Friday, November 19, 2010

SPX Finds Buyers at S1 and 30 DMA...

The SPX formed a small white candle continuing the support bounce that started Wednesday. The SPX closed at 1,199, up +3.04 or +0.25%, the COMPQ closed +3.27, the INDU rose +22.32 and the RUT finished +3.52 on Friday.

Breadth weakened from Thursday but was still positive as advancers led decliners 1.43 to 1 on the NYSE and 1.23 to 1 on the NASDAQ…

Exchange     NYSE    NASDAQ
Advancers    1,766       1,476
Decliners      1,232       1,191

Index    Direction    Confirmation
VIX         Down         Yes – SPX
SOX        Up             Yes – COMPQ

Leading stocks on Friday included CRM, WLT, DECK, HANS, LVS, SKX, SNDK, RVBD, CRUS, CAM, X, CLF, TSL, UNG, NFLX, USD, VMW, UAL, GES, CMG, FCX, LDK, FFIV, AMD, ATI, AKAM, ARUN, ICE, HLF, SLB, AKS, HAS, CREE, DOW, FLS, IPI, DHR, CSTR, URE, CAT, MHS, MOS, F, DE, CAKE, GR, MCD, SWN, AIV, NYX, NTRI, A, WHR, TLT, NDAQ, MA, AMX, TIE, NETL, RMBS, PCP

Losing stocks included ATW, SOHU, SINA, CF, GMCR, NTES, UCO, BA, VECO, GME, JEC, TBT, ZION, WFMI, SWK, GS, BAC, ACN, PCLN, FAZ, BYI

Interest rates inched lower, bonds inched higher, the Euro moved higher and the SOX closed higher +1.61%. The VIX fell -0.71 to close at 18.04, its lowest close since April 26.

Seven of nine sectors moved higher on Friday with Energy XLE +0.84% and Materials XLB +0.80% leading all other sectors.

All four indexes closed above their 30 DMA on Friday.  On Friday the indexes continued their support bounce break of the high of the inside day that occurred on Thursday.

Next week is a holiday shorted week with no trading on Thursday and only a half day of trading on Friday.  The day after Thanksgiving is historically the lightest trading day of the year.  Last year was an exception as news of a potential default by Dubai created above normal volume.  Expect trading to get much lighter on Wednesday as traders tend to leave early for the four day weekend.

The SPX has moved higher during the three days before Thanksgiving three of the past four years.  The intermediate term up trend combined with the support bounce starting Wednesday would suggest that moving higher is the greater probability leading up to the Thanksgiving holiday.

 AAPL, AMZN, BIDU, GOOG, NFLX, PCLN and QCOM all successfully moved back above their short term support levels that were penetrated last week.  If these stocks stay above their short term support, that increases the probability of the up trend and support of last week continuing into next week.

Continue to trade with the trend and simultaneously be prepared for any break of support.

SPX
Resistance: 1,200, 1,209, 1,220
Support: 1,190, 1,182, 1,170

Enter bullish trades with a bounce off support and a break above the high of the low day or a break out of horizontal resistance. Thursday was an entry signal for many stocks.

Look for break of short term support for bearish entry signals or a bounce down from the 30 DMA.

The short term 3 day trend is up.
The two-month trend is up.
The twelve-month trend is up.

Continue to focus on and trade setups on the charts of the stocks you watch. Trade with the trend of the chart and follow your rules.

AAPL -1.70 – black spinning top above support
QCOM +0.24– white spinning top
GOOG -5.73 – black candle at gap support and above the high of the low day
BIDU +0.45 – white candle above 30 DMA

NDX 100 stocks stronger than the NDX include MRVL, STX, SPLS, SNDK, NVDA, MYL, BRCM, MXIM, FSLR, RIMM, FISV, WYNN, ILMN, CTAS and DELL.

Stocks weaker than the NDX: ADSK, INTU, ISRG, NTAP, WCRX, YHOO, VRTX, NWSA, CEPH, ERTS, DISH, GOOG, AMAT, EXPE and EBAY.

Stocks to Watch on Monday
Holding Above 30 DMA
HLF, PCLN, LVS, CMG, SINA, AIV, CAKE, CAM, DHR, UNP, WLT, A, ATW, SLB, NDAQ, USD, AMD, DECK, GR, GS, VECO, CSTR, RVBD, TBT, WFMI, NFLX, PNC, BYI, INFA, MHS, NETL, CRM, FFIV, ARUN, SWN, CAT, POT, GME, NTRI, X, CREE, BUCY, ESI, GES, HAS, JEC, MCD, UNG, AIV, AMX, ARUN, CLF, CRM, DE, DHR, DOW, FCX, INFA, MA, MOS, UAL, VMW
Moving Above 30 DMA = 6
AKAM, AMD, HANS, ICE, RMBS, SNDK
Moving Below 30 DMA = 1
CF
Staying Below 30 DMA
FAZ, NTES, ATI, FAS, IPI, LDK, SPG, UCO, ZION, GMCR, AGU, BAC, URE, V, ACN, CHL, FDX, NYX, PCP, STI, SWK, TSL, AKS, BA, HSY, POT, ESI, SKX, WHR, LXK, TIE, FAZ, CRUS, TLT, DLR

Intermediate Term Market Trend: Up – 2 months
Short Term Market Trend: Up

1 comment:

Joe said...

Dave,
Thanks for the consistant and sustained effort you invest in your blog. Updating your blog even while instructing, webinars, live events provides us all with a great investing example. The BGO's keep coming every day thanks to your efforts.
Joe