Wednesday, December 14, 2016

FOMC Raises Rates, Indicates 3 in 2017...Stocks Fall...Bull Flags Prevelant...


Sector Trend Strength:
Up Trend: XLF, XLI, XLB, XLY, XLE, XLK
Sideways: XLV, XLRE, XLP
Down Trend: XLU

Breadth weakened as decliners led 2,430 to 608 on the NYSE and led 2,080 to 727 on the NASDAQ.

Wednesday – weakened, decliners led, +0
Tuesday – strengthened, advancers led, +8
Monday – weakened, decliners led, +5
Friday – weakened, advancers led on NASDAQ, +9
Thursday – weakened, advancers led, +7

Oil futures were down 1.69 to close at 50.77 on Wednesday.  


SPY down 1.88 at 225.88 on 142.5 million shares, 50% above average volume
VIX up .47 at 13.19
TLT down 1.32 at 116.82…on 16.6 million shares, 42% above average volume

Technical Commentary:
QQQ -0.21%, DIA -0.55%, SPY -0.83%, IWM -1.25%,

The Fed raised rates as expected and indicated it plans to raise rates three times in 2017.  Stocks sold off following the announcement.  The SPX was down less than 1% for the day.  This expected rate hike and the three indicated for 2017 is a sign that the Fed is expecting the economy to stay strong in the face of rising rates.

Wednesday’s pullback which is price fluctuation and is more likely a buying opportunity than a reversal. As always follow your rules.

SPX down 18 points at 2,253

QQQ is tested its horizontal resistance breakout on Tuesday.   

NDX point gainers: NVDA, CHTR, GILD and FOXA


Follow your rules and look for potential re-entry if you were stopped out of any profitable trades.

Continue to move up stops on short term bullish trades that could pull back.  All according to your profit protection rules.  If you moved stops you may have been stopped out today.


Remember breakouts typically test about 70% of the time.

Technical analysis based trades should be closed before earnings.

Trade what you see, not…

Stocks below support should generally be traded bearishly until a reversal pattern forms.


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Strong Stocks: Setups and Moves You Can Use
Bull Flag Setups include: X, STLD, NUE, SCHN, ATI, GD, MGM, CC, BAC, C, CFG, CMA, ETFC, GS, HBAN, HIG, ICE, KEY, MS, RF, SCHW, USB, ZION, PWR, BA, ALK, DAL, LUV, SAVE, SKYW, UAL, APA, BHI, CHK, HAL, BBY, CCL, FTI, JWN, AAP, BURL, AAL, ADI, ADSK, AMAT, AVGO, BBBY, CHKP, CSX, DISCA, EBAY, FAST, LRCX, MU, NCLH, NFLX, PCAR, PCLN, TMUS, WDC, IWM,
One Day Pullback: SPY, DIA, QQQ, FDX, HES, TRV ADBE, ADP, COST, INTC, MSFT, MYL, QCOM, SBUX, STX, WBA, UTX,

Bull Flag Bounces include: DISH, AKS, STI,

Horizontal Breakout Setups include: EA, JD, NVDA, TSLA, FB, CTXS, NTAP, FISV,

Horizontal Breakouts include: CHTR, GILD,

New Highs include: AAPL, MCD, XLNX, MAR, CE, SQ, JPM, PAYX, UPS, LNG, RCL, MMM, COST, SBUX

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Trade with the trend of the chart you are trading and continue to move your profit protection stops.  Continue to follow your rules.


The SPY MFC green line is pointed up at 95, bullish

27 of 100 NDX stocks closed higher and four were unchanged on Wednesday.

73 NDX stocks are above their 30 DMA.

NDX Stocks to Watch on Thursday:
Moving Above 30 DMA = 2
AKAM, FOXA,

Moving Below 30 DMA = 5
HSIC, MNST, SWKS, VOD, VRSK,


6-month Intermediate Term Market Trend: Up
3-day Short Term Market Trend: Neutral

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