Wednesday, August 17, 2011

SPX Gives Back Early Gains Forms Spinning Top...Volatility Drops...

Dave will teach this week: 
Stocks Trading Room Thursday 9:30 am EDT
AT Trading Room Thursday 7:00 pm EDT


Tuesday’s bearish harami on the NDX, COMPQ and RUT was barely confirmed on Wednesday with light trading action that better resembles a flat trading range day rather than a down momentum day.  The confirmation was so slight that any trader using any type of price filter would not likely act on the confirmed candle signal.

The VIX fell -1.27 closing at 31.58.  All four volatility indexes VIX, VXD, VXN and RVX closed lower.  This is a confirmation on the SPX and INDU and a non-confirmation on the NDX and RUT.  Going into August expiration Friday, volatility was much lower than the slightly higher close on the SPX and INDU might otherwise suggest.

(click image to enlarge)
  
The SPX rose the first 60 minutes of trading making a new recent high at 1208.47.  The Euro and interest rates TNX turned lower and shortly after the SPX sold off to 1,184 and then rose in close to finish up +1.13 at 1,193.89.  The SPX formed a higher high and higher low on Wednesday.

Interest rates moved lower and financial stocks finished higher.

(click image to enlarge)

NDX spinning top barely confirms bearish harami, below 30 DMA -0.58%
SPX doji, below 30 DMA +0.09%
INDU spinning top, below 30 DMA +0.04%
COMPQ spinning top barely confirms bearish harami, below 30 DMA -0.47%
RUT spinning top barely confirms bearish harami, below 30 DMA -0.10%

Breadth strengthened as advancers led decliners 1.49 to 1 on the NYSE and decliners led advancers 1.14 to 1 on the NASDAQ

Exchange       NYSE        NASDAQ
Advancers      1,817           1,191
Decliners        1,216           1,358

Index         Change    Close    Direction    Confirmation
VIX               -1.27       32.85       Down         Yes – SPX
SOX             -2.31      353.10       Down         Yes – COMPQ

Leading stocks > +2% on Wednesday CAM, CF, MOS

Losing stocks < -2.0% included ANF, DECK, CRM, SINA, TPX, INFA, VMW, CIEN, NETL, CREE, ARUN, SOHU, WDC, GES, TBT, RVBD, FFIV, CROX, VECO, COH, A, ATI, TIF, SNDK, CMG, GMCR

Six of nine sectors moved higher on Wednesday.  Utilities +0.73%,  Consumer Staples XLP +0.67% and Financials XLF +0.62% were the strongest sectors.

Interest rates TNX closed -0.49 at 21.65, bond ETF TLT rose $1.86 and Financials XLF was up 8 cents.  The Euro moved up 18 pips to close at 1.4425 at 5 pm on Wednesday.

SPX
Resistance: 1,200, 1,225, 1,235
Support: 1,173, 1,158, 1,146

The short term 3 day trend is neutral.
The six-month trend is down.
The twelve-month trend is neutral.

Trade with the trend of the chart you are trading.

Bullish entry signal is a bounce off support and a break above the high of the low day or a break out of horizontal resistance.

Bearish entry signal is a break of short term support or a bounce down from the 30 DMA or other resistance.

AAPL -0.04 spinning top, above 30 DMA
AMZN -1.75 – spinning top, below 30 DMA
BIDU +1.04 – hammer, below 30 DMA
GOOG -5.85 – spinning top, below 30 DMA
NFLX -6.80 – large black candle, below 30 DMA
PCLN -5.47 – black candle, below 30 DMA
QCOM -0.06 – doji, below 30 DMA

NDX 100 stocks stronger than the NDX include WFM, ATVI, INFY, LLTC, COST, VMED, VRTX, DTV, AMGN and BIDU.

Stocks weaker than the NDX include DELL, FSLR, DLTR, STX, NTAP, FFIV, URBN, MU, NFLX and SHLD.

Stocks to Watch on Thursday
Holding Above 30 DMA = 11
FAZ, TLT, GMCR, CREE, SLW, CF, CHL, NTES, ZAGG, LDK, NGLS
Moving Above 30 DMA = 0

Moving Below 30 DMA = 2
CROX, MCP
Staying Below 30 DMA
CDE, DECK, LVS, SOHU, HLF, CAM, CMG, IAG, MHS, MOS, SNDK, SWKS, TPX, V, WTW, ESI, ANF, ATW, COH, FCX, GS, POT, SLB, WLT, NKE, SINA, SWN, ACN, AGU, DOW, UCO, UNP, VMW, CLF, ANR, ATI, CAT, CIEN, CRM, CRUS, CY, DLR, FAS, ICE, JNPR, NDAQ, SMH, STI, TIF, URE, WDC, AKS, CSTR, DE, PCX, TBT, X, ZION, KKD, NETL, DHR, FFIV, SWK, UNG, ARUN, RVBD, HUM, ENTR, INFA, A, F, GES, HAS, BAC, TSL, UAL, VECO, NVDA, FWLT, JDSU, GLW, IL

Intermediate Term Market Trend: Down
Short Term Market Trend: Up

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Dave,

I double checked (prophet and TOS), TNX closed at 21.65 on Wednesday. (Unless there is some kind of after hours or futures on the TNX)?

Steven