Wednesday, January 20, 2016

Long Tail Hammer as Institutions Turn Big Red to White...Capitulation Bottom?...XLV Gains...Small Caps Lead...

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Just one of nine sectors moved higher on WednesdayXLV, XLB and XLK were the strongest sectors while XLE was again the weakest sector.  Oil fell $1.10 from Tuesday’s close of 29.43 to close at 28.33.
                         
Breadth weakened as decliners led advancers 2.54 to 1 on the NYSE and strengthened as decliners led 1.12 to 1 on the NASDAQ.

Wednesday – mixed, decliners led
Tuesday – strengthened, decliners led
Monday – MLK, Jr. Holiday
Friday – weakened, decliners led
Thursday- strengthened, advancers led

SPY down 2.41 at 185.65 on 286.6 million shares, 89% above average volume
VIX up 1.54 at 27.59…
TNX down .51 at 19.84…
TLT up 1.32 at 126.68…on 17.2 million shares, 91% above average volume
XLF down .42 at 20.99…on 87.4 million shares, 59% above average volume

AAPL up .13 at 96.79 on 72.3 million shares, 44% above average volume
FB down .92 at 94.35 on 59.0 million shares, 126% above average volume

Technical Commentary:
IWM +0.42%, QQQ -0.31%, SPY -1.28%, DIA -1.51%.

SPY/SPX opened significantly lower from overnight futures trading and sold off aggressively to the August support area.  Around mid-day selling exhausted and an intra-day reversal occurred sending to price to daily highs. 


On a daily chart SPY, DIA, QQQ, XLE, XLF, XLI, XLK, XLP and XLY formed a long-tail hammer on heavy volume.  This is often an indication of a capitulation bottom where buyers take over from sellers.  IWM and XLV were both positive for the day and formed piercing line candle patterns.

The Healthcare sector XLE was the only positive sector on Wednesday as ENDP, CELG, REGN, AMGN, BMRN, MYL, VRTX and ALXN gained 2%+ in the NDX and ABBV, THC gained 2%+ in the SPX.  Notice the basin action in ENDP, CELG, AMGN, MYL and separately in ABBV and THC.
                  (click image to enlarge)


The NDX lost -10.79 points with AMGN, MSFT, CELG, REGN, GILD, AVGO, TXN, ALXN and NXPI creating +10.4 points.

Five Dow stocks moved higher led by UNH, NKE, AXP, MSFT and AAPL.

Look at the basing in these SPX gainers:  SWN, COG, EQT, FCX, MCHP, SHW, M.


NFLX’s +8.96, +8.29% Tuesday after-hours gains, on positive adj. EPS of 7 cents vs. 2 cents estimate, disappeared by the open Wednesday and sold off to a low of 97.05 before rebounding in afternoon trading to close down 15 cents at 107.74

Earnings this week:
Tuesday: BAC, DAL, MS, SCHW, UNH, VZ, NFLX, LLTC, IBM
Wednesday:  GS, XLNX, FFIV
Thursday:  LUV, TRV, UAL, UNP, AXP, EFTC, ISRG, MXIM, SBUX, SLB
Friday:  GE, KSU, STI

YTD:
SPX Leaders:  M, FLIR, TWX, EQT, ED, SWN, HAS, WEC, BXLT, CPB
SPX Losers: FCX, WMB, MRO, APC, ESV, CNX, DVN, AA, BWA, MUR
                        
NDX Leaders:  ISRG, DISCK, VIAB, CTSH, DLTR, KHC, EA
NDX Losers: INCY, MU, WDC, LBTYA, VRTX, BMRN, ADSK, STX, SWKS, NTAP

DJI Leaders:  WMT, MCD, UNH
DJI Losers: DD, JPM, CSCO, BA, GS, INTC, CAT, CVX, HD, DIS, IBM, GE


Remember:  “It’s a market of stocks, not just a stock market.”

Trade with the trend of the chart you are trading and continue to move your profit protection stops.  Continue to follow your rules.


The SPX MFC green line is pointed slightly down at 11.32. 

__________________

SSetups
Horizontal Breakout: M, MTSI, FSLR, ANTM, CNC, FL, CPB, STZ, ABBV, QIHU, PEG, PRGO, VIAB, XLU, CELG, MCD, ED, WEC, GLD,
Diagonal Breakout: EAT, WMT, RAI, DPS, NTES, TERP, DLTR, CTSH, HAS, SE, MO, NKE
Bull Flag: O, TWX, DRI, FIVE, SEDG, FLIR, STZ,
Potential Bullish Divergence: EMR, ATVI, CRM, SONC, V, BSX, CRUS
Bear Flag: SPY, DIA, QQQ, IWM,
At Support: KSS, EQIX, ROST, YELP, BWA, QRVO, AAPL, EXR, CAH

Moves
D Breakout: FINL,
MACD Divergence Bounce: W, NKE,
Gap Up: TLT, LLTC
Bear Flag: WYNN, LVS, XLF, XLI, XLK, XLP, XLY

______________________

39 of 100 NDX stocks closed higher on Wednesday.

1 NDX stock is above its 30 DMA.

NDX Stocks to Watch on Thursday:
Moving Above 30 DMA = 0

Moving Below 30 DMA = 2
CTSH, VIAB


6-month Intermediate Term Market Trend: Neutral
3-day Short Term Market Trend: Down


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