Friday, December 2, 2016

SPY, IWM, XLY in Bull Flag Price Pattern...XLB, XLE, XLF in Day One Pullback...Steel Stocks on the Rise...


Flag Setups for Next Week:
                   (click image to enlarge)


Sector Trend Strength:
Up Trend: XLF, XLI, XLB, XLY, XLE
Sideways: XLK, XLV
Down Trend: XLP, XLU, XLRE

For the week ended December 2, four of ten sectors moved higher.
XLE +2.90%, XLF +1.07%, XLB +0.85%, XLI +0.16%, XLU -0.76%, XLRE -0.77%,
SPY -0.83%,
Lagging sectors XLP -0.32%, XLV -0.32%, XLY -0.32%, XLK -0.32%,

YTD 233
Leading Sectors: XLE +24.06%, XLI +18.49%, XLF +17.05%, XLB +15.11%, XLK +9.01%, XLU +8.13%,
SPY +7.75%,
Lagging Sectors: XLY +4.20%, XLP +0.16%, XLV -5.03%, XLRE -5.12%

Breadth strengthened as advancers led 1,649 to 1,345 on the NYSE and led 1,413 to 1,343 on the NASDAQ.

Friday – strengthened, advancers led, +7
Thursday – weakened slightly, decliners led, +5
Wednesday – weakened, decliners led, +4
Tuesday – strengthened, decliners led, +9
Monday – weakened, decliners led, +4


Oil futures were up .77 to close at 51.68, eclipsing its Oct 19 high by one cent.

SPY up .43 at 219.68 on 74.8 million shares, 19% below average volume
VIX up .05 at 14.12
TLT up .87 at 119.60…on 12.4 million shares, 17% above average volume

Technical Commentary:
QQQ +0.20%, SPY +0.05%, IWM -0.05%, DIA -0.08%,


IWM, DIA and SPY continue to remain above their horizontal resistance breakout level

SPY, IWM and XLY are bull flag price patterns.  XLB, XLE and XLF are in a day one pullback flag pattern.

Steel stocks AKS, X, CLF, VALE, MT, SCH, STLD and NUE resumed their uptrend today after a four-day pause.


SPX up .87 point at 2,191.95

SPX Leaders: AMAT, NEM, EBAY, IRM, TSO, HES, NFLX, WD, WMB, LLY, QCOM, EXC, WHR, FCX, FTI, GPN, CHK, GGP, ALK, O, CBG, EW, EFX, HCN, SWKS, CA, H, HPE, BHI, STX

QQQ is in sideways trend and formed a spinning top near its intermediate-term support today.   

NDX point gainers: QCOM, AAPL, INTC, AMAT, NFLX, AMGN, EBAY, GOOG and WBA


Follow your rules and look for potential re-entry if you were stopped out of any profitable trades.

Continue to move up stops on short term bullish trades that could pull back.  All according to your profit protection rules.  If you moved stops you may have been stopped out today.


Remember breakouts typically test about 70% of the time.

Technical analysis based trades should be closed before earnings.

Trade what you see, not…

Stocks below support should generally be traded bearishly until a reversal pattern forms.


2016 Q3 EPS
EPS Positive Reactions
FIVE, BIG, THO, CTRP, DE, VEEV, GME, BURL, SINA, DLTR, WB, ADI, CPB, HRL, JEC, SIG, MRVL, ROST, INTU, BBY, NTAP, TGT, AAP, JD, NVDA, KSS, M, JWN, RL, DDS, QVCA, JCI,
EPS Negative Reactions

WDAY, AMBA, SWHC, ULTA, ADSK, URBN, PDCO, MDT, TSN, GPS, CSCO, LOW, HD, TJX, 


______________________

Strong Stocks: Setups and Moves You Can Use
Bull Flag Setups include: FCX, BBY, NTAP, DLTR, ADP, TGT, TCK, MU, CCL, MCD, BURL, FISV, PAYX, DAL, AAP, UAL, SKYW, MUR, APA, LNG, C, BAC, PWR, SBUX, RCL, JWN, NCLH, FOSL, TXN, KLAC, WB, LRCX,

Bull Flag Bounces include: MGM, NUE, SCHN, LUV, X, SQ,


Horizontal Breakout Setups include: NUE, X, LUV, CE, FTI,


Horizontal Breakouts include: STLD, AKS, CHK, SQ,

New Highs include: BHI, HAL, HES, SQ, ALK, CE, CC, SAVE, TRV, CMA, WDC, FDX, AAL, ALK, UPS, BA, HBAN, ZION, GS, CFG, MS, ETFC, USB, RF, SCHW, CSX, UNH, MAR, CMCSA,

______________________

Short-term Movers for the week:
SPX gainers:  RIG, HP, MRO, NFX, HES, CHK, HAL, XEC, DVN, EOG, NBL, APC, URI, MUR, CXO, GS, LUK, NOV, FLS, CFG, NEM, COP, UNH, CMA, MOS, CVS, FTI, GWW, HST, SLB, TIF, +10, 4,  +4, 32

SPX losers:  HRB, FOSL, COTY, AA, QRVO, MAS, CRM, TSS, DG, ADS, STZ, MNK, HBI, FBHS, MCHP, GCI, BAX, RL, NWL, PVH, HRL, FTR, TDG, DLPH, URBN, NAVI, DHI, KORS, COH, V, GPN, MHK, VLO, AJG, LEN, COO, EFX, PHM, TXN, GPS, FE, AFL, FIS, WU, MDT, HAS, ALLE, GT, AMT, ORCL, MA, KIM, RCL, TAP, CCL, K, -4, 85

NDX gainers:  CSX, ALXN, FAST, +4, 0

NDX losers:  VRTX, TRIP, LBTYA, QVCA, TSLA,BMRN, MAT, AVGO, ADSK, MU, SIRI, LRCX, REGN, XRAY, LVNTA, NVDA, MXIM, SRCL, ADI, ILMN, INCY, SYMC, CERN, AMZN, ADBE, TXN, EXPE, MDLZ, SWKS, AKAM, SBAC, EA, FB, PYPL, ENDP, ATVI, GILD, -4, 38

YTD: 233
SPX Leaders:  FCX, OKE, NEM, SE, PWR, SWN, MLM, CMI, CHK, HAL, (355, -16, > 10p 238, -19)
SPX Losers:  FSLR, GCI, PRGO, AGN, HRB, COTY, PBI, MNK, UA, MCK

NDX Leaders:  NVDA, AMAT, CHTR, CSX, TMUS, ULTA, NTAP, PCAR, MU, QCOM, (56, -8, >10p 37, -6)
NDX Losers:  ENDP, TRIP, VRTX, SRCL, ALXN, MYL, ILMN, NCLH, REGN, LBTYA

DJI Leaders:  CAT, UNH, CVX, GS, JPM, IBM, MRK, WMT, MMM, UTX, (23, -2, >10p 11, -2
DJI Losers:  NKE, DIS, KO, V, PFE, HD, INTC

Trade with the trend of the chart you are trading and continue to move your profit protection stops.  Continue to follow your rules.


The SPY MFC green line is in the upper zone at 88, bullish

56 of 100 NDX stocks closed higher on Friday.

40 NDX stocks are above their 30 DMA.

NDX Stocks to Watch on Monday:
Moving Above 30 DMA = 2
LRCX, NFLX,

Moving Below 30 DMA = 2
DISCA, SIRI,


6-month Intermediate Term Market Trend: Up
3-day Short Term Market Trend: Down

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