Tuesday, November 1, 2016

SPX Breaks Support Falls to 2,097, Rallies to 2,111...Bearish Below 2,115...ADM, HRS, MOS Gain on EPS

One of ten sectors moved higher on TuesdayXLE, XLF and XLP were the strongest sectors while XLRE was the weakest sector.  Oil futures dropped .43 to close at 46.33, its lowest close since Sep. 27.


Breadth weakened as decliners led 2,292 to 744 on the NYSE and led 1,901 to 828 on the NASDAQ.

Tuesday – weakened, decliners led, +1
Monday – strengthened, advancers led on the NYSE, +6
Friday – strengthened, decliners led, +5
Thursday – weakened slightly, decliners led, +2
Wednesday – weakened slightly, advancers led, +4


SPY down 1.54 at 211.01 on 122.7 million shares, 41% above average volume
VIX up 1.50 at 18.56
TLT down .24 at 131.01…on 12.6 million shares, 56% above average volume

Technical Commentary:
SPY -0.72%, DIA -0.58%, QQQ -0.75%, IWM –1.22%,

SPX breaks and closes below 2,120, falls to 2,097 where buyers rally to 2,111 close
Bearish on the SPX below 2,115
VIX rises for sixth straight day
IWM fails to bounce on potential MACD bullish divergence
FOMC announcement Wednesday, expect no change in rates, volatility typically increases around announcement at 2 pm ET
Jobs report Friday
FB reports earnings after the close on Wednesday

SPX Leaders: ADM, AA, MLM, FIS, HRS, WYNN, MOS, TSCO, PDCO, VRTX, ILMN, NEM, IFF, JCI, COH, VMC, NBL, NAVI, CFG, CELG, PRGO, MYL, AME, VX, MCK and TAP

Earning winners and losers again indicates institutional money is rotating based on earnings.  Tuesday’s winners included ADM, HRS and MOS. 

After-hours Trading
Higher:
Lower: GILD, HLF, ILMN, PAYC, DATA, CAVM


Earnings Announcements
Monday – CHKP, DO, SCTY, TSO,
Tuesday – ADM, GILD, HRS, HLF, ILMN, MOS, NFX, NBL, PAYC, DATA, CAVM
Wednesday – BABA, AIG, FB, FSLR, QCOM, HSIC, SHOP, FOXA, UVE, YELP, RIG
Thursday – DDD, APA, CHTR, CS, FOSL, LVS, LBTYA, MNST, PRAA, SWKS, SBUX, SLCA, UBNT
Friday – MCHP,


EPS Positive Reactions
ADM, HRS, MOS, CHKP, TSO, RCL, HBI, SRCL, HSY, EMN, VRSN, UBS, BIDU, CRUS, EXPE, MO, CVX, FFIV, WDC, COP, DOW, AKAM, JNPR, BA, NCR, OI, FLIR, ROL, TSS, LMT, KEY, FCX, VLO, BHI, SAVE, AKS, TMUS, MCD, PYPL, MSFT, MXIM, AXP, SNA, MAT, BK, STLD, WBA, ALK, URI, HAL, MS, USB, NFLX, HOG, UNH, GS, CE, DPZ, CMA, UAL, HAS, DAL, CSX, COST, RHT, FDX, ADBE

EPS Negative Reactions
DO, SCTY, AMZN, MCK, ABC, CAH, GT, ABBV, LM, COG, CA, AMGN, AET, LITE, XOM, CLF, ORLY, NEM, POT, AAPL, EW, CMG, LUV, CMCSA, UA, P, WHR, PNRA, JBLU, GM, MMM, NLSN, WAT, SHW, MAS, PNR, MCO, EBAY, TRV, LRCX, TSCO, INTC, ISRG, ST, JNJ, IBM, AA, FAST, ILMN, MU, PAYX, CCL

EPS Neutral Reactions
GOOGL, PSX, SKYW, BX, CA, TWTR, UPS, TSLA, MO, NXPI, STT, GD, KO, ESRX, VRTX, PCAR, AAL, NUE, XLNX, CTXS, LLTC, BAC, C, JPM, PNC

Consider moving up stops on short term bullish trades that could pull back.  All according to your profit protection rules.

Remember breakouts typically test about 70% of the time.

Technical analysis based trades should be closed before earnings. After-hours

Trade what you see, not…

Stocks below support should generally be traded bearishly until a reversal pattern forms.


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Strong Stocks: Setups and Moves You Can Use
Bull Flag Setups include: MSFT, PYPL, MAT, CTXS, TMUS, WDC, VRSN, TXN, MXIM, NVDA, ULTA, SCHN, ALK, STI, AKS, X, QCOM, NFLX, BAC, C, MS, NTES, SAVE, MDLZ, SRCL, EXPE, AKAM,

Bull Flag Bounces include:

Horizontal Breakout Setups include: NUE, UAL,
HAS, RCL, ADSK, AMZN, ZION, AAL, NCLH, TRIP, CAVM, CCL, DO, SOXL, MLM

Horizontal Breakouts include: NEM, MLM,

New Highs include: DAL, CMA, DPZ, CE, GS, USB, HSY, STLD, JPM,

Horizontal Break of Support Setups include: ATVI, BBBY, BIDU, CERN, CMCSA, COST, CTRP, DLTR, JD, PCAR, SBUX, TSLA, 

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Trade with the trend of the chart you are trading and continue to move your profit protection stops.  Continue to follow your rules.


The SPY MFC green line is pointed down at 26, bearish. 

19 of 100 NDX stocks closed higher on Tuesday.

34 NDX stocks are above their 30 DMA.

NDX Stocks to Watch on Wednesday:
Moving Above 30 DMA = 3
CELG, CTSH, WFM

Moving Below 30 DMA = 10
ADSK, CSX, INTU, LRCX, LVNTA, MAT, NCLH, NTES, SBAC, TXN

6-month Intermediate Term Market Trend: Up

3-day Short Term Market Trend: Down

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