Five of nine sectors moved higher on Friday…XLV, XLY and XLP were the
strongest sectors…XLU was the weakest sector.
Sector Posture
Positive trend: XLE, XLP, XLU
Neutral trend near
resistance: XLB, XLI, XLK
Neutral trend near
support: XLF, XLV, XLY
Breadth strengthened…as advancers led decliners 1.39 to 1 on the NYSE and 2.13 to 1 on the NASDAQ.
Friday – strengthened, advancers led
Thursday – weakened,
decliners led
Wednesday –
strengthened, advancers led
Tuesday – weakened,
decliners led
Monday – weakened,
decliners led
SPY up .28 at 187.96 on 83.7 million shares
VIX down .51 at 12.92…
TNX up .21 at 26.23…
TLT down .36 at 111.24...
XLF down .01 at 21.94 on 23.9 million shares, below average volume
AAPL down 2.45 at 585.54 on 10.4 million shares
FB up .48 at 57.24…on 52.5 million shares, below average volume
Technical Commentary:
IWM +0.92%,
QQQ +0.37%, DIA +0.22%, SPY +0.15%.
DJIA all-time closing high
at 16,583.34
XLP all-time closing high
at 44.51
VIX at lowest level of
past 3 months
IWM forms bullish
engulfing pattern
IWM intermediate term
support area of 107 – 109 continues to attract buyers
Sector breadth continues to
strengthen with…
XLB closes within 20
cents of all-time closing high
XLI closes within 14
cents of all-time closing high
XLK closes within 47
cents of all-time closing high
It seems many are concerned with the difference between the weaker IWM
-3.35% YTD and the SPY +3.21% YTD and are suggesting that this single piece
of market data should create fear, concern and worry in a trader’s mind. If this single piece of data is
worrisome, why is the VIX at its lowest level in over three months?
Chart Signals’ view is those that
are concerned over this single piece of data are falling into the “ignore
the weight of the evidence trap” and are choosing to play the “we need
to be fearful because last year we said the market had gone too high and now
that it has had 6% correction in January and consolidated in a healthy trading range
for two months and the IWM has had a 9.97% correction since March 4, something is
wrong that the market hasn’t gone higher yet” game.
Yes, we know that is a long name for
a game that would never make it on the cover of a game box and
hopefully you get the point.
Bottom Line: Don’t confuse correlation with causation, they
are not the same thing.
CMCSA Bull Flag…
(click image to enlarge)
Trade with the trend of
the chart you are trading and continue to move your protective stops. Continue to follow your rules.
Short-term up trend Chart
Targets:
SPY = 187.17, 189.70…
QQQ = 86.90, 87.88…
IWM = 113.84, 115.25…
Support Levels
SPY = 184.96, 183.37,
181.38
QQQ = 85.98, 85.09, 84.16
IWM = 110.12, 108.91,
106.99
Earnings Released:
Monday: AEIS, AIG, PFE, TSN, VECO, YY
Tuesday: ATVI, ALL, ARWR, CBOE, DTV, DISCA, DIS, EA, FEYE, FSLR, GRPN, HSIC, LBTYA, MRO, MOS, TRIP, WFM
Wednesday: CAR, CTSH, CTRP, FWLT, HUM, GMCR, MCP, PRGO, PRU, SCTY, SFUN, TSLA, FOXA, Z
Thursday: APA, DISH, FNMA, FXCM, JAZZ, LMCA, MNST, NVDA, PCLN, REGN, SUNE, UBNT,
Friday: MHR, SSYS
Q1 Earnings Reactions
Positive Reactions – APA,
CTRP, FNMA, MNST, FOXA, GMCR, PRU, SCTY, Z, ATVI, ALL, DTV, EA, HUM, TRIP, WYNN, ESI, MA, TMUS,
TPX, YELP, CTRX, TSO, ANR, GRMN, ENR, LVLT, PBI, TWX, CHRW, CNX, DNB, FISV,
MAR, VRSK, WLP, MGM, MRK, NOK, S, UTHR, BWLD, AAPL, AET, ALXN, ANGI, BA, BHI,
BIDU, BTU, BX, C,COG, CTXS, DAL, DAVE,
DECK, DHI, DO, DV, ETFC, FCX, GE, GILD, GME, HOG, HAL, HAS, HOG, IBKR, INTC, JNJ, KO, LPNT, LRCX, MS,
NXPI, POT, RF, SCHW, SNDK, SPWR, STI, SWK, SWKS, TKR, TRV, UNP, URI, WFC, XRX,
YHOO
Negative Reactions – AEIS, AIG, ARWR, CAR,
CBOE, CTSH, DIS, DISCA, DISH, FEYE, FXCM, GRPN, JAZZ, MCP, MOS, MRO, NVDA, PFE,
PRGO, REGN, SFUN, SUNE, SSYS, TSLA, TSN, UBNT, VECO, WFM, YY, MTW, AKAM, DVA, EXPE, KRFT, LNKD, K,
VIAB, VRTX, CLX, JDSU, WDC, EBAY, ESRX, SEE, PNRA, STX, SWI, TWTR, ADM, BMY,
CHKP, COH, DDD, GT, PCAR, SAVE, SOHU, ACI, AKS, ALTR, AMGN, AMZN, ATI, BAC, BBRY, BIIB, BRCM, CELG, CLF, CREE, F, FAST,
FFIV, GOOG, IBM, JCI, JPM, KLAC, KMB, LLTC, LLY, LVS, LXK, MMM, MU, MXIM, NSC,
NUE, P, PG, QCOM, SIRI, STLD, STT, T, UA, UNH, UPS, V, VMW, VZ, XLNX, YNDX,
ZION, ZNGA,
Reversal in progress – BRCM,
LLTC, NUE, STLD, ZION
Reversal of Initial
Reaction – AKS, ATI, BAC, CELG, F, IBM, KMB, LVS, MMM, MU, PG, SIRI, T, UPS,
YNDX, ANGI, BIDU, NFLX, RF, INTC
The SPY Market Forecast green line is flat at 77.
____________________
Setups
Horizontal Breakout: AAL,
CTRP, FAS, NKE, SPY, SWKS, ZION, SFUN, V, COST, ESRX, GILD, MNST, ROST, TRIP, GMCR,
Diagonal Breakout: ETFC,
GLW, SCHW, SCSS, STI, DDD, FB, NFLX, SBUX,
Bull Flag: ATI, HOG, SPWR,
TLT, Z, AAPL, CELG, CMCSA, GRMN, WYNN,
Potential Bullish Divergence:
IBM, CIEN, P, AMZN,
Gap Up:
Gap Down:
Bear Flag: YELP,
YNDX, ADBE, CTSH, XLNX,
At Support:
C- Pattern: TRIP,
MSFT, MNST, GMCR, FFIV, FB, CMCSA, AKAM,
Moves
New Highs: SNDK,
Gap Up:
Gap Down: SSYS, UBNT,
H Breakout: MU,
Diagonal Breakout:
Breakout Test:
Bull Flag Bounce: KKD,
TPX,
Bounce:
MACD Divergence Bounce:
MSFT,
Bear Flag:
Support Break:
______________________
64 of 100 NDX stocks
closed higher on Friday and two were unchanged.
Leading NDX 100 stocks included: GMCR, DTV, SYMC, CTRX, PCLN, ILMN, NFLX, WYNN,
TSLA, VRTX
Lagging NDX stocks included: MYL, NVDA, WDC, DISCA, NXPI, LINTA, CA, FISV,
AVGO, MXIM
Leading stocks > +2% on Friday
included: SFUN, TSL, CTRP,
KKD, SPWR, JDSU, LNKD, SOHU, QIHU, WLT
Lagging stocks < -2.0% included:
UBNT, XONE, SSYS, SCTY, GOGO
Stocks to Watch on Monday
Holding Above 30 DMA= 35
MAR, INTC,
CHRW, SPLS, EXPD, SIAL, MDLZ, MU, SNDK, CMCSA, GILD, CHTR, AAPL, CTXS, SRCL, VOD,
DTV, CELG, FISV, EQIX, NXPI, AVGO, MAT, VRSK, LMCA, LBTYA,
SBAC, QCOM, ATVI, DLTR, KRFT, COST,
CSCO, FOXA, GMCR,
Moving Above 30 DMA = 9
ALXN, CTRX, DISH, HSIC, ILMN, MNST, ORLY, PAYX, SYMC
Moving Below 30 DMA = 1
TXN
Staying Below 30 DMA
GRMN, BIDU,
SIRI, YHOO, CTSH, EXPE, LINTA, MYL, NVDA, VRTX, WYNN, FB, REGN, TSLA, BRCM, ADSK,
FAST, MSFT, MXIM, VIAB, CHKP, PCAR, ADI, WDC, FFIV, VIP, STX, ISRG, AMAT, KLAC,
LLTC, NTAP, XLNX, BBBY, ROST, ALTR, AMGN, DISCA, SBUX, TSCO, INTU, AKAM, EBAY,
ESRX, WFM, TRIP, ADBE, AMZN, BIIB, CERN, PCLN, NFLX, CA, GOOG
Sixteen Week
Intermediate Term Market Trend: Up
3-Day Short Term Market
Trend: Neutral
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