BMO – ES +3.00 and NQ +8.25 futures are higher about 25 minutes before the open in pre-market trading and point to a higher open…volume is LIGHT TO moderate for pre-market with more stocks quoting up than down…Financial stocks, XLF is up 8 cents on 176,600 shares in pre-market at this time…
TLT is up 57 cents and the Euro is down 18 pips in overnight trading …
NDX leaders AAPL, AMZN, BIDU, GOOG and QCOM are quoting higher… PCLN is lower…
Dave’s Insight for Monday: slightly lower Euro…slightly stronger bonds…Financials up…setting up a slightly higher open …the SPX broke out of its 11 week trading range between 1,100 to 1,225, watch for a continuation move to the upside…Chart indicates a move to 1,363 in 8 to 10 weeks…Follow your entry signals and take trades according to your rules…Watch XLF, TNX, and breadth as key factors in any SPX move…move stops on profitable trades…Trade Gaps that meet your rules as earnings season continues this week…
SPX
Resistance: 1,249, 1,260, 1,273
Support: 1,230, 1,216, 1,205
Quoting Down – CRM, GMCR, FAZ, SHLD, PCLN, ALTR, TEVA
Quoting Up – CAT, HUM, DE, SINA, CF, FCX, CLF, ATI, SLB, LVS, GS, WLT, TLT, HLF, MCP, HAL, POT, CMG, SLW, X, ANR, IBM, MOS, DOW, UCO, RCL, AAPL, ISRG, JOYG, WYNN, BIDU, NFLX, AMZN, GRMN, GOOG, FSLR, XLNX, MAT, ERTS, YHOO, BRCM
5 comments:
Here's an open question (for Dave and/or or any blog followers): Now that SPY has a confirmed breakout, how likely is a test of the breakout (approx 1225 on SPY)within the next week or so?
Clint.....I was just thinking about the same thing myself. I seem to remember that Dave had mentioned that around 70% of breakouts retest (sorry Dave....I meant TEST)but I can't remember if there was some additional qualifications (like already in a strong uptrend etc). I do remember however that he said it's sometimes the 30% that don't retrace that are real movers, so the solution is to be consistent and take the trade each time you get a signal, and of course get out if it violates the daily low by your filter. Can I get an "AMEN" from any other traders if they share that belief? and anyone else have any other thoughts about that?
Dear Dave,
Your post mentions an SPX target of 1,363 in about 8 to 10 weeks. Please check me: I have a fib on SPX from the high of 9/16 to the low of 10/4. The 200% measuring distance from the SPX breakout on Friday is about 1,366 and about 5 weeks since 9/16. Isn't the rule of thumb 50-100% of the time to reach the price target? Are you using different measuring price levels? Or have I got it all wrong?
Steven R.
Dave has said that breakouts "re-test" the breakout area about 70% of the time. In this case, I see 2 breakouts. The first one was at 1200 on SPY, and did retest 3 times last week(on the daily chart). The second breakout was around 1230 on SPY on Friday. That breakout also retested on the intraday chart. So you could make a case that retest has already occurred (which does not necissarily preclude another retest).
Amen Scott!
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