Monday, October 4, 2010

SPX Pulls Back to Support...

The SPX fell on Monday to its September 24, S2 level where buyers entered the market creating a five point rally in afternoon trading...
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Exchange     NYSE     NASDAQ
Advancers       825             704
Decliners      2,175          1,949
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Index     Direction     Confirmation
VIX         Up                Yes – SPX
SOX        Down           Yes – COMPQ

Leading stocks on Monday included LVS, FFIV, URE, FAZ, RVBD, NFLX, POT, SPG, ICE, AIV, CHL, AMX, WMT, VOD, TLT, NTES, STI, SKX, DLR, CRM, DE, UCO, MCD, ACN

Losing stocks included TSL, IPI, GMCR, CLF, VMW, CAM, A, ESI, WLT, LXK, USD, ATI, NETL, AKS, X, HANS, CREE, TIE, SWN, ATW, FCX, SNDK, UNG, CRUS, GES, PCLN, FLS, FAS, JEC, BUCY, DHR, AGU, AMD, VECO, GR, DOW, RMBS, PNC, MOS, CSTR

Interest rates fell, bonds rose slightly, the EURO fell, the SOX moved lower, the VIX moved higher as the SPX sold off for the first two and a half hours of trading on Tuesday. The SPX closed 7 points above its 1,130 horizontal support continuing its 11 day range between 1,130 and 1,148.

NFLX rose +1.73 and closed at 156.39. Other leading NASDAQ stocks like AAPL, AKAM, BIDU, FSLR, GOOG, NVDA, PCLN, QCOM and SHLD moved lower on Friday.

LVS, WYNN and FFIV gave flag bounce entry signals on Monday.
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Bull Flag Setups include NVDA, NTAP, MICC, AMZN, NFLX, MOS, VMW, SBUX, AGU, TSL, BUCY, JOYG, GES, UNP, CAT, DE, BIDU, PCLN, SHLD, QCOM, CAM and CRM.
 
SPX
Resistance: 1,148, 1,170
Support: 1,130, 1,115, 1,100

A large number of bull flags are forming. We did six virtual trades this evening, five flag setups, for potential entry on Tuesday including NVDA, NTAP, MICC, AMZN, NFLX and CRM.

Enter bullish trades with a bounce off support and a break above the high of the low day or a break out of horizontal resistance.

Decliners led advancers 2.6 to 1 on the NYSE.

Exit short term trades according to your rules with a close below the low of the high day. Wait on bearish entry signals for a bounce down from resistance or a close below of the low of the high day.

The VIX rose +1.03 to 23.53, and is still below the 25 benchmark level.

The short term 3 day trend is neutral.
The three-month trend is neutral.
The twelve-month trend is up.

Continue to focus on and trade setups on the charts of the stocks you watch. Trade with the trend of the chart and follow your rules.

AAPL    -3.88 – black candle
QCOM  -0.37 – black hammer like candle
GOOG  -3.27 – black spinning top
BIDU   -2.58 –black candle

NDX 100 stocks stronger than the NDX include: WYNN, ERTS, NTAP, RYAAY, ILMN, ATVI, AMZN, BRCM, MICC, NIHD, LBTYA, FISV, BIIB, VRSN and GENZ.

Stocks weaker than the NDX: AKAM, FSLR, APOL, HANS, FLIR, XRAY, BIDU, ADBE, RIMM, SYMC, INFY, STLD, PDCO, INTC and XLNX.

Stocks to Watch on Tuesday
Holding Above 30 DMA
HLF, PCLN, RVBD, AGU, MCD, POT, FFIV, LVS, NFLX, CMG, TSL, FCX, SINA, VOD, AIV, BUCY, CAM, DE, DHR, DOW, PCP, SWK, UNP, URE, WLT, WMT, A, HAS, IPI, JEC, LXK, CAT, ICE, FLS, MHS, ATW, STI, ACN, ATI, AMX, GES, PNC, RMBS, ZION, NDAQ, UAUA, USD, MA, NETL, ESI, GME, HSY, WFMI, CHL, FDX, NTRI, AMD, TIE, V, ATI, BA, CRUS, DECK, DLR, GR, UCO, USO, WHR, AKS, BYI, CLF, BAC, CSTR, GS, NTES, SPG
Moving Above 30 DMA = 1
TLT
Moving Below 30 DMA = 7
CREE, HANS, MOS, NYX, SWN, UPS, VMW
Staying Below 30 DMA
VECO, SNDK, CRM, GMCR, POT, TBT, PNC, X, FAZ, UNG, SKX

Intermediate Term Market Trend: Neutral
Short Term Market Trend: Neutral

3 comments:

Gary said...

Thanks for the intra-day post Dave, very helpful.

Joe said...

Dave, RVBD volume was 12.4M compared to average of 1.8M After hours volume is 7.7M. Is this as bullish as I think it is. I have my target price set at $49.70. Should I move this up?

Joe in florida

Brian McAllister said...

Dave,

Been watching LVS since you discussed it Thursday in the AIT. Took the trade today above 35.54 [on paper of course :)] as an OCO bracket trade. The Nov 37 call was up 20% from my entry price by end of day.

Still waiting to see if the RVBD trade hits T2 this week. Very bullish action today on this stock. [Joe--if you entered the trade with a plan to sell at T2 and it hits T2, I think Dave would say trade your plan. Especially if you bought Oct options.] Good luck!

Thanks Dave,

Brian

Brian