2016 RUT Wins Followed by DJI, SPX and NDX...Happy New Year...Be Safe and Enjoy!

Sector Trend Strength:

Up Trend: XLF, XLI, XLB, XLY, XLE, XLK, XLP

Sideways: XLV, XLU, XLRE

Down Trend:

For the week ended December 30, one of ten sectors moved higher.

XLRE +1.38%, XLU -0.08%, XLP -0.67%, XLV -0.75%,

SPY -0.97%,

Lagging sectors XLB -1.13%, XLI -1.22%, XLK -1.25%, XLY -1.27%, XLE -1.35%, XLF -1.40%,

YTD 252

Leading Sectors: XLE +24.87%, XLF +20.15%, XLI +17.37%, XLB +14.46%, XLK +12.91%, XLU +12.22%,

SPY +9.64%,

Lagging Sectors: XLY +4.14%, XLP +2.42%, XLRE -2.19%, XLV -4.29%

Breadth weakened as decliners led 1,647 to 1,361 on the NYSE and decliners led 1,680 to 1,104 on the NASDAQ.

Friday – weakened, decliners led, +2

Thursday – strengthened, advancers led on the NYSE, +5

Wednesday – weakened, decliners led, +0

Tuesday – strengthened, advancers led, +9

Monday – Christmas Holiday Observance

Oil futures were up .04 to close at 53.89 on Friday.  

SPY down .82 at 223.53 on 108.9 million shares, 32% above average volume,

VIX up .67 at 14.04

TLT up .18 at 119.13…on 10.6 million shares, 5% above average volume

Technical Commentary:

DIA -0.24%, SPY -0.37%, IWM -0.38%, QQQ -1.03%,

On Friday, the last trading day of 2016, the SPY broke short-term support on above average volume.  So did QQQ.  That’s the bad news.

The good news is:

SPY volume was as much as 59% below average in the morning. 

A late volume surge in the last two hours sent the daily volume above average.  The majority of the late volume, 30.3 million shares, came in the last 60 minutes and it was buying volume.

Friday’s SPY volume looks like a mini-capitulation volume day.

The SPY hit its 30 DMA support and bounced.

IWM and DIA held above short-term support.

XLF and many of its component stocks were positive on Friday, meaning financials did not confirm the move lower.

XLRE moved higher to short-term resistance and is a horizontal resistance breakout setup.

Breadth in decliners vs. advancers was not as overwhelming one would expect for a break of support.

Big buyers came in the last hour of trading going into a three-day weekend, look for potential continuation on Tuesday.

Prepare to be defensive if SPY, QQQ, IWM and DIA break and stay below their short-term support levels of the past two weeks.

SPX down 10.43 at 2,238

SPX losers NVDA, NEM, AA, SWKS, NUE, FCX, AMZN, CHK, OI, NFX, REGN, FIS, EA, AVGO, NWSA, VMC, QRVO, WRK, TXN, MU, CI, MNST, CMCSA, MRO, FLSR, MLM, CHTR, LEG, ABC, DRI, NWL, SBUX, SPLS, CHD, SYMC, GOOG, CBS, KSS

QQQ broke below old resistance, new short-term, support after staying above for twelve days.

  

NDX point losers: AMZN, MSFT, AAPL, GOOG, FB, NVDA, CMCSA, INTC, AVGO, QCOM, AMGN, CHTR, SBUX, TXN and CSCO

2016 in Review

2016 Returns are in and there was quite a dispersion:

RUT = 19.48%

DJI = 13.42%

SPX = 9.54%

NDX = 5.92%

                   (click image to enlarge)

2016 Strongest Sectors:  XLE, XLF, XLI, XLB

                  (click image to enlarge) 

2016 Weakest Sectors:  XLV, XLRE, XLP, XLY

                  (click image to enlarge)


2016 RUT Leaders:  CLF, FMSA, AKS, AMD

                  (click image to enlarge)

2016 DJIA Leaders:  CAT, UNH, GS, CVX

                  (click image to enlarge) 

2016 SPX Leaders:  OKE, FCX, NEM, PWR (NVDA in NDX)

                  (click image to enlarge)

2016 NDX Leaders:  NVDA, AMAT, MU, TMUS

                  (click image to enlarge)

2016 Q4 EPS

EPS Positive Reactions

MU, CAG, NKE, KMX, CCL, JBL

EPS Negative Reactions

RHT, BBBY, FINL, AGN, FDX, GIS, ADBE

Follow your rules and look for potential re-entry if you were stopped out of any profitable trades.

Continue to move up stops on short term bullish trades that could pull back.  All according to your profit protection rules.  If you moved stops you may have been stopped out today.

Remember breakouts typically test about 70% of the time.

Technical analysis based trades should be closed before earnings.

Trade what you see, not…

Stocks below support should generally be traded bearishly until a reversal pattern forms.

______________________

Strong Stocks: Setups and Moves You Can Use

Bull Flag Setups include: IWM, TSLA, COST, NVDA, MU, WDC, AMAT, XLNX, AVGO, NFLX, MAR, LRCX, CMCSA, CTXS, INTC, TXN, KLAC, PAYX, FISV, SOXL, ZION, CFG, SCHW, STI, JPM, C, BAC, USB, GS, SQ, ALK, DAL, LUV, UAL, MCD, DISCA, GOOG, TMUS,

One Day Pullback: CHTR, ADP,

Bull Flag Bounces include:

At Support Setups include: SPY, PWR, MGM, FAS, CMA, ETFC, HBAN, KEY, MS, RF, HIG, CCL, MSFT, TSCO, CE, BHI, STLD, AAL, CAR, CC, ATVI, ATI, PCLN, DAL, FAST, ICE, ADSK, STX, NCLH, BBY, EA, CSX, NUE, HAL, ADI, AKS, RCL, HES, GD,

Support Bounce:

Horizontal Breakout Setups include: TRV, LNG, AAPL, STX, CHKP, FTI,

EBAY, BA, UTX, MMM

Horizontal Breakouts include:

New Highs include: ADP,

Break of Support: UPS, ROST, SBUX, WBA, APA, PCAR, X,

______________________

Short-term Movers for the week:

SPX gainers:  AGN, NEM, MAC, EXR, VTR, UDR, COG, EQR, PSA, HCN, PLD, DLR, +10, 0,  +4, 2

SPX losers:  MNK, CHK, AA, QRVO BBY, FCX, NFX, APA, MRO, -4, 11

NDX gainers:  MYL, ENDP, SHPG, BIDU, +4, 0

NDX losers:  MU, SWKS, REGN, ALXN, NTES, AAL, WDC, BMRN, AVGO, MAT, NVDA, GILD, MNST, -4, 2,

YTD: 252

SPX Leaders:  OKE, FCX, NEM, PWR, SE, CMA, MLM, HAL, ZION, CHK (363, -14, > 10p 265, -7)

SPX Losers:  FSLR, PRGO, GCI, AGN, LB, HRB, UAA, MNK, MCK, FOSL

NDX Leaders:  NVDA, AMAT, MU, CHTR, TMUS, CSX, ULTA, PCAR, TXN, LRCX, (64, -1, >10p 43, -2)

NDX Losers:  ENDP, TRIP, VRTX, ALXN, ILMN, REGN, MYL, GILD, LBTYA, NCLH

DJI Leaders:  CAT, UNH, GS, CVX, JPM, IBM, MMM, XOM, VZ, UTX, (27, -1, >10p 17, +0

DJI Losers:  NKE, KO, DIS

Trade with the trend of the chart you are trading and continue to move your profit protection stops.  Continue to follow your rules.

CTAS, HAS, HOLX and KLAC were added to the NDX on Dec 19.  BBBY, NTAP, SRCL and WFM were removed in the annual changes to the NASDAQ-100.

The SPY MFC green line is in the upper zone at 81 bullish.  Prepare to become defensive. 

7 of 100 NDX stocks closed higher on Friday.

38 NDX stocks are above their 30 DMA.

NDX Stocks to Watch on Tuesday:

Moving Above 30 DMA = 1

ENDP

Moving Below 30 DMA = 15

AMZN, BIDU, CA, CMCSA, CSX, EA, FOXA, GOOG, HSIC, KLAC, MNST, PYPL, TSCO, TXN, ULTA

6-month Intermediate Term Market Trend: Up

3-day Short Term Market Trend: Down