Sector Trend Strength:
Up Trend: XLF, XLI, XLB, XLY, XLE, XLK, XLP
Sideways: XLV, XLU, XLRE
Down Trend:
For the week ended December 30, one of
ten sectors moved higher.
XLRE +1.38%,
XLU -0.08%, XLP -0.67%, XLV
-0.75%,
SPY -0.97%,
Lagging sectors XLB -1.13%, XLI -1.22%, XLK
-1.25%, XLY -1.27%, XLE
-1.35%, XLF -1.40%,
YTD 252
Leading Sectors: XLE +24.87%, XLF +20.15%,
XLI +17.37%, XLB +14.46%,
XLK +12.91%, XLU +12.22%,
SPY +9.64%,
Lagging Sectors: XLY +4.14%, XLP +2.42%,
XLRE -2.19%, XLV -4.29%
Breadth weakened as decliners led 1,647 to 1,361
on the NYSE and decliners led 1,680 to 1,104 on the NASDAQ.
Friday
– weakened, decliners led, +2
Thursday – strengthened, advancers
led on the NYSE, +5
Wednesday – weakened, decliners led, +0
Tuesday –
strengthened, advancers led, +9
Monday – Christmas Holiday
Observance
Oil futures were up
.04 to close at 53.89 on Friday.
SPY down .82
at 223.53 on 108.9 million shares, 32%
above average volume,
VIX up
.67 at 14.04
TLT up
.18 at 119.13…on 10.6 million shares, 5% above average volume
Technical Commentary:
DIA -0.24%, SPY -0.37%, IWM
-0.38%, QQQ -1.03%,
On
Friday, the last trading day of 2016, the SPY broke short-term support on above average volume. So
did QQQ.
That’s the bad news.
The
good news is:
SPY
volume was as much as 59% below average in
the morning.
A
late volume surge in the last two hours sent the daily
volume above average. The majority of the late volume, 30.3 million
shares, came in the last 60 minutes and it was buying volume.
Friday’s
SPY volume looks like a mini-capitulation volume day.
The
SPY hit its 30 DMA support and bounced.
IWM and DIA held above
short-term support.
XLF
and many of its component stocks were
positive on Friday, meaning financials
did not confirm the move lower.
XLRE
moved higher to short-term resistance and is
a horizontal resistance breakout setup.
Breadth
in decliners vs. advancers was not as overwhelming
one would expect for a break of support.
Big
buyers came in the last hour of trading going into a three-day weekend, look
for potential continuation on Tuesday.
Prepare to be defensive if SPY, QQQ, IWM and DIA break and stay below their short-term support levels of the past two weeks.
SPX down 10.43 at 2,238
SPX losers NVDA, NEM, AA, SWKS, NUE, FCX, AMZN, CHK, OI, NFX, REGN, FIS, EA, AVGO, NWSA, VMC, QRVO, WRK, TXN, MU, CI, MNST, CMCSA, MRO, FLSR, MLM, CHTR, LEG, ABC, DRI, NWL, SBUX, SPLS, CHD, SYMC, GOOG, CBS, KSS
QQQ broke below old resistance, new short-term, support after staying above for twelve days.
NDX point losers: AMZN, MSFT, AAPL, GOOG, FB, NVDA, CMCSA, INTC, AVGO, QCOM, AMGN, CHTR, SBUX, TXN and CSCO
2016 in Review
2016
Returns are in and there was quite a dispersion:
RUT =
19.48%
DJI =
13.42%
SPX =
9.54%
NDX =
5.92%
2016 Strongest
Sectors: XLE, XLF, XLI, XLB
(click image to
enlarge)
2016 Weakest
Sectors: XLV, XLRE, XLP, XLY
2016 RUT Leaders: CLF, FMSA, AKS, AMD
(click image to
enlarge)
2016 DJIA
Leaders: CAT, UNH, GS, CVX
(click image to
enlarge)
2016 SPX
Leaders: OKE, FCX, NEM, PWR (NVDA in
NDX)
(click image to
enlarge)
2016 NDX Leaders: NVDA, AMAT, MU, TMUS
(click image to
enlarge)
2016 Q4 EPS
EPS Positive Reactions
MU, CAG,
NKE, KMX, CCL, JBL
EPS Negative Reactions
RHT,
BBBY, FINL, AGN, FDX, GIS, ADBE
Follow
your rules and look for potential re-entry if you were stopped out of any
profitable trades.
Continue
to move up stops on short term bullish trades that could pull back. All according to your profit protection rules.
If you moved stops you may have been stopped out today.
Remember
breakouts typically test about 70% of the time.
Technical analysis based trades should be closed before earnings.
Trade
what you see, not…
Stocks below support should generally be traded bearishly until a reversal pattern forms.
______________________
Strong Stocks: Setups and Moves You Can Use
Bull Flag Setups include: IWM, TSLA, COST, NVDA, MU, WDC, AMAT, XLNX, AVGO, NFLX,
MAR, LRCX, CMCSA, CTXS, INTC, TXN, KLAC, PAYX, FISV, SOXL, ZION, CFG, SCHW, STI,
JPM, C, BAC, USB, GS, SQ, ALK, DAL, LUV, UAL, MCD, DISCA, GOOG, TMUS,
One Day Pullback: CHTR, ADP,
Bull Flag Bounces include:
At Support Setups include: SPY, PWR,
MGM, FAS, CMA, ETFC, HBAN, KEY, MS, RF, HIG, CCL, MSFT, TSCO, CE, BHI, STLD,
AAL, CAR, CC, ATVI, ATI, PCLN, DAL, FAST, ICE, ADSK, STX, NCLH, BBY, EA, CSX,
NUE, HAL, ADI, AKS, RCL, HES, GD,
Support Bounce:
Horizontal Breakout Setups include: TRV, LNG, AAPL, STX, CHKP,
FTI,
EBAY,
BA, UTX, MMM
Horizontal Breakouts include:
New Highs include: ADP,
Break of Support: UPS, ROST, SBUX, WBA, APA, PCAR, X,
______________________
Short-term Movers for the week:
SPX gainers: AGN, NEM, MAC, EXR, VTR, UDR, COG, EQR, PSA, HCN, PLD, DLR, +10, 0, +4, 2
SPX losers: MNK, CHK, AA, QRVO BBY, FCX, NFX, APA, MRO, -4, 11
NDX gainers: MYL, ENDP, SHPG, BIDU, +4,
0
NDX losers: MU, SWKS, REGN, ALXN, NTES, AAL, WDC, BMRN, AVGO, MAT, NVDA,
GILD, MNST, -4, 2,
YTD: 252
SPX Leaders:
OKE, FCX, NEM, PWR, SE, CMA, MLM, HAL, ZION, CHK (363, -14, > 10p 265, -7)
SPX Losers: FSLR, PRGO, GCI, AGN,
LB, HRB, UAA, MNK, MCK, FOSL
NDX Leaders:
NVDA, AMAT, MU, CHTR, TMUS, CSX, ULTA, PCAR, TXN, LRCX, (64, -1, >10p 43, -2)
NDX Losers: ENDP, TRIP, VRTX, ALXN,
ILMN, REGN, MYL, GILD, LBTYA, NCLH
DJI Leaders:
CAT, UNH, GS, CVX, JPM, IBM, MMM, XOM, VZ, UTX, (27, -1, >10p 17, +0
DJI Losers: NKE, KO, DIS
Trade with the trend of
the chart you are trading and
continue to move your profit protection stops. Continue to follow your rules.
CTAS, HAS, HOLX and KLAC were added
to the NDX on Dec 19. BBBY,
NTAP, SRCL and WFM were removed in the annual changes to the
NASDAQ-100.
The SPY MFC green line is in the upper zone at
81 bullish. Prepare to become defensive.
7 of 100
NDX stocks closed higher on Friday.
38 NDX stocks are above their 30 DMA.
NDX Stocks to Watch on Tuesday:
Moving Above 30 DMA = 1
ENDP
Moving Below 30 DMA = 15
AMZN, BIDU, CA, CMCSA,
CSX, EA, FOXA, GOOG, HSIC, KLAC, MNST, PYPL, TSCO, TXN, ULTA
6-month Intermediate
Term Market Trend: Up
3-day Short Term Market
Trend: Down
