Monday, November 15, 2010

Late Sell Off Leaves SPX Slightly Lower...CAT to Acquire BUCY...

The SPX closed down -1.45 or -0.12% while forming an inside day, the COMPQ closed -4.39, the INDU rose +9.39 and the RUT finished +0.67 on Monday.  Stocks opened higher and rose but lost ground late in the day as bond prices fell.  CAT, BUCY and JOYG closed higher for the day after CAT and BUCY announced that CAT will acquire BUCY.  
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Breadth strengthened on Monday as decliners led advancers 1.13 to 1 on the NYSE and advancers led decliners 1.19 to 1 on the NASDAQ…

Exchange       NYSE          NASDAQ
Advancers      1,397              1,438
Decliners        1,581              1,206

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Index Direction      Confirmation
VIX       Down               No – SPX
SOX     Down               Yes – COMPQ

Leading stocks on Monday included BUCY, BYI, F, TBT, TSL, ESI, ACN, CRUS, LVS, WHR, ZION, ATI, UNP GES, ICE, CAT, AMX, MHS, VECO, JEC, GS, BA, UNG, CREE, FAS, STI, PNC, DHR, DECK, NTRI, PCP, NDAQ, SWN

Losing stocks included AKAM, ARUN, MOS, FFIV, CSTR, TIE, VMW, NFLX, TLT, URE, CF, POT, FCX, PCLN, LDK, AGU, NTES, CMG, UAL, SOHU, X, USD, NETL, AKS, CRM, HSY, FDX, RVBD, SNDK, HANS, FAZ, AIV, GR, AMD, V, SPG, INFA, GME, DLR, DE, CAM, DOW, A, RMBS, WFMI, IPI

Interest rates rose, the TNX reached a 3 month high, bonds continued down, the Euro moved lower and the SOX closed down -0.79%.  The VIX moved down -0.41 to close at 20.20.

Five of nine sectors moved higher on Monday with Financials XLF +0.44% and Utilities +0.34% leading all sectors.  Utilities, Healthcare and Consumer Staples were three of the five leading sectors, which as defensive sectors can be a sign of market weakness.

All four indexes and many stocks are in a bull flag pattern.  The trend is still up and many stocks are still above support.  AMZN broke horizontal support which is not positive for the COMPQ.  AAPL, GOOG, BIDU, PCLN and NFLX are still above horizontal support.  If these five stocks break support look for the COMPQ to move to break support and move lower. 

Be prepared for a bounce or break of support and trade accordingly.

Charts to Watch
Potential Bearish Setups – AGU, CF, FLS PCP, CTXS, VMW
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Flag Setups – DOW, JOYG, HUM, SINA, X, WYNN, FAS, USD, BYI, GR, IPI, UAL, UNP,  AMD, DECK, SOHU, VECO, MAR, ARUN, AIV, CLF, ILMN, PCLN, RMBS, SNDK, SPG, URE, V,  LVS, ISRG, DE, ZION, AAPL, NFLX, BIDU, CRM, CTXS. FCX, CSTR, SLB, PNC

Breakouts and Setups –CHKP, ORLY
Bearish Entries on Friday – SHLD, TIE, NYX, WHR and LZ

Continue to trade with the trend and simultaneously be prepared for any break of support.

SPX
Resistance: 1,209, 1,220, 1,234
Support: 1,200, 1,190, 1,182

Enter bullish trades with a bounce off support or a break above the high of the low day or a break out of horizontal resistance.

Watch for a break of the low of the high day or break of horizontal support to enter short term bearish trades.
AAPL -0.99 – black candle inside day in flag pullback to 30 DMA
QCOM -0.60 – black candle did not confirm Friday’s hammer in bull flag at gap support
GOOG -7.82 – black candle in bull flag fell to 30 DMA
BIDU -1.84 – black candle pull back to horizontal support

NDX 100 stocks stronger than the NDX include JOYG, WCRX, VRTX, MXIM, ILMN, SBUX, FLEX, BIIB, FLIR, CTAS, CEPH, PAYX, FSLR, EXPD and HSIC.
 
Stocks weaker than the NDX: AMZN, EXPE, SHLD, MRVL, PCLN, RIMM, BIDU, CTXS, GOOG, QCOM, NVDA, FWLT, INTC, ESRX and SNDK.

Stocks to Watch on Tuesday
Holding Above 30 DMA

HLF, PCLN,  MCD, LVS, CMG, FCX,
SINA, AIV, CAKE, CAM, DE, DHR, DOW, UNP, WLT, A, HAS, IPI, ATW, SLB, AMX, NDAQ, UAL, USD, MA, AMD, ATI, DECK, GR, UCO, GS, SPG, VECO, CSTR, RVBD, TBT, WFMI, NFLX, NTES, PNC, BYI, INFA, MHS, NETL, CRM, FFIV, ARUN, SWN, CAT, CLF, POT, JEC, FAS, GME, NTRI, X, SNDK, CREE, RMBS, VMW
Moving Above 30 DMA = 3
BUCY, GES, ZION
Moving Below 30 DMA = 5
AKAM, CF, GMCR, HANS, MOS
Staying Below 30 DMA
AGU, BAC, ICE, URE, V, ACN, CHL, FDX, NYX, PCP, STI, SWK, UNG, TSL, AKS, BA, HSY, POT, ESI, FLS, SKX, WHR, LXK, TIE, FAZ, CRUS, TLT, DLR

Intermediate Term Market Trend: Up – 2 months
Short Term Market Trend: Down

2 comments:

Anonymous said...

don't know how you do it Dave..
Stay on top of so many stocks, teach classes for Investools, travel to trading events, and maybe even manage your own portfolio. You have to be tired sometimes. We appreciate your teaching and your blogs here. We are paying attention and hopefully learning from you.
Dave B

Anonymous said...

Dave, I gotta agree with Dave B. Of the many things, that I depend on you for is your Watch List!! Just the number of stocks you watch (which to this day, I still can't "sift-thru" without your eye), must take a huge amount of time!
So again, Thank you, for all the personal & professional sacrifices you make to be our/my teacher & mentor!!
Scott L of Nashville