Monday, September 10, 2012

SPY, Euro Pull Back as Expected Following Horizontal Breakout...

All nine sectors moved lower on Monday…XLP, XLU and XLY were the strongest sectors.

 
Breadth weakened on Monday as decliners lead advancers 1.50 to 1 on the NYSE and 1.43 to 1 on the NASDAQ… 

Exchange      NYSE    NASDAQ 

Advancers     1,190       1,006
Decliners       1,785       1,448

VIX up 1.90 at 16.28
Euro down 53 pips at 1.2759
TNX up  22 cents at 16.83
TLT up 30 cents at 124.33…
XLF down 13 cents at 15.55…
Gold down 10.60 at 1727
Oil up 1 cent at 96.30

AAPL down 17.70 at 662.74volume 17.4 million shares
FB down 17 cents at 18.81… volume 24.8 million shares…


The Market Forecast green line is in the upper zone.


YTD At a Glance
                       Monday           YTD

SPY                -0.57%          +15.45%

AAPL              -2.60%          +64.34%
EXPE              -2.51%          +83.10%
STX                -2.39%           +85.53%
EBAY             -1.44%           +60.01% 

Technical Commentary: The SPY began a return move and test of Thursday’s breakout forming the first day of a potential a bull flag price pattern as we discussed to watch for in Friday’s post.  The selloff accelerated as the Euro turned lower.

Monday’s price action was an exit signal for some short-term trading rules and the first day of a potential up trending bull flag setup.  The SPY, Euro and many individual stocks traded above last week’s horizontal resistance which now represents a potential support level.

Last week’s breakouts indicate that higher prices are likely on the way.


New Chart Targets
SPY = 144.92 1.61 Fib, 146.05 S&R Measuring
ES = 1,443.50 1.61 Fib, 1,455.00 S&R Measuring
Eur/Usd = 1.3095 1.60 Fib, 1.3345 S&R Measuring.

Short-term support at
143.09, 140.22, 139.80 = SPY
1,424.75, 1,403, 1,395 = ES
2,802.50, 2,750, 2,743 = NQ

Stocks SCHN, X, FCX, CNX, C, BAC, STI, ZION and JDSU which had bounce or breakout signals on Thursday or Friday, either paused, pulled back slightly or had modest moves higher on Monday.

Stocks ANR, BTU, AKS, MCP, WLT, ACI, JRCC, KOL and CLF are setting up potential reversal patterns and gave intra-day entry signals and then closed below their breakout entry signals.


79 of 100 NDX stocks closed lower on Monday… 


Leading NDX 100 stocks included: GMCR, ORLY, FSLR, EXPD, PNRA, COST, GILD, KLAC, KFT

Lagging NDX stocks included: APOL, INTC, FFIV, SPLS, AVGO, GRMN, FLEX, MRVL, AAPL, EXPE

Leading stocks > +2% on Monday included: FAZ

Lagging stocks < -2.0% included: TSLA, SOHU, SWKS, LDK, CRUS, ZAGG, CIEN, HUM, JNPR, BAC, SINA, NTES, FAS, LVS 

Stocks to Watch on Tuesday…

Holding Above 30 DMA = 48 
UCO, TPX, GS, RVBD, SWI, CROX, CRUS, SWKS, CREE, C, FAS, FCX, JDSU, NKE, RCL, STI, TIF, BAC, CDE, CRM, SINA, SOHU, F, ZION, ANF, INFA, ICE, LVS, LNKD, HUM, URE, COH, GLW, CSTR, MOS, UAL, CMG, DE, DHR, ESI, IBM, SWK, TBT, VMW, AKS, ANR, ATI, VECO
 
Moving Above 30 DMA = 0


Moving Below 30 DMA = 5
A, JNPR, SLB, TSLA, V

Staying Below 30 DMA 
DECK, SMH, WDC, CIEN, TSL, X, GES, HLF, CHL, NTES, GRPN, CLF, DLR, ZAGG, FAZ, FB, LDK, MCP


Fourteen Week Intermediate Term Market Trend: Up
Short Term Market Trend: Neutral

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