Thursday, September 6, 2012

SPY Breaks Out on Rising Volume as Buyers Return...

Nine of nine sectors moved higher on Thursday…XLB, XLF and XLI were the strongest sectors. 

Breadth strengthened on Thursday as advancers led decliners 3.84 to 1 on the NYSE and 3.58 to 1 on the NASDAQ… 

Exchange      NYSE    NASDAQ


Advancers     2,390       1,941
Decliners         622          548

Thursday Highlights:
SPY gained 2.86closing at 143.79…volume was 158.2 million shares… Wednesday at 65.4 million shares…

VIX down – 2.14 at 15.60
Euro up 30 pips at 1.2629…
TNX +0.79 at 16.73
TLT down 2.11 at 124.61…
XLF up 36 cents at 15.52…
Gold up 7.90 at 1703.50
Oil -1.24 at 94.78

AAPL up 6.04 at 676.27volume 13.9 million shares
FB up 38 cents at 18.96… volume 46 million shares…

The Market Forecast green line is pointed up in the upper zone.

YTD At a Glance
                        September   YTD

SPY                +2.03%          +15.65%

AAPL              +0.90%          +67.70%
EXPE             +2.46%          +85.28%
STX                -2.55%           +96.89%
EBAY             +3.71%          +61.26% 


Technical Commentary: The SPY moved up $2.86 on 158.2 million shares, its highest volume since August 3It seems to indicate traders are back and they are buying.  The Unemployment and Jobs Report will be out tomorrow, Friday morning. 

The SPY broke out of its current diagonal channel which we correctly identified as a  trend continuation pattern.  Chart Signals expects the current uptrend to continue.  Don’t be surprised if Friday creates a smaller range day consolidating Thursday’s large gains.

The Euro rose and TNX finally jumped higher playing catch up with the falling dollar as bonds dropped.  XLF had its largest gain since early July and formed a large white candle that was both a support bounce and a breakout entry.


New Chart Targets from Thursday’s Breakout
SPY = 144.92 1.61 Fib, 146.05 S&R Measuring
ES = 1,443.50 1.61 Fib, 1,455.00 S&R Measuring

Short-term support at
143.09, 140.22, 139.80 = SPY
1,424.75, 1,403, 1,395 = ES
2,802.50, 2,750, 2,743 = NQ


SETUPS…
Flag:  ICE, MCP, TLT

Channel at Support: DECK, NTES, SDRL


Bounce: SHLD, AKS, SNDK, SWKS, MAKO, KYAK, CELG, FFIV, JDSU, KORS, JNPR, RVBD, XLNX, EA, GLW, EBAY,LVS, DHR, SOHU, BRCM, SMH, INTC, MSFT, QCOM, NFLX, WDC, NVDA, CREE, FCX,DE, GMCR, CRM, VECO, NKE, IBM, ZION, GRMN, V,SLB, CHL,
Wednesday: VHC, MOS, CLF, CRUS, ORCL, RCL, VMW, ANR, NAV
Tuesday: SINA, STI, AAPL
Friday: UCO

Continuation: SINA, SWI, CROX, HLF, YELP, ESI, AH, INFA, F, SREV, GME, CDE, APOL, GLD, ESRX, FAS, AMGN, VRSN,

Support Break: TLT, TSL


Leading NDX 100 stocks included: SHLD, SNDK, MU, APOL, FSLR, GOLD, SYMC, INFY, CTXS, CELG

Lagging NDX stocks included: WCRX, STX, ORLY, FAST, DELL

Leading stocks > +2% on Thursday included: AKS, SWK, SWKS, FAS, ESI, ATI, VMW, COH, JDSU, CRUS, ANR, LNKD, BAC, STI, CMG, TPX, C, ANF, SINA, RCL, JNPR, RVBD, MOS, GLW, LVS, SOHU, F, X, INFA, CREE, GS, SWI, SMH, TBT, FCX, DHR, DECK, WDC, CIEN, DE, CRM, UAL, GES, VECO, TIF, CDE, TSLA, NKE, IBM, FB, A

Lagging stocks < -2.0% included: FAZ, TSL, LDK 

Stocks to Watch on Friday… 
Holding Above 30 DMA = 36 
UCO, TPX, GS, RVBD, SWI, CROX, CRUS, SWKS, CREE, C, FAS, FCX, JDSU, NKE, RCL, STI, TIF, BAC, CDE, CRM, SINA, SOHU, F, ZION, ANF, INFA, ICE, LVS, LNKD, HUM, URE, COH, GLW, CSTR, MOS, UAL 

Moving Above 30 DMA = 13 
CMG, DE, DECK, DHR, ESI, IBM, JNPR, SMH, SWK, TBT, V, VMW, WDC 

Moving Below 30 DMA = 1 
TLT 

Staying Below 30 DMA 
CIEN, SLB, VECO, AKS, ATI, TSL, TSLA, X, ANR, GES, HLF, A, CHL, NTES, GRPN, CLF, DLR, ZAGG, FAZ, FB, LDK, MCP 

Thirteen Week Intermediate Term Market Trend: Up 
Short Term Market Trend: Up

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