Monday, January 4, 2016

U.S. Stocks Gap Lower Following Asian and European Markets Down...Find Support and Bounce Forming Divergences, Flags and Hammers...

All nine sectors moved lower on Monday, the first trading day of 2016XLE, XLU and XLP were the strongest sectors while XLF was the weakest sector

Breadth weakened as decliners led advancers 2.16 to 1 on the NYSE and 3.25 to 1 on the NASDAQ.

Monday – weakened, decliners led
Friday – New Year Holiday
Thursday- weakened, decliners led
Wednesday – weakened, decliners led
Tuesday – strengthened, advancers led


SPY down 2.85 at 201.02 on 222.3 million shares, 96% above average volume
VIX up 2.49 at 20.70…
TNX down .24 at 22.45…
TLT up .87 at 121.45…on 10.5 million shares, 41% above average volume
XLF down .46 at 23.37…on 75.8 million shares, 87% above average volume

AAPL up .09 at 105.35 on 67.6 million shares, 70% above average volume
FB down 2.44 at 102.22 on 37.9 million shares, 89% above average volume

Technical Commentary:
SPY -1.40%, DIA -1.55%, QQQ –2.11%, IWM -2.32%.

Asian and European markets closed lower on Monday following weak manufacturing data in China.  US futures traded lower overnight in sympathy and stocks gapped down on Monday’s open.

Many charts formed MACD bullish divergence on similar or lower price lows and many also formed a bullish hammer on the daily chart.  Solar stocks SUNE, SCTY, SPWR, FSLR and TERP finished higher on MondayOthers including SEDG, JASO, JKS, TSL, CSIQ and RUN are in bull flag patterns.

Oil fell 19 cents to close at 36.88 after trading higher Monday morning


SPX Leaders:  CHK, CNX, SWN, BXLT
SPX Losers: CMG, FOSL, AMZN, YHOO

NDX Leaders:  DLTR, SWKS, MU, ROST
NDX Losers: JD, TSLA, AMZN, YHOO

DJI Leaders:  WMT, AAPL, CAT, XOM
DJI Losers: DD, JPM, BA, AXP

If you did not see Thursday’s post with the NDX/QQQ distribution of 2015 one year returns for the 100 stocks on Dec 31 here it is for your review.  60 stocks with positive returns, 38 stocks with negative returns and two stocks trading less than one year.

Up > 20% = NFLX, AMZN, CTRP, ATVI, NVDA, INCY, GOOGL, SBUX, EA, EXPE, TMUS, ULTA, AVGO, JD, MNST, FB, REGN, ORLY, ADBE, FISV, NCLH, MDLZ, VRSK (23)

Up 10% to 19.99% = LVNTA, MSFT, MXIM, CTXS, EBAY, SIRI, HSIC, BMRN, PAYX, TRIP, ROST, CTSH, COST, PCLN, WBA, LMCA, NXPI (17)

Up 0% to 9.99% = CHTR, DLTR, XLNX, TSCO, TSLA, GILD, CELG, SWKS, VRTX, INTU, ILMN, CHKP, ISRG, ESRX, ALXN, TXN, AMGN, ADP, ADSK, LRCX (20)

Down -0.01% to -9.99% = BIIB, SRCL, CERN, LLTC, CA, VOD, SBAC, INTC, AAPL, MYL, CMCSA, CSCO, KLAC, ADI (14)

Down > -10% = MU, WDC, VIAB, STX, BBBY, NTAP, YHOO, WFM, QCOM, PCAR, FOXA, AMAT, DISCA, SNDK, DISH, AAL, SYMC, BIDU, AKAM, LBTYA, ENDP, FAST, MAR, MAT (24)

Two stocks PYPL and KHC have been trading for less than one year.

The NDX distribution of returns should convince you that:  “It’s a market of stocks, not just a stock market.”

Trade with the trend of the chart you are trading and continue to move your profit protection stops.  Continue to follow your rules.

The SPX MFC green line is pointed down at 52. 

Short-term Chart Targets:
SPY =...203.40
QQQ = 110.65…
IWM = 111.68…
                   
Support Levels
SPY = 198.59
QQQ = 108.12
IWM = 109.08

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Setups
Horizontal Breakout: YELP,
Diagonal Breakout: TERP, YNDX,
Bull Flag: AA, AIG, CAH, CCL, CNC, CSIQ, DRI, FSLR, JASO, KMB, MCD, MPEL, PLAY, RCL, RUN, SEDG, SOHU, SONC, SPWR, TSL, W, WUBA, AVGO, ILMN, MYL, MCD, KMB,
Potential Bullish Divergence: CRUS, ETFC, JBL, LNKD, MS, NKE, PANW, QRVO, SCHW, TPX, VRSN, ZION, AAPL, ADSK, AMZN, COST, GOOGL, INTC, LLTC, MSFT, NFLX, NVDA, SBUX, SWKS, TXN
Bear Flag: MNST,
At Support: AMBA, DPS, KR, FB, ADBE, ATVI, LRCX, NVDA 

Moves
New Highs: BXLT
D Breakout: SLCA,
Bull Flag Bounce: FINL, FIVE, SCTY, SUNE,
MACD Divergence Bounce: SLCA
Gap Up: VXX, BXLT, TLT
Gap Down:  SPY, DIA, QQQ, IWM, FAS, TSLA, NFLX, AMZN, JD, BABA, BAC, C, CRM, DAL, KWEB, NKE, NTES, STI, SVXY, TBT, V


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14 of 100 NDX stocks closed higher on Monday.

21 NDX stocks are above their 30 DMA.

NDX Stocks to Watch on Tuesday:
Moving Above 30 DMA = 0


Moving Below 30 DMA = 27
ADBE, AMAT, AMGN, AMZN, ATVI, CA, CERN, CSCO, ENDP, FAST, GOOGL, HSIC, ILMN, JD, LRCX, LVNTA, MDLZ, MSFT, NCLH, NVDA, PYPL, SRCL, TRIP, TSLA, VRSK, VRTX, WBA

6-month Intermediate Term Market Trend: Neutral
3-day Short Term Market Trend: Down

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