SPX Channel Grind Continues for 19th Day...

Three of nine sectors moved higher on Wednesday …XLU, XLP and XLF were the strongest sectors while XLE was the weakest sector.  Oil futures eased down 1.40 to close at 44.86.  Oil is forming a potential bull flag.

Breadth weakened as decliners led 1,871 to 1,152 on the NYSE and led 1,814 to 1,045 on the NASDAQ.

Wednesday – weakened, decliners led, +3

Tuesday – weakened, advancers led on the NASDAQ, +1

Monday – strengthened, advancers led, +9

Friday – weakened, decliners led, +3

Thursday – strengthened, advancers led, +4

SPY down .62 at 217.38 on 85.2 million shares, 40% above average volume

VIX up .30 at 13.42

TLT up .20 at 139.87…on 7.3 million shares, 18% above average volume

Technical Commentary:

QQQ -0.10%, SPY -0.28%, DIA -0.31%, IWM -0.56%,

Since last Thursday, XLF has been the leading sector.  Based on Yellen’s and Fischer’s comments last Friday in Jackson Hole, many have concluded that the Fed may raise rates is September.  Rate hikes are perceived as positive for financial stocks.

Last May, many expected the Fed to raise rates in June and when the June Jobs Report missed forecasts significantly, financial stocks sold off and moved lower for several trading days.

Many believe that Friday’s Job Report for August will give them the clue to whether the Fed actually raise rates in September.  Watch for the market reaction to Friday’s jobs report and trade according to what you see…trend, support and resistance and momentum.

Consider moving up stops on short term bullish trades that could pull back.  All according to your profit protection rules.

Remember breakouts typically test about 70% of the time.

Technical analysis based trades should be closed before earnings. After-hours

Trade what you see, not…

Stocks below support should generally be traded bearishly until a reversal pattern forms.

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Strong Stocks: Setups and Moves You Can Use

Bull Flag Setups include: HRL, ADSK, MU, IWM, WMB, URBN, JD, TIF, LB, KSS, ROST, AAPL, KMI, GPRO, RL, HLT, EA, MSFT, NVDA, WDC, QQQ, PCLN,

Bull Flag Bounces include: TWTR, BURL,

Horizontal Breakout Setups include: CCL, MPC, IWM, SPY, PCAR, CTRP, ATI, VLO, STX, PAYX, NFLX, AAL, MAT, HPE, CBG, AVGO, KMX, CHTR,

Horizontal Breakout include: INTC,

New Highs include: CBL, SWKS, ADBE, SYMC, TSN, WFC, GS, FAS, XLF, BAC, ZION, XLNX, JPM, AMBA, MS, C, PCAR, STT, CHK, WRK, NTAP, AVGO, AMAT, URI, ETFC,

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Trade with the trend of the chart you are trading and continue to move your profit protection stops.  Continue to follow your rules.

The SPY MFC green line is pointed down below 80 at 65, defensive.  SPY is above short-term support, take defensive action if SPY breaks below 217, otherwise trend is short-term trend is neutral and stay positioned accordingly.

44 of 100 NDX stocks closed higher and two were unchanged on Wednesday.

53 NDX stocks are above their 30 DMA.

NDX Stocks to Watch on Thursday:

Moving Above 30 DMA = 3

CHKP, LBTYA, SBAC

Moving Below 30 DMA = 6

ADI, BIIB, CA, CERN, GOOG, MAR

6-month Intermediate Term Market Trend: Up

3-day Short Term Market Trend: Neutral

SPX Pauses as RUT Gains...Financials Surge as Leading Sector...

One of nine sectors moved higher on Tuesday …XLF, XLB and XLI were the strongest sectors while XLV was the weakest sector.  Oil futures eased down .69 to close at 46.26.  Oil is forming a potential bull flag.

Breadth weakened as decliners led 1,553 to 1,451 on the NYSE and advancers led 1,504 to 1,317 on the NASDAQ.

Tuesday – weakened, advancers led on the NASDAQ, +1

Monday – strengthened, advancers led, +9

Friday – weakened, decliners led, +3

Thursday – strengthened, advancers led, +4

Wednesday – weakened, decliners led, +0

SPY down .36 at 218.00 on 58.1 million shares, 3% below average volume

VIX up .18 at 13.12

TLT down .54 at 139.67…on 6.2 million shares, 16% below average volume

Technical Commentary:

IWM +0.19%, SPY -0.17%, DIA -0.17%, QQQ -0.32%,

The SPX was led by gains in MOS, UAL, CF, MDLZ, TSO, MS, AAL, PRGO, BAC, WFC, MET, CNC and LUV.

SPX losers included HSY, NEM, GPS, FCX, ULTA, FOSL, MRO, NRG, BMY, URBN, DG, VFC, JEC and MUR.

Consider moving up stops on short term bullish trades that could pull back.  All according to your profit protection rules.

Remember breakouts typically test about 70% of the time.

Technical analysis based trades should be closed before earnings. After-hours

Trade what you see, not…

Stocks below support should generally be traded bearishly until a reversal pattern forms.

______________________

Strong Stocks: Setups and Moves You Can Use

Bull Flag Setups include: URBN, LB, M, KSS, CERN, ROST, AAPL, KMI, JD, MAR, HRL, WMB, JCP, TWTR, GPRO, RL, CAT, TIF, BURL, HLT,

Bull Flag Bounces include: EA, CHTR, IWM

Horizontal Breakout Setups include: MPC, IWM, SPY, PCAR, CTRP, INTC, ATI, VLO, STX, CCL, PAYX, NFLX, MSFT, AAL, NVDA, MAT, HPE, CBG, AVGO, WDC, QQQ, JWN, PCLN, KMX,

Horizontal Breakout include: GS, XLF, ETFC, C,

New Highs include: AMBA, MS, CBL, WFC, GS, JPM, C, FAS, XLF, PCAR, STT, CHK, BAC, ZION, XLNX, WRK, SWKS, SYMC, NTAP, AVGO, AMAT, ADSK, MU, ADBE, TSN, URI,

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Trade with the trend of the chart you are trading and continue to move your profit protection stops.  Continue to follow your rules.

The SPY MFC green line is pointed down below 80 at 67, defensive.  SPY is above short-term support, take defensive action if SPY breaks below 217, otherwise trend is short-term trend is neutral and stay positioned accordingly.

33 of 100 NDX stocks closed higher and one was unchanged on Tuesday.

56 NDX stocks are above their 30 DMA.

NDX Stocks to Watch on Wednesday:

Moving Above 30 DMA = 1

MDLZ

Moving Below 30 DMA = 6

AMGN, BMRN, SBAC, SBUX, TMUS, VOD

6-month Intermediate Term Market Trend: Up

3-day Short Term Market Trend: Neutral

SPX Bounces In 17-day Channel as Material and Financial Stocks Lead...

All nine sectors moved higher on Monday …XLB, XLF and XLU were the strongest sectors while XLV was the weakest sector.  Oil futures eased down .34 to close at 46.95.  Oil is forming a potential bull flag.

Breadth strengthened as advancers led 2,202 to 830 on the NYSE and led 1,772 to 1,059 on the NASDAQ.

Monday – strengthened, advancers led, +9

Friday – weakened, decliners led, +3

Thursday – strengthened, advancers led, +4

Wednesday – weakened, decliners led, +0

Tuesday – strengthened, advancers led, +7

SPY up 1.07 at 218.36 on 70.5 million shares, 18% above average volume

VIX down .71 at 12.94

TLT up 1.85 at 140.21…on 7.3 million shares, 16% above average volume

Technical Commentary:

DIA +0.55%, QQQ +0.52%, SPY +0.49%, IWM +0.14%,

Material stocks CF, AA, NEM, PPG and financial stocks WFC, VTR, AIV, PFG and WY led the SPX.

Twenty seven of 30 Dow stocks rose led by DD, TRV, AXP, JPM and IBM. 

Consider moving up stops on short term bullish trades that could pull back.  All according to your profit protection rules.

Remember breakouts typically test about 70% of the time.

Technical analysis based trades should be closed before earnings. After-hours

Trade what you see, not…

Stocks below support should generally be traded bearishly until a reversal pattern forms.

______________________

Strong Stocks: Setups and Moves You Can Use

Bull Flag Setups include: URBN, EA, CHTR, LB, M, KSS, CERN, ROST, AAPL, KMI, JD, MAR, HRL, WMB, JCP, TWTR, IWM, GPRO, RL, CAT,

Bull Flag Bounces include: MPC, PCAR, GS, TMUS, KMX,

Horizontal Breakout Setups include: SPY, XLF, PCAR, GS, ETFC, CTRP, INTC, ATI, KMX, TMUS, VLO, STX, CCL, TIF, PAYX, NFLX, MSFT, AAL, MPC, C, HLT, NVDA, MAT, HPE, CBG, AVGO, WDC, QQQ, JWN, SBAC, PCLN, MPC,

Horizontal Breakout include: CBL, MU, ADBE, WFC, JPM, FAS, TSN, URI,

New Highs include: AMBA, WRK, SWKS, SYMC, PCAR, STT, CHK, BAC, ZION, MS, NTAP, AVGO, AMAT, ADSK, TIF, BURL, XLNX,

______________________

 Trade with the trend of the chart you are trading and continue to move your profit protection stops.  Continue to follow your rules.

The SPY MFC green line is pointed down below 80 at 71, defensive.  SPY is above short-term support, take defensive action if SPY breaks below 217, otherwise trend is short-term trend is neutral and stay positioned accordingly.

58 of 100 NDX stocks closed higher and two were unchanged on Monday.

61 NDX stocks are above their 30 DMA.

NDX Stocks to Watch on Tuesday:

Moving Above 30 DMA = 4

CSX, SBAC, TMUS, VOD

Moving Below 30 DMA = 1

CHKP

6-month Intermediate Term Market Trend: Up

3-day Short Term Market Trend: Neutral

SPX Rises following Yellen Comments, Fall after Fischer Speaks...Volatility Jumps Intra-day on Friday...

Three of nine sectors moved higher on Friday …XLV, XLF and XLK were the strongest sectors while XLU was the weakest sector.  Oil futures eased down .09 to close at 47.29.  Oil is forming a potential bull flag.

For the week ended August 26,

XLF +0.42%, XLK +0.06%, XLB -0.53%,

SPY -0.57%,

Lagging sectors XLI -0.61%, XLY -0.69%, XLP -1.11%, XLE -1.46%, XLV -1.73%, XLU -2.23%,

All nine sectors continued to be YTD positive after all nine sectors had turned YTD positive for the first time three weeks ago.

YTD 165

Leading Sectors: XLE +15.02%, XLU +13.56%, XLB +12.23%, XLI +10.66%, XLK +9.85%, XLP +7.57%,

SPY +6.58%,

Lagging Sectors: XLY +3.56%, XLV +1.44%, XLF +1.17%,

Breadth weakened as decliners led 1,820 to 1,205 on the NYSE and led 1,487 to 1,326 on the NASDAQ.

Friday – weakened, decliners led, +3

Thursday – strengthened, advancers led, +4

Wednesday – weakened, decliners led, +0

Tuesday – strengthened, advancers led, +7

Monday – strengthened, advancers led, +3

SPY down .41 at 217.29 on 122.5 million shares, 106% above average volume

VIX up .02 at 13.65

TLT down .81 at 138.36…on 12.9 million shares, 107% above average volume

Technical Commentary:

QQQ +0.15%, SPY -0.19%, IWM -0.20%, DIA -0.30%,

On Friday morning the SPX rose after Fed Chair Janet Yellen indicated a strong labor market supported an interest rate hike this year while also indicating that slow GDP growth, weak global economies and an uncertain economic outlook made it less clear. 

Later Friday morning Vice Chair Fischer indicated that Yellen’s comments were consistent with a September rate hike which increased volatility and sent stocks lower.  VIX spiked to 14.03 as the SPY fell to 216.35.  Stocks rallied and the SPY closed at 217.29 while VIX fell back to 13.65.

Earnings reactions on Friday

ADSK +5.17 +8.12%

ULTA -16.60, -6.12%,

GME -3.42, -10.63%,

Consider moving up stops on short term bullish trades that could pull back.  All according to your profit protection rules.

Remember breakouts typically test about 70% of the time.

Technical analysis based trades should be closed before earnings. After-hours

Trade what you see, not…

Stocks below support should generally be traded bearishly until a reversal pattern forms.

______________________

Strong Stocks: Setups and Moves You Can Use

Bull Flag Setups include: MPC, URBN, EA, PCAR, GS, CHTR, LB, M, KSS, CERN, ROST, TMUS, KMX, AAPL, KMI, JD, MAR, HRL, WMB, JCP, TWTR, IWM, GPRO, RL, CAT,

Bull Flag Bounces include: MU, CTRP, PCLN,

Horizontal Breakout Setups include: CBL, ETFC, MU, CTRP, INTC, VLO, STX, CCL, ADBE, TIF, PAYX, NFLX, MSFT, AAL, MPC, C, PAYX, WFC, HLT, JPM, SPY, FAS, XLF, NVDA, TSN, MAT, HPE, CBG, AVGO, URI, WDC, QQQ, JWN, SBAC,

Horizontal Breakout include:

New Highs include: ADSK, WRK, TIF, BURL, SWKS, BAC, ZION, AMBA, MS, NTAP, AVGO, AMAT, CHK, XLNX, SYMC, PCAR, STT

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Short-term Movers for the week:

SPX gainers:  BBY, CMG, TIF, DLH, WRK, CHK, SWN, CF, CBG, BAC, MET, CRM, ETFC, +4, 11

SPX losers:  DG, SIG, SJM, NEM, FCX, WYNN, GRMN, MNK, FOSL, AGN, STJ, MCK, OKE, AZO, MRO, DO, HAL, NFX, M, PCG, MUR, CI, JBHT, -4, 30

NDX gainers:  ADSK, INCY, BMRN, AKAM, SBUX, NTES, SWKS, STX, CTRP, CSCO, ATVI, MAT, +4, 5

NDX losers:  MYL, DLTR, ENDP, ULTA, NCLH, VIAB, ESRX, LMCA, -4, 8,

YTD: 165

SPX Leaders:  NEM, SWN, OKE, URBN, RRC, FCX, XEC, SE, PVH, ALB (353, +0 > 10p 241, -7)

SPX Losers:  FSLR, CF, PRGO, SIG, RCL, TSO, DAL, ADS, HRB, GCI

NDX Leaders:  NVDA, AMAT, LLTC, ULTA, CHTR, NTAP, TXN, YHOO, PCAR, QCOM, (62, -3, >10p 36, -2)

NDX Losers:  ENDP, LMCA, NCLH, ALXN, SRCL, TRIP, WDC, LVTYA, INCY, JD,

DJI Leaders:  CAT, MMM, MRK, UNH, WMT, JNJ, CSCO, IBM, VZ, CVX (24, +1, >10p 13, +1)

DJI Losers:  DIS, BA, GS, AXP, NKE, MCD

Trade with the trend of the chart you are trading and continue to move your profit protection stops.  Continue to follow your rules.

The SPY MFC green line is pointed down below 80 at 72, defensive.  SPY is above short-term support, take defensive action if SPY breaks below 217, otherwise trend is short-term trend is neutral and stay positioned accordingly.

56 of 100 NDX stocks closed higher and three were unchanged on Friday.

58 NDX stocks are above their 30 DMA.

NDX Stocks to Watch on Monday:

Moving Above 30 DMA = 4

BMRN, CA, CHKP, VRSK

Moving Below 30 DMA = 5

ORLY, SBAC, TMUS, ULTA, VOD

6-month Intermediate Term Market Trend: Up

3-day Short Term Market Trend: Neutral

SPX Holds Support...Advancers Lead...Oil Bounces...

Four of nine sectors moved higher on Thursday …XLB, XLK and XLF were the strongest sectors while XLV was again the weakest sector.  Oil futures rose .58 to close at 47.38.   Oil is forming a potential bull flag.

Breadth strengthened as advancers led 1,632 to 1,316 on the NYSE and led 1,341 to 1,176 on the NASDAQ.

Thursday – strengthened, advancers led, +4

Wednesday – weakened, decliners led, +0

Tuesday – strengthened, advancers led, +7

Monday – strengthened, advancers led, +3

Friday – weakened, decliners led, +3

SPY down .15 at 217.70 on 67.4 million shares, 13% above average volume

VIX up .18 at 13.63

TLT down .53 at 139.17…on 5.5 million shares, 11% below average volume

Technical Commentary:

IWM +0.20%, SPY -0.07%, QQQ -0.16%, DIA -0.16%,

IWM pulled back for a second day formed a piercing line candle and is in a bull flag price pattern.  SPY, QQQ and DIA are at their short-term support of their current 15-day sideways channel. 

Consumer Discretionary stocks DG -16.18, -17.63%, SIG -12.05, -12.63% and DLTR -9.43, -9.93% gapped down following negative earnings reactions.  Big losers on Wednesday also included ESRX, STJ, MNK, ENDP, CVS, ABC and MCK.

Positive earnings reactions on Thursday included TIF +4.41, +6.40% and BURL +2.45, +3.12%. 

After the close ADSK +2.10, +3.30% on a positive EPS reaction and ULTA -3.45, -1.27% was down on a negative reaction.

Consider moving up stops on short term bullish trades that could pull back.  All according to your profit protection rules.

Remember breakouts typically test about 70% of the time.

Technical analysis based trades should be closed before earnings. After-hours

Trade what you see, not…

Stocks below support should generally be traded bearishly until a reversal pattern forms.

______________________

Strong Stocks: Setups and Moves You Can Use

Bull Flag Setups include: MPC, URBN, EA, BX, PCAR, GS, MU, CHTR, LB, M, KSS, CERN, ROST, TMUS, CTRP, KMX, AAPL, PCLN, KMI, JD, MAR, HRL, INTC, WMB, JCP, TWTR, IWM,

Bull Flag Bounces include: WRK, CBL, AAL, SBAC, ETFC,

Horizontal Breakout Setups include: CBL, VLO, CCL, ADBE, TIF, PAYX, ZION, NFLX, MSFT, AAL, MPC, C, PAYX, WFC, HLT, JPM, KHC, ADBE, SPY, FAS, XLF, NVDA, TSN, MAT, HPE, STX, CBG, AVGO, URI, WDC, QQQ, GPRO, JWN, RL, CAT,

Horizontal Breakout include: TIF, WRK, ZION, CHK,

New Highs include: TIF, BURL, SWKS, BAC, AMBA, MS, NTAP, XLNX, SYMC, PCAR, STT, ADSK, AVGO, AMAT,

______________________

Trade with the trend of the chart you are trading and continue to move your profit protection stops.  Continue to follow your rules.

The SPY MFC green line is pointed down below 80 at 79.17, defensive.  SPY is above short-term support, take defensive action if SPY breaks below 217, otherwise the short-term trend is neutral and stay positioned accordingly.

50 of 100 NDX stocks closed higher and on Thursday.

60 NDX stocks are above their 30 DMA.

NDX Stocks to Watch on Friday:

Moving Above 30 DMA = 2

ATVI, SBAC,

Moving Below 30 DMA = 6

ALXN, BMRN, CA, CSX, DISCA, WBA

6-month Intermediate Term Market Trend: Up

3-day Short Term Market Trend: Neutral