGU, ATW, ICE, CREE

Setups to watch on Tuesday: GS, UAUA, CAL

Guidance:
SPX bounces, breaks out and closes above its 1,115 resistance level...
Bull flag breakout pattern entry
The SPX makes highest close since May 17
The VIX did confirm the higher close in the SPX, and stayed below 25.
Breadth was stronger as advancers led decliners 5 to 1 on the NYSE.
SPX price target is still 1,141…

Price did bounce above Friday’s high. Did you follow your rules for entry?

SPX
Resistance: 1,130, 1,141
Support: 1,115, 1,100, 1,086

Enter strong stocks up with a break above the high of the low day. Stay with stocks in a bounce continuation.

Most stops on bearish trades should have closed according to your rules. Wait for a break of the low of the high day for bearish entries.

The VIX fell -1.49 and closed at 22.01, the lowest close since May 3. Volatility closed well below the important 25 level confirming the current up trend since July 7.

The short term 3 day trend is up.
The two-month trend is neutral.
The twelve-month trend is up.

Continue to focus on and trade setups on the charts of the stocks you watch, trade with the trend of the chart and follow your rules.

AAPL +4.60 – confirm inverted hammer
QCOM +0.68 – confirm hammer in bull flag
GOOG +5.56 – confirm bullish harami in bull flag
BIDU +3.19 – trend continuation
NDX 100 stocks stronger than the NDX include: NIHD, FWLT, NWSA, LIFE, ADSK, SHLD, NTAP, BIDU, ERTS, GILD, BBBY, TEVA, CSCO, DISH and LOGI.

Stocks weaker than the NDX: AKAM, RIMM, VRSN, ORLY, SBUX, LLTC, NVDA, ROST, HANS, CMCSA and IACI.

Stocks to Watch on Tuesday
Holding Above 30 DMA
TLT, CRUS, GMCR, HANS, TSL, BUCY, CAT, CREE, CRM, HLF, PCLN, TIE, VMW, AGU, MCD, DE, GS, IPI, AKS, MOS, POT, CAM, VECO, ATW, DOW, FCX, FLS, GES, GME, PCP, UAUA, WLT, WMT, X, SWK, ACN, AIV, AMX, BA, CHL, CLF, DLR, FFIV, GR, LVS, SPG, UNP, URE, CMG, FAS, STI, WFMI, DECK, HAS, NYX, LXK, UNG, DHR, SKX, UCO, USO, ZION
Moving Above 30 DMA = 6
ATI, CSTR, NETL, PNC, SNDK, USD
Moving Below 30 DMA = 2
MA, SKX
Staying Below 30 DMA
AMD, BYI, V, A, JEC, NTRI, FAZ, NFLX, ESI, HSY, BAC, MHS, WHR, SWN, ICE

Intermediate Term Market Trend: Neutral
Short Term Market Trend: Up

5 comments:

Anonymous said...

Dave,

Question for you. Take HOG or HP, had the close above the high of the low day today. Already getting close to the previous high. Is it too late for these trades as A pattern entries? Now wait for the B entry on the break out? When is it chasing versus still a good entry?

Thanks for putting out so much detailed analysis while on vacation. You are helping many people.

Thanks
Don

Prasanna said...

Dear Dave:

You will be proud to know that we took the flag bounce and the breakout entries following our rules!

Thankyou for your continued guidance from the future!

Best Regards,

Dave Johnson said...

Don,

An end of day trader likely would have taken both HOG and HP at Monday's closing price since Monday was the first day of the bounce. If a trader did not forecast a move to a higher high (the more probable outcome in an up trend) they likely would skip the HP trade since it moved to the prior high in one day.

Obviously these are general guidelines. Every trader would make a final determination based on their own trading preferences.

Cheers,

Dave

Dave Johnson said...

Prasanna,

Congratulations, doing so can lead to great results over a series of trades. Keep up the great work.

Cheers,

Dave
from the future...I'm in Tuesday night already and Tuesday trading hasn't even started yet... :)

Unknown said...

Hi Dave-
Dave:

Thanks again for all you do-even from the future---there must be a trading metaphor there somewhere...

Can't wait to attend the live training next month with you and Scott. Quick question-how did you come up with the SPX support of 1086-is it a general area of support or is it from a fib level drawn (if so, from where). Thanks.

Jamie