Tuesday, August 6, 2013

SPX Pulls Back as VIX Bounces on Fed Speak...FOSL Gaps Up...FB, TSLA Cool Off...FSLR, Z, CAR, DIS Lower in After-hours...

All nine sectors moved lower on Tuesday…However XLP, XLY and XLV were the strongest sectors…XLB was the weakest sector.
 
Breadth weakened…decliners led advancers…2.98 to 1 on the NYSE and 2.27 to 1 on the NASDAQ…
 
Tuesday – weakened, decliners led
Monday - mixed
Friday – mixed
Thursday – strengthened, advancers led
Wednesday – strengthened, advancers led
 
 
SPY down .97…volume 87.4 million shares
VIX up .88…at 12.72…
TNX up .02 at 26.42…
TLT up .31 at 105.90...
XLF down .18 at 20.58…volume 25.2 million shares
 
AAPL down 4.20 at 465.25volume 11.9 million shares
FB down .64 at 38.55volume 63.9 million shares
 
Technical Commentary:
 
SPY – 0.57%, QQQ – 0.60%, DIA – 0.60%, IWM – 1.00%.
 
Stocks generally moved lower after two regional Fed presidents spoke on Tuesday indicating the Fed may taper asset purchases in September.  The SPX and SPY shifted neutral, retraced to its horizontal breakout level and found support at its 10 DMA.
 
AAPL, GOOG, CELG, AMGN, REGN, GILD, CMCSA, BIIB, QCOM and FB led the NDX lower while EBAY and FOSL moved higher.
 
Approximately 80% of the S&P 500 companies have reported earnings with 68% exceeding earnings expectations and 55% above revenue forecasts according to Thomson Reuters. 
 
Earnings before the open led to FOSL +19.12, +17.81%, MGM up 36 cents, DISH up 20 cents and ADM up 3 cents moved higher on the day, while LMCA -1.36 and LINTA -1.30 moved lower.
 
After-hours earnings led FSLR, Z, CHRW, CAR and DIS to gap lower and FOXA +1.02 to gap higher.
 
 
Earnings announcements continue as the fifth week of earnings season begins on Monday.  Chart Signals is focusing on stocks with announcements and stocks that have had a positive earnings reactions over the past two weeks.
 
This Week Earnings of Interest
Tuesday – ADM, CAR, CHRW, DIS, DISH, EXPD, FSLR, FOSL, LINTA, LMCA, MGM, Z
Wednesday – AGU, BOFI, GMCR, GRPN, SCTY, SUNE, TSLA, TWX
Thursday – AAP, FWLT, MCP, MNST, NVDA, RAX, SGMS, SSYS, TMUS,
Friday – JRCC
 
Q2 Earnings Reactions
Positive Reactions – FOSL, DSW, WPO, CNK, KORS, SATS, MGM, EAT, VIAB, YOKU, AIG, CTRX, CHK, COP, LNKD, MELI, MYL, NUS, ZAGG, CMCSA, CTRP, GRMN, HES, MA, MCHP, SODA, YELP, QCOR, FISV, BWLD, MTW, VRTX, WYNN, SWK, SBUX, ALK, AMZN, CELG, CB, CLF, GILD, IP, MXIM, RCL, HSY, UA, UAL, V,   FB, BIDU, TRIP, COG, CTXS, ETFC, FFIV, AKAM, AAPL, EA, VMW, DAL, LCC, EMC, LLY, MCO, AKS, FCX, BTU, UTX, HAS, TXN, GE, HON, SLB, STI, WHR, CHKP, CMG, JCI, KEY, MS, OSTK, SWKS, UNP, UNH, BAC, IBM, SNDK, XLNX, CSX, GS, URI, YHOO, C, WFC
 
Negative Reactions – ANR, CVX, CME, XOM, K, DTV, RVBD, X, COH, DISCA, ESRX, SOHU, DLR, CERN, CRUS, DECK, DNKN, EXPE, KLAC, POT, PCP, SWI, TPX, EQIX, ABC, CROX, ANGI, ATI, CAT, WDC, PNRA, STX, NSC, USNA, TRV, MCD, MO, NFLX, ZION, BHI, AMD, GOOG, ISRG, MSFT, EBAY, INTC, MAT, SCSS, USB, AXP, KO, MOS
 
 
Chart Signals Strategy Guidelines
When the market is trending up Chart Signals looks for support bounce and resistance breakout entries. 
 
When the market is trending down Chart signals looks for resistance pull back and support break entries. 
 
When the market is sideways in consolidation Chart Signals will look for support bounce, diagonal breakouts and pull backs at resistance where price action stays between support and resistance. 
 
Technical setups for short-term option trades be in and out by earnings release.
Over earnings release use earnings option strategies such as straddles, strangles, OTM calls or puts.
After earnings look for bullish setups in positive reaction stocks and bearish setups in negative reaction stocks.
 
 
The Market Forecast Green Line and is in the upper zone. 
 
____________________
 
Setups
H Breakout: FFIV, MU, NTAP, NUAN, WFM, WYNN, CIEN, GMCR, GRPN, JNPR, RAX, SCTY, XONE,
 
Diagonal Breakout: ESRX, INTC, WLT,
 
Bull Flag: AKAM, ATVI, BIDU, CELG, CMCSA, FAST, GILD, GRMN, QCOM, ROST, SBUX, XLNX, ALK, BAC, CMG, DNKN, F, GLW, KKD, LNKD, PWRD, RCL, SPY, STI, YELP, GS, SINA
 
Potential Bullish Divergence:  
 
Gap Up:  FOXA
 
Gap Down: FSLR, Z, CHRW, CAR, DIS
 
Bear Flag:   
 
At Support: AMZN, BRCM, SHLD, STX, C, FSLR, SCSS, UAL,
 
 
Moves
New Highs: PCLN, Z,
 
Gap Up:  FOSL
 
Gap Down: GLD,    
 
H&D Breakout: CTSH,  
 
Breakout Test: 
 
Bounce:  
 
MACD Divergence Bounce:  
 
Bear Flag:  
 
Support Break: FIVE,
 
______________________
 
 
42 of 100 Leading NDX stocks closed higher on Monday and one was unchanged.
 
 
Leading NDX 100 stocks included: FOSL, EXPE, EXPD, EBAY, ADP, NUAN, CTSH, NFLX, PCLN, ESRX, SIAL
 
Lagging NDX stocks included:  GOLD, REGN, SHLD, LINTA, CELG, BIIB, ALXN, VRTX, AMGN, TSLA, FB, GILD
 
Leading stocks > +2% on Wednesday included: FAZ
 
Lagging stocks < -2.0% included: CDE, TSL, ANR, SSYS, UAL, YELP, ANR, JDSU, AKS, MCP, GRPN, ATI, C, CIEN, SOHU, FAS, IBM, GES, ZAGG, CLF, X, GS
 
Stocks to Watch on Wednesday
Holding Above 30 DMA= 74
TSLA, SPLS, CSCO, AMZN, DLTR, ADBE, INTU, BBBY, MCHP, PCLN, SRCL, ALTR, CA,  ORLY, PCAR, ROST, VOD, VIAB, FB, LBTYA, KRFT, LMCA,CMCSA, HSIC, VRSK, ADP, ALXN, CHKP, CTSH, NTAP, SYMC, WFM, NFLX, BMC, CELG, ESRX, FISV, LLTC, XLNX, ADI, ATVI, CHRW, COST, CTXS, EXPD, GILD, LIFE, MYL, PAYX, XRAY, TXN, SIAL, AKAM, AMAT, GRMN, KLAC, YHOO, AMGN, ADSK, BIDU, FFIV, MDLZ, CTRX,  QCOM, AAPL, FAST, SBUX, MXIM, WYNN, CERN, NVDA, BIIB, MNST, FOXA, NUAN, DISCA, DELL, MU
 
Moving Above 30 DMA = 2
EBAY, FOSL
 
Moving Below 30 DMA = 5
GOLD, GOOG, LINTA, SHLD, REGN                    
 
 
Staying Below 30 DMA
WDC, ADSK, DTV, SBAC, EXPE, VRTX, SNDK, EQIX, STX, AVGO, MSFT, BRCM, MAT, ISRG, INTC
 
Four-Week Intermediate Term Market Trend: Up
Short Term Market Trend: Neutral

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Thanks Dave for insights and sharing them with us. Extremely important and helpful.