Tuesday, August 10, 2010

Futures Down after Lower than Forecasted Productivity Report...

Non-farm buisness productivity fell at a 0.9% rate in the second quarter vs. estimates f a 0.4% decline.  This is a catalyst for a light volume pre-market selloff.  ES -10.75 and NQ -16.00 with 45 minutes before the opening bell.  Bonds, TLT +0.36 adn the dollar are higher with the Euro down 100 pips.

Follow your rules if your charts give you exit signals or bearish entry signals.  Even though I pointed out the positive technicals and said last night suggests

Also be mindful of the short term potential impact of the news if big money doesn't join the selling this morning as we saw on Friday with the jobs report.  Also follow your re-entry rules if you exit and a support bounce occurs afterwards. 

The key operative is to trade the charts according to your rules and do NOT make your decisions based on what you think will happen.  As I said last night the positive technicals suggest a higher probability of a breakout than break down.  Infered in that comment is the fact that the lower probability of a break down can still occur.  That is why I said it is not a breakout until it does in fact, breakout and if the market breaks down you have to trade it that way according to your rules

Remember Dave's Insight:  Trade the market, not your thoughts.

On Monday night's virtual trade examples which included NYX, I will hold on any that open lower and look for potential support bounce at a more favorable price.  NYX, CLF and CTSH are lower on very light volume.  CAM, CSTR, DECK and DHR have no pre-market trading at this time.

Follow your rules...

4 comments:

Tom Cunningham said...

Dave, I love it. Thanks for last night and your STRONG commitment to help.

Dave Johnson said...

Tom,

You're welcome, thanks for being here.

Cheers,

Dave

Joe said...

Where do I find Monday morning comments?

Joe

Dave Johnson said...

Joe,

Under Stocks Open Higher, two posting down from this one.

Cheers,

Dave