Seven of nine sectors moved lower on Friday…XLP,
XLU and XLE were the strongest sectors…XLY was the weakest sector.
Breadth weakened…decliners
led advancers…2.41 to 1 on the NYSE and 3.17 to 1 on the NASDAQ…
Friday
– weakened, decliners led
Thursday – strengthened,
advancers led
Wednesday –
strengthened, advancers led
Tuesday – weakened,
decliners led
Monday – weakened,
decliners led
SPY
down .52 at 163.65…volume 134.9 million shares
VIX
up .20…at 17.01…highest close since June 26
TNX
down .02 at 27.49…
TLT
down .12 at 105.99...
XLF
down .09 at 19.44…volume 26.4 million shares, lowest close
since June 26
AAPL
down 4.48 at 487.21…volume
9.7 million shares, bull flag
FB
up .01 at 41.29…volume 67.6 million shares, at
horizontal resistance, near all-time closing high
Technical Commentary:
DIA -0.27%, SPY -0.34%, QQQ -0.65%, IWM -1.56%.
Small caps IWM led Friday’s move back to this week’s
support. Friday’s selloff may have been a
combination of day and position
traders getting flat going into the three-day Labor Day weekend and buyers
being gone early for the weekend and end of the summer break. We will look on
Tuesday to see if a return of buyers leads to a continuation of the MACD
bullish divergence bounce which started on Thursday
The NDX -19.55 was led to the downside with -11
points from AAPL, GOOG, MAZN, EBAY, MSFT, BIDU, CELG and GILD. VOD and TSLA gave less than one point of
lift to the NDX.
The big technical news was the
large number of MACD bullish divergence setups and MACD bounce
entries that occurred Thursday took a vacation on Friday heading into the long
holiday weekend.
There have been 14 previous
bullish divergences since Mar 2009, all of which have led to at least a rally
to prior resistance and eight of them have followed through with rallies to new
highs. We are still on the side of the
MACD bullish divergence following the pattern established since March of 2009,
but will be prepared to trade a break of support according to the rules.
Apparently buyers love ANGI +4.15%
and KeyBanc took comfort in SCSS +3.00% with
upgrade on Friday.
Splunk, SPLK +12.86% earnings gap, break through resistance to new
all-time closing high.
CRM +12.55% earnings
gap, break through resistance.
BIG +2.25% earnings
gap.
APA +8.95% after deal
with China Petro buying interest in Egypt business.
KKD -15.11% was
squished after missing estimates on earnings.
Short-term market posture continues defensive.
Support Levels
ES = 1,647, 1,629, 1,611
SPY = 165.15, 163.35, 161.55
Q2 Earnings Reactions
Positive Reactions – SPLK, CRM, GES, DSW, ADSK, ROST, GME, JRCC,
RAX, SSYS, TMUS, SGMS, FWLT, MNST, GRPN, TSLA, AGU, BOFI, FOSL, ADM,
MGM, WPO, CNK, KORS, SATS, MGM, EAT, VIAB, YOKU, AIG, CTRX, CHK, COP,
LNKD, MELI, MYL, NUS, ZAGG, CMCSA, CTRP, GRMN, HES, MA, MCHP, SODA, YELP, QCOR,
FISV, BWLD, MTW, VRTX, WYNN, SWK, SBUX, ALK, AMZN, CELG, CB, CLF, GILD,
IP, MXIM, RCL, HSY, UA, UAL, V, FB, BIDU, TRIP, COG, CTXS, ETFC, FFIV,
AKAM, AAPL, EA, VMW, DAL, LCC, EMC, LLY, MCO, AKS, FCX, BTU, UTX, HAS,
TXN, GE, HON, SLB, STI, WHR, CHKP, CMG, JCI, KEY, MS, OSTK, SWKS,
UNP, UNH, BAC, IBM, SNDK, XLNX, CSX, GS, URI, YHOO, C, WFC
Negative Reactions – P, SHLD, PWRD, CREE, MCP, GMCR, SCTY, SUNE, Z, CAR,
CHRW, FSLR, LINTA, ANR, CVX, CME, XOM, K, DTV, RVBD, X, COH, DISCA,
ESRX, SOHU, DLR, CERN, CRUS, DECK, DNKN, EXPE, KLAC, POT, PCP, SWI, TPX,
EQIX, ABC, CROX, ANGI, ATI, CAT, WDC, PNRA, STX, NSC, USNA, TRV, MCD, MO,
NFLX, ZION, BHI, AMD, GOOG, ISRG, MSFT, EBAY, INTC, MAT, SCSS,
USB, AXP, KO, MOS
Chart Signals Strategy Guidelines
When the market
is trending up Chart Signals looks
for support bounce and resistance breakout entries.
When the market
is trending down Chart signals looks
for resistance pull back and support break entries.
When the market
is sideways in consolidation Chart Signals
will look for support bounce, diagonal breakouts and pull backs
at resistance where price action stays between support and resistance.
Technical setups for
short-term option trades be in and out by earnings release.
Over earnings release use earnings option strategies such as straddles, strangles, OTM calls
or puts.
After earnings look for
bullish setups in positive reaction stocks and bearish setups in negative
reaction stocks.
The Market Forecast Green Line is
pointed down.
____________________
Setups
H Breakout: Z, NFLX, BIDU, CTSH, FB, QCOM, WYNN, LNKD, SSYS,
VECO, WLT
Diagonal Breakout: TSLA, CMG, GRPN, YOKU, YELP, LVS, MFRM, SOHU,
XONE, TBT, CREE, ADBE, ATVI, BRCM, CMCSA, DTV, FFIV, MU, MYL, NTAP, SNDK, SYMC,
XLNX, DNKN, GME, SINA, UNG,
Bull Flag: NTES, ADSK, ROST, ANR, CNX, GLD, SLV, AAPL, ADSK,
AMGN, DLTR, MSFT,
Potential Bullish Divergence: AMAT, FAST, GOOG, KLAC, MNST,
SIRI, SBUX, TXN, YHOO, ATI, BAC, C, CIEN, CLF, FAS, FIVE, FSLR, GLW, GS, JCP,
SCTY, SWI, SPY, DIA, QQQ, IWM
Gap Up:
Gap Down:
Bear Flag: TLT
At Support: AKAM, FFIV, INTC, AMAT, ESRX,
Moves
New Highs: SPLK
Gap Up: SPLK, CRM, APA, BIG,
Gap Down: KKD
H&D Breakout: ANGI, SHLD
Breakout Test: CELG,
GRMN, DDD, ESI, F, TPX
Bounce: NUAN, SHLD, Z, STX, WDC,
MACD Divergence Bounce: ANGI, RAX, WFM,
Bear Flag:
Support Break:
______________________
23 of 100 NDX stocks closed higher on Friday and two were unchanged.
Leading NDX 100 stocks included: BIDU, VRTX, ATVI, EBAY, CELG,
SYMC, GOLD, ALTR, ALXN, SIRI
Lagging NDX stocks included:
SHLD, NUAN, WDC, TSLA, VOD, MNST, STX, WFM, ISRG, SIAL
Leading stocks > +2% on Friday included: SPLK, CRM, SPLK, ANGI, SCSS
Lagging stocks < -2.0% included: KKD,
SCTY, NTES, CRUS, XONE, YELP, YOKU, DDD, ZAGG, GMCR, SINA, PWRD, ESI,
CREE, FSLR, SWKS, GRPN, FAS, JDSU
Stocks to Watch on Tuesday
Holding Above 30 DMA= 24
TSLA, GRMN, PCLN, VIAB, FB, NFLX, BIDU,
QCOM, AAPL, WYNN, DELL, GOLD, NVDA, ADSK, MSFT, AMGN, AVGO, BMC, CTSH, GILD,
MYL, FOSL, SBAC, VOD
Moving Above 30 DMA = 2
NUAN, SHLD
Moving Below 30 DMA = 9
AKAM, ALTR, CELG, CTRX, CTXS, FOXA, LBTYA, ROST, SYMC
Staying Below 30 DMA
DLTR, CA, CHKP, CHRW, EXPD, FISV,
INTU, ISRG, MU, NTAP, ORLY, SBUX, TXN, VRSK, ADP, FFIV, YHOO, MDLZ, ATVI, WDC, PAYX,
SPLS, SIAL, HSIC, ALXN, CSCO, EBAY, KLAC, LIFE, LLTC, MCHP, MXIM, SIRI, SRCL,
XLNX, XRAY, ADI, LMCA, BBBY, CMCSA, ESRX, PCAR, WFM, DISCA, MNST, FAST, ADBE,
COST, AMAT, AMZN, BIIB, CERN, KRFT, GOOG, LINTA, REGN, DTV, EXPE, VRTX, SNDK,
EQIX, STX, BRCM, MAT, INTC
Thirteen Week Intermediate Term Market Trend: Neutral
5-Day Short Term Market Trend: Down
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