Thursday, September 10, 2009

SPX Closes at 1,044...How Many Times Have You Seen That Number in Chart Signals Posts?

Good Morning everyone...it is 1:40 am MT and I just arrived from the airport after teaching a two day Advanced Technicals Workshop in Philadelphia to 300 traders. Safe trip and I'm ready for a new trading day on Friday. Just a few brief comments for Thursday. DJIA + 80.26, +0.84% SP500 + 10.77, +1.04% NASDAQ Comp. + 23.63, +1.15% Russell 2000 + 8.50, +1.45% Exchange NYSE NASD Advancing 2,312 1,808 Declining 726 875 Oil $71.94 +0.63 Gold $995.40 +$0.10 SOX 325.82 +5.69 VIX 23.55 -0.77 The VIX moved down and did confirm the move up in the SPX on Thursday. The SOX confirmed the move up in the Nasdaq. Strongest Sectors: XLE +1.73%...XLK +1.37%...XLY +1.34% Weakest Sectors: XLU +0.00%...XLB +0.56%...XLP +0.72% Eight of nine sectors moved higher on Thursday. Energy, Technology and Consumer Discretionary were stronger than the SPX +1.04%. Financial stocks that were down but stronger than XLF +0.83%: GS, PRU, SPG, C, ALL, MET, STT, MMC, BAC, AFL AXP and ETFs UYG and FAS. Tech stocks stronger than XLK +1.37%: YHOO, DELL, ADBE, EBAY, CSCO, T, EMC, GLW, AMT, GOOG and VZ. Sector Watch Up Trending: XLK, XLB, XLY, XLV Horizontal Breakout: XLF Sideways: XLE, XLF, XLP, XLI, XLU Down Trending: SPX Key resistance levels: 1,044 = October horizontal 1,075 = 875 Breakout Chart target Key support levels: 1,025 = 950 Breakout Chart target 1,017 = August 21 S1 level & August 27 support low 1,007 = Nov horizontal resistance 992 - 996 = Early August Support Low 980 = July 23 Resistance - August 17 Support 962 = July 23 S1, 30 DMA, 38.2% Fib extension 944 – 956 = old January/June/July resistance The SPX closed at 1,044 the October horizontal resistance area. This is the first time the SPX is at this level in 11 months so it certainly would be reasonable to see a pause at this level on Friday. We’ll watch on Friday to see if the SPX pulls back at resistance or still has more buying to push through and begin moving towards the 1,075 price target we posted on originally on May 4. Short term traders be mindful that Thursday is the new high day. Last week there were numerous individuals that chatted in during my webcasts identifying a potential head and shoulders pattern on the SPX. I cautioned against this low probability point of view in an up trend, because it distracts from your ability to see and trade the trend. Thursday’s new high close should put that view to rest…at least until the next pull back off a higher high. Stocks to Watch on Friday Leading Stocks Holding Above 30 DMA PSYS, BYI, CTSH, AAPL, PETS, USD, JOSB, CAM, EBAY, PCLN, SNHY, TDG, CBST, WAB, BLUD, CLB, PCP, WMT, RBN, VAR, GR, CLB, BIIB, GES, HDB, ESRX, BDX, DLTR, NTLS, MYGN, ICE, NIHD, K, FLS, GXDX, WCG, APEI, BAP, FAS, FUQI, GME, JEC, PWR, PWRD, RCI, RIMM, WRC, UYG, BIDU, HDB, JW.A, ORCL, AMX, ATW, EZPW, GILD, HANS, MUR, JOYG, X, URE, TRLG, EBAY, GPRO, HLF, MHS, PPD, PSYS, SLGN, SWN, SYNA Moving Above 30 DMA = 5 ALGT, DECK, FSLR, VPRT, AMZN Moving Below 30 DMA = 5 BKC, CPLA, DV, MON, SNA Staying Below 30 DMA MCD, MOS ESI, AMED, ICE, STRA, AFAM, NFLX, ACN, CHL, DLB, JCOM, SPWRA, GMCR, FAZ Intermediate Term Market Trend: SPX, DJIA, RUT = Neutral, Nasdaq = Up Short Term Market Trend: Up BMO – ES +0.25 and NQ +2.25 futures are flat to slightly higher in pre-market trading pointing to slightly higher open. GOOG, AAPL and BIDU are near Tuesday’s close in early pre-market trading. Overnight in Asia and Europe futures traded as high as 1,038 nearing the 1,044 October resistance. The SPX hit an intra-day on1,039.47 on August 28. Will the 1,025 resistance become the new support at this time? We’ll watch for the answer today. Day one of our AT Workshop with 300 traders went extremely well. We start day two this morning. Continue to trade with the trend of the stocks you are trading. Look at these Charts… AXP…FLS...MRVL…SPG…URE…PCLN At the Open on Thursday SPY – QQQQ – WLT – JOYG – AMX - DOW – AGU – X – DE – FLS – FWLT – WHR – AXP – PCLN – BDK – BAC – FAS – ZION – AAPL – PCP – FUQI – PWRD – FCX – CAM – MHS – TGT – ARO – ANF – GES –

10 comments:

Anonymous said...

Thank you for your commentary and 'live workshop' update, Dave..

I do not feel so bad about not being able to be there with your updates.

Have a wonderful 'day 2' today and will look here later for more of your commentary on the market!

Laney

Leslie Millsaps said...

Hi Dave - (Hi Laney)
Looks like the trend is continuing to behave as expected. As I write this $SPX is very close to 1044 (about 1042 at 2:25pm)and its lowest point today has actually been slightly higher than (new support?) 1025. Your technical training has helped me to ignore the pullback and reap rewards by continuing to follow the trend. Thanks for help us be GREAT TRADERS!
Leslie Millsaps

Brian McAllister said...

We closed at 1044 on the SPX. Gee, what a coincidence. Not! Thanks Dave for helping me better spot these levels of S&R. Save travels home.

John Kevan said...

Aloha Dave
OK, time to stop rounding to whole numbers (ie. 1044.00) Time to be more detailed and round to 10 cent increments (ie. 1044.10 or 1044.20 would have been better).

;-)

john

Anonymous said...

Hi Dave,
(Hello Leslie-Way to go, girl!)

I too have found the discipline to remain in trades and follow the trend. It has been a process, not an event.

But thanks to you, Dave, I am learning well-

Laney

Peggy said...

Congrats to the Master Technician!
Who told us along time ago to watch for 1044 on the SPX!! He held his ground while his comrades disagreed. I heard this! You are the bomb! And I mean this in the best way! I told everyone in a private chat with many other full time traders that you called it, and we all applauded you!
Thanks for all you do for so many.
A long time student and all time fan,
Peggy

Dave Johnson said...

Leslie, Brian, John, Laney and Peggy,

It is after 1:30 am MT...I just walked in from the airport returning from my AT Workshop in Philadelphia. 1,044 pretty amazing number and amazing how good technical analysis works over and over again.

Thanks for your comments.

Dave

Gary said...

Dave,

Holding Sept calls I'll be looking to close out some today into any strength. What is the significance
of the new high for short term traders? Is it a good strategy to close out some before the weekend? Thanks for taking the time to do this blog and help us traders become successful.

Gary

Barbara Rubin said...

Dave,
Fantastic workshop. 2 thumbs up (3 if I had them). Outstanding 2 days. Thank you. Repetition is key, and my son sang "If I had a hammer..." all the way home It just wouldn't get out of his subconscious or conscious mind. Must have really made an impression, although I can mostly remember the original words, and not your version. Any hope that you can print them out...
And like magic, you ended the workshop on that famous 1,044 number that you have talked about so much, I would say "countless" times. Again thanks for a great 2 days. Trading with the trend and defining short term and intermediate term targets and stops has made a tremendous difference in my trading.

John Kevan said...

Gary
A close below the low of the new high day would be your short term trader exit (depending on your rules of course).
john