Monday, February 28, 2011

SPX Closes Higher on Support Bounce Continuation...

The SPX formed a white candle in a support bounce continuation closing up +7.34 at 1,327.22 on Monday. Through Monday the SPX has regained 66% of its 50 point drop last week. The INDU was the strongest index followed by the SPX, RUT and COMPQ was just barely positive on Monday.


SPX white candle, bull flag bounce
INDU white candle, bull flag bounce
COMPQ black spinning top, higher high and higher low
RUT black spinning top, higher high and higher low


Breadth weakened on Monday and remained positive as advancers led decliners 2.09 to 1 on the NYSE and turned negative by two stocks 1.00 to 1 on the NASDAQ …


Exchange     NYSE     NASDAQ
Advancers     2,048       1,338
Decliners           976       1,340


Index     Chg.     Close     Direction     Confirmation
VIX        -0.87       18.35       Down           Yes – SPX
SOX      -5.07     458.62       Down           No – COMPQ


Leading stocks > +2% on Monday included SLW, URE, HUM, AIV, SPG, POT, DOW, GLW


Losing stocks < -2.0% included LDK, TSL, CRM, CSTR, MA, HANS, VMW, V, STI


Positives – INDU, SPX, VIX, Euro, NYSE breadth, AAPL, QCOM, GOOG


Negatives – TNX, AMZN, NFLX, PCLN, NASDAQ breadth weakened, sectors weakened


Did you follow your rules today or did you let the trader's shake you out?

Dave is teaching an AT Workshop in Phoenix on Tuesday...
SPX
Resistance: 1,330, 1,338
Support: 1,321, 1,311, 1,300

The short term 3 day trend is up.
The six-month trend is up.
The twelve-month trend is up.

Trade with the trend of the chart you are trading.

Bullish entry signal is a bounce off support and a break above the high of the low day or a break out of horizontal resistance.

Bearish entry signal is a break of short term support or a bounce down from the 30 DMA or other resistance.

AAPL +5.05 – white candle support bounce continuation in bull flag
AMZN -3.95 – black spinning top gap down bear flag
NFLX -5.77 – black candle at earnings gap support
QCOM +0.56 – white candle at horizontal breakout, new high close
GOOG +3.36 – white spinning top at horizontal support
BIDU +0.57 – black spinning top support bounce continuation

NDX 100 stocks stronger than the NDX include DELL, VRTX, JOYG, AMAT, URBN, GRMN, CMCSA, SPLS, XRAY, PAYX, COST, SIAL, SBUX, AAPL and ESRX.

Stocks weaker than the NDX include FSLR, AKAM, LINTA, NIDH, MRVL, NFLX, MU, CTRP, AMZN, BRCM, ISRG, NVDA, ERTS, VRSN and ALTR.

Stocks to Watch on Tuesday
Holding Above 30 DMA
NDAQ, VLO, CLF, JDSU, CRUS, GLW, NYX, URE, DISH, DLR, HUM, NTES, CAM, SLB, SPG, CAT, NETL, SOHU, ATW, SWK, ICE, JNPR, AMD, DHR, V, ARUN, CIEN, CMG, HSY, DECK, GMCR, GES, RVBD, SLW, ESI, HLF, TLT, ATI, MOS, SMH, SWKS, VECO, AGU, AIV, BA, FAS, HANS, IPI, POT, SWN, TIF
Moving Above 30 DMA = 5
AKS, CF, DOW, HAS, UNP
Moving Below 30 DMA = 9
ACN, CRM, CSTR, LDK, MA, MCP, SNDK, STI, TSL
Staying Below 30 DMA
FAZ, TIE, A, BAC, DE, FDX, FWLT, GS, JEC, LVS, LXK, MHS, NVDA, PCP, PNC, TBT, UAL, X, PCX, SINA, SKX, WLT, ZION, VMW, UNG, WHR, F, LCC, CHL, FCX, CREE, GME, UCO

Intermediate Term Market Trend: Up
Short Term Market Trend: Up

10 comments:

Anonymous said...

Finished February up 4.4% for the month.Much better than January. Keep trading the plan. Is anyone beating the SOX?

Dan V

Judy said...

I followed my rules.
Judy B

Prasanna said...

Dear Dave:

I was shaken out but got back in using my rules! So, I'm firmly long.

Best Regards,

Brian McAllister said...

Followed my rules and continued to scale in during the morning plus took new bull flag bounce trades; tested me late in the trading day, but no stops hit and stuck with the plan! Thanks Dave.

CR said...

Followed my rules :) Enjoy the workshop

Uwe said...

I followed my rules and stayed in my trades. It really does get easier the more often I do it.

Thank you for everything

Uwe

Anonymous said...

I was up 7.4% for the month doing mostly bull put spreads. I write down and grade myself on every entry, A-F. All A's and B's. Just having to write down anything less keeps me out of the trade. ;)

Where do I find a list of Indicies and their % change MTD and YTD? Also, is it calculated from the close of the last day of the previous month,or the open of the first day of the month?
Helen D.

Anonymous said...

Developing my exit rules has been soooo frustrating lately. That and having less & less of your voice online, too, if I can be totally,candid. Until I started listening to Thurs nite's archive this a.m.
OMGosh! Your "detailed" explaination of the SPY's gap-down at the open & explaination on price-action on the 5minute candles, was right-on time!
However, it just ain't the same around here, without you...
Scott L of Nashville

Anonymous said...

Should we be at all concerned that the sell off was on very high volume and this bounce is on very low volume?

Scott Avery said...

My accounts finnished up 7.1 % for the month of FEB. Getting out of most of my positions because of feb exp. anyway was a big help and then I could make a small amount of money playing the short downtrend. The timing of the downtrend was a little easier to do as I said, because it came right after many of us had to close out feb positions for expiry. Downtrends may be the most difficult for an account if they come at right when one has many positions on and must take them off with several losses. any comments anyone?