Thursday, September 17, 2009

SPX Reaches 1,074.77...Chart Target From May...

DJIA -7.79 -0.08% SPX -3.27 -0.31% Nasdaq -6.40 -0.30% RUT -1.91 -0.31% Exchange NYSE NASD Advancing 1,344 1,355 Declining 1,705 1,372 Oil 72.47 -0.04 Gold 1,012.60 -6.60 SOX 321.33 -5.51 VIX 23.65 -0.04 The VIX moved down and did NOT confirm the move down in the SPX on Thursday. The SOX moved down and confirmed the move down in the Nasdaq. Strongest Sectors: XLI +0.18%...XLV -0.07%...XLY -0.11% Weakest Sectors: XLU -0.67%...XLE -0.48%...XLB -0.46% Eight of nine sectors moved moderately lower on Thursday. Industrials, Healthcare, Consumer Discretionary were stronger than the SPX -0.31%. Financial stocks stronger than XLF -0.33%: C, MS, BAC, ALL, ICE, GS, JPM, CME, TROW and BK. Tech stocks stronger than XLK -0.38%: YHOO, AMT, AAPL, GOOG, EBAY, MSFT, MA, HPQ, CSCO, SYMC, IBM, ADP, EMC and DELL. Sector Watch Up Trending: XLK, XLB, XLY, XLV Horizontal Breakout: XLF Sideways: XLE, XLP, XLI, XLU Key Resistance Levels: 1,075 = 875 Breakout Chart Target 1,100 = September 2008 Old Support Key Support Levels 1,044 = October Horizontal Old Resistance 1,025 = 950 Breakout Chart Target 1,017 = August 27 Support Low The SPX reached 1,074.77 intra-day on Thursday, which has been the May breakout chart target of 1,075. The chart suggested on May 4 a time target of mid August or about 3 ½ months, it took 4 ½ months. Dave alerted you in early August that the time target likely would not be achieved and look more to mid to late September. Mid September and the target is reached. Ask yourself a very important question; who do you know of, that on May 4 thought the SPX would reach 1,075? The Chart is who you know. True, it was Chart Signals that brought the chart target to your attention and it was Chart Signals that did not waver and it was Chart Signals that helped you stay focused on the chart. Other than the Chart and Chart Signals I suspect you didn't name any one else. So what is your BGO? The talking heads are guessing, they did not know and they did not say at the beginning of May that the SPX would reach 1,075 in the next few months . The Chart and Chart Signals did. Now in all fairness the Chart shows probabilities, not certainties. But when you trust the probabilities the Chart shows, those probabilities can guide you with a much higher degree of reliability, especially as compared with the talking heads. In all fairness we probably should call them the guessing heads. Start trusting the Chart all the time. Why? Because it is more reliable than the emotional guesses of the talking heads. Guidance: Stay with the trend you are trading. The SPX, Nasdaq, RUT and DJIA paused on Thursday and formed a bearish harami. Wait for confirmation. Thursday is both the high day and a pause and slight pull back day. Short term traders continue to be on Yellow Alert. Many individual stocks closed at new highs while many others paused or pulled back. Remember that stocks at resistance or that broke out of horizontal resistance will likely pull back if the SPX pulls back. Potential Breakout Setups: DE, STT, JCG, JCI Breakout: APOL, FSLR, JEC, MA, CAT, JOYG, BUCY, FWLT, AGU, DOW, HOLX, WLT, FAST, AXP, DD, X, WHR, SPG, BDK, FLS, MRVL, BIDU, NWSA, V, FLIR, AKAM, BUCY, AMZN Pulling Back: TXN, WYNN, ADBE, XLNX, AMAT, ZION Potential C Patterns: C Pattern Breakout: ADSK Flag Setups and Bounces in Progress: BAC, INTC, HANS, AGCO Potential Down Trend Setups: AAPL +2.69 QCOM -0.69 GOOG +3.43 BIDU -3.72 NDX 100 stocks stronger than the NDX included ILMN, HANS, GENZ, YHOO, FSLR, APOL, JOYG, ATVI, VRTX, PPDI, FWLT, ESRX, AAPL, AMGN, HOLX, INFY, CTXS, CA and BBBY. Stocks to Watch on Friday Leading Stocks Holding Above 30 DMA PSYS, CTSH, AAPL, PETS, USD, JOSB, CAM, EBAY, PCLN, SNHY, TDG, CBST, WAB, CLB, PCP, RBN, VAR, GR, CLB, BIIB, GES, HDB, ESRX, BDX, DLTR, NTLS, MYGN, ICE, NIHD, K, FLS, GXDX, WCG, BAP, FAS, FUQI, GME, JEC, PWR, PWRD, RCI, RIMM, WRC, UYG, BIDU, HDB, JW.A, AMX, ATW, EZPW, GILD, MUR, JOYG, X, URE, TRLG, EBAY, GPRO, HLF, MHS, PPD, PSYS, SWN, SYNA, ALGT, DECK, VPRT, AMZN, GMCR, ACN, SPWRA, SLGN, AFAM, FSLR, JCOM, MOS, NFLX, HANS, ICE, MCD Moving Above 30 DMA = 3 APEI, DLB, DV Moving Below 30 DMA = 5 AMED, BKC, BLUD, BYI, ORCL Staying Below 30 DMA WMT, CPLA, MON, SNA, ESI, STRA, CHL, FAZ Intermediate Term Market Trend: DJIA = Neutral, Nasdaq, RUT, SPX = Up Short Term Market Trend: Up

1 comment:

Peggy said...

Dave,
Thank you for your post. You are so right that you were THE only trader, professional I know that stood by your conviction of 1075 without wavering. Speaks volumes about you. I know of traders, even professional ones you have gotten slapped so hard by trying to "call a top" on this "over bought" market. Even the famous Art Cashin didn't believe it, but you did! Thank you for sharing your expertise and time into making this blog the best one I know.
Have a great weekend!
I'll hear you on the wrap!
Peggy