Friday, August 30, 2013

August is Splunked on Friday as CRM, APA, BIG Move Big Against Backdrop of Weak Market...KKD Squished After Earnings...

Seven of nine sectors moved lower on Friday…XLP, XLU and XLE were the strongest sectors…XLY was the weakest sector. 
 
Breadth weakened…decliners led advancers…2.41 to 1 on the NYSE and 3.17 to 1 on the NASDAQ…
 
Friday – weakened, decliners led
Thursday – strengthened, advancers led
Wednesday – strengthened, advancers led
Tuesday – weakened, decliners led
Monday – weakened, decliners led
 
 
SPY down .52 at 163.65…volume 134.9 million shares
VIX up .20…at 17.01…highest close since June 26
TNX down .02 at 27.49…
TLT down .12 at 105.99...
XLF down .09 at 19.44…volume 26.4 million shares, lowest close since June 26
 
AAPL down 4.48 at 487.21volume 9.7 million shares, bull flag
FB up .01 at 41.29volume 67.6 million shares, at horizontal resistance, near all-time closing high
 
Technical Commentary:
 
DIA -0.27%, SPY -0.34%, QQQ -0.65%, IWM -1.56%.  
 
Small caps IWM led Friday’s move back to this week’s support.  Friday’s selloff may have been a combination of day and position traders getting flat going into the three-day Labor Day weekend and buyers being gone early for the weekend and end of the summer break.  We will look on Tuesday to see if a return of buyers leads to a continuation of the MACD bullish divergence bounce which started on Thursday
 
The NDX -19.55 was led to the downside with -11 points from AAPL, GOOG, MAZN, EBAY, MSFT, BIDU, CELG and GILD.  VOD and TSLA gave less than one point of lift to the NDX.
 
The big technical news was the large number of MACD bullish divergence setups and MACD bounce entries that occurred Thursday took a vacation on Friday heading into the long holiday weekend. 
 
There have been 14 previous bullish divergences since Mar 2009, all of which have led to at least a rally to prior resistance and eight of them have followed through with rallies to new highs.  We are still on the side of the MACD bullish divergence following the pattern established since March of 2009, but will be prepared to trade a break of support according to the rules.
 
Apparently buyers love ANGI +4.15% and KeyBanc took comfort in SCSS +3.00% with upgrade on Friday.
 
Splunk, SPLK +12.86% earnings gap, break through resistance to new all-time closing high.
 
CRM +12.55% earnings gap, break through resistance.
 
BIG +2.25% earnings gap.
 
APA +8.95% after deal with China Petro buying interest in Egypt business.
 
KKD -15.11% was squished after missing estimates on earnings.
 
 
Short-term market posture continues defensive.
Support Levels
ES = 1,647, 1,629, 1,611
SPY = 165.15, 163.35, 161.55
 
Q2 Earnings Reactions
Positive Reactions – SPLK, CRM, GES, DSW, ADSK, ROST, GME, JRCC, RAX, SSYS, TMUS, SGMS, FWLT, MNST, GRPN, TSLA, AGU, BOFI, FOSL, ADM, MGM, WPO, CNK, KORS, SATS, MGM, EAT, VIAB, YOKU, AIG, CTRX, CHK, COP, LNKD, MELI, MYL, NUS, ZAGG, CMCSA, CTRP, GRMN, HES, MA, MCHP, SODA, YELP, QCOR, FISV, BWLD, MTW, VRTX, WYNN, SWK, SBUX, ALK, AMZN, CELG, CB, CLF, GILD, IP, MXIM, RCL, HSY, UA, UAL, V,   FB, BIDU, TRIP, COG, CTXS, ETFC, FFIV, AKAM, AAPL, EA, VMW, DAL, LCC, EMC, LLY, MCO, AKS, FCX, BTU, UTX, HAS, TXN, GE, HON, SLB, STI, WHR, CHKP, CMG, JCI, KEY, MS, OSTK, SWKS, UNP, UNH, BAC, IBM, SNDK, XLNX, CSX, GS, URI, YHOO, C, WFC
 
Negative Reactions – P, SHLD, PWRD, CREE, MCP, GMCR, SCTY, SUNE, Z, CAR, CHRW, FSLR, LINTA, ANR, CVX, CME, XOM, K, DTV, RVBD, X, COH, DISCA, ESRX, SOHU, DLR, CERN, CRUS, DECK, DNKN, EXPE, KLAC, POT, PCP, SWI, TPX, EQIX, ABC, CROX, ANGI, ATI, CAT, WDC, PNRA, STX, NSC, USNA, TRV, MCD, MO, NFLX, ZION, BHI, AMD, GOOG, ISRG, MSFT, EBAY, INTC, MAT, SCSS, USB, AXP, KO, MOS
 
 
Chart Signals Strategy Guidelines
When the market is trending up Chart Signals looks for support bounce and resistance breakout entries. 
 
When the market is trending down Chart signals looks for resistance pull back and support break entries. 
 
When the market is sideways in consolidation Chart Signals will look for support bounce, diagonal breakouts and pull backs at resistance where price action stays between support and resistance. 
 
Technical setups for short-term option trades be in and out by earnings release.
Over earnings release use earnings option strategies such as straddles, strangles, OTM calls or puts.
After earnings look for bullish setups in positive reaction stocks and bearish setups in negative reaction stocks.
 
 
The Market Forecast Green Line is pointed down. 
 
____________________
 
Setups
H Breakout: Z, NFLX, BIDU, CTSH, FB, QCOM, WYNN, LNKD, SSYS, VECO, WLT
 
Diagonal Breakout: TSLA, CMG, GRPN, YOKU, YELP, LVS, MFRM, SOHU, XONE, TBT, CREE, ADBE, ATVI, BRCM, CMCSA, DTV, FFIV, MU, MYL, NTAP, SNDK, SYMC, XLNX, DNKN, GME, SINA, UNG,
 
 
Bull Flag: NTES, ADSK, ROST, ANR, CNX, GLD, SLV, AAPL, ADSK, AMGN, DLTR, MSFT,
 
Potential Bullish Divergence: AMAT, FAST, GOOG, KLAC, MNST, SIRI, SBUX, TXN, YHOO, ATI, BAC, C, CIEN, CLF, FAS, FIVE, FSLR, GLW, GS, JCP, SCTY, SWI, SPY, DIA, QQQ, IWM
 
Gap Up: 
 
Gap Down: 
 
Bear Flag:  TLT
 
At Support: AKAM, FFIV, INTC, AMAT, ESRX,
 
Moves
New Highs: SPLK
 
Gap Up: SPLK, CRM, APA, BIG,
 
Gap Down:  KKD
 
H&D Breakout: ANGI, SHLD
 
Breakout Test:  CELG, GRMN, DDD, ESI, F, TPX
 
 
Bounce: NUAN, SHLD, Z, STX, WDC,
 
MACD Divergence Bounce: ANGI, RAX, WFM,
 
Bear Flag:  
 
Support Break:
 
______________________
 
 
23 of 100 NDX stocks closed higher on Friday and two were unchanged.
 
Leading NDX 100 stocks included: BIDU, VRTX, ATVI, EBAY, CELG, SYMC, GOLD, ALTR, ALXN, SIRI
 
Lagging NDX stocks included:  SHLD, NUAN, WDC, TSLA, VOD, MNST, STX, WFM, ISRG, SIAL
 
Leading stocks > +2% on Friday included: SPLK, CRM, SPLK, ANGI, SCSS
 
Lagging stocks < -2.0% included: KKD, SCTY, NTES, CRUS, XONE, YELP, YOKU, DDD, ZAGG, GMCR, SINA, PWRD, ESI, CREE, FSLR, SWKS, GRPN, FAS, JDSU
 
Stocks to Watch on Tuesday
Holding Above 30 DMA= 24
TSLA, GRMN, PCLN, VIAB, FB, NFLX, BIDU, QCOM, AAPL, WYNN, DELL, GOLD, NVDA, ADSK, MSFT, AMGN, AVGO, BMC, CTSH, GILD, MYL, FOSL, SBAC, VOD
 
Moving Above 30 DMA = 2
NUAN, SHLD
 
Moving Below 30 DMA = 9
AKAM, ALTR, CELG, CTRX, CTXS, FOXA, LBTYA, ROST, SYMC
       
Staying Below 30 DMA
DLTR, CA, CHKP, CHRW, EXPD, FISV, INTU, ISRG, MU, NTAP, ORLY, SBUX, TXN, VRSK, ADP, FFIV, YHOO, MDLZ, ATVI, WDC, PAYX, SPLS, SIAL, HSIC, ALXN, CSCO, EBAY, KLAC, LIFE, LLTC, MCHP, MXIM, SIRI, SRCL, XLNX, XRAY, ADI, LMCA, BBBY, CMCSA, ESRX, PCAR, WFM, DISCA, MNST, FAST, ADBE, COST, AMAT, AMZN, BIIB, CERN, KRFT, GOOG, LINTA, REGN, DTV, EXPE, VRTX, SNDK, EQIX, STX, BRCM, MAT, INTC
 
Thirteen Week Intermediate Term Market Trend: Neutral
5-Day Short Term Market Trend: Down

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