Friday, October 1, 2010

SPX Fails to Break Resistance While Making Higher Low...

The RUT led and the COMPQ trailed on Friday...
(click image to enlarge)
Exchange     NYSE     NASDAQ
Advancers    2,048       1,512
Decliners         931       1,113
(click image to enlarge)
Index     Direction     Confirmation
VIX         Down          Yes – SPX
SOX        Down          No – COMPQ

Leading stocks on Friday included UCO, ACN, FCX, CLF, RVBD, USO, FAS, GS, VOD, TIE, CSTR, NTES, PNC, ICE, AMX, CAM, DOW, BAC, GME, MOS, IPI, CMG, NYX, SWK, AKS, URE, PCP, ATW, A, ATI, FLS, STI, SNDK, LXK, WLT, LVS, TVT, SPG, HLF, CHL, JEC, BUCY, HANS AIV, VMW, GR

Losing stocks included GMCR, NFLX, SKX, PCLN, CRUS, TSL, FAZ, VECO, DE, UNG, CREE, NTRI, V, DLR, POT, WHR, UNP, TLT, GES, AMD, ZION, BYI, NDAQ, CAT, DHR, ESI, FFIV, X, UPS, WMT, WFMI, DECK

The SPX rose 5 points while making a higher low and still closing below 1,148. The SPX is forming a small two week ascending triangle. The RUT barely made another new high close at 679. Sectors were led by Energy XLE, Materials XLB and Financials XLF.

C made a strong move on a large volume increase and suggests a rotation into Financials may be just beginning.

Automakers reported increased sales in September. While one good month does not a trend make the gains were impressive: Chrysler +61%, Ford +46% and GM +11%. This is another small sign that the economy may be starting to gain some strength. If this is the beginning of a trend it should have a positive impact on energy and material stocks which generally do well during the expansion phase of a recovery.

NFLX fell -7.50 and closed at 154.66.  Other leading NASDAQ stocks like BIDU, PCLN, AMZN, QCOM, NVDA, AKAM, BRCM, NTAP, SHLD and AAPL moved lower on Friday.

Other strong stocks moved the indexes slightly higher including leaders like UCO, USO, ATW, AMX, INFY, ACN, RIMM, CTSH, CERN, SWK, A, FLS, FCS, RVBD, CAM and C.

Bull Flag Setups include MOS, VMW, MICC, SBUX, LVS, AGU, TSL, BUCY, JOYG, GES, UNP, CAT, FFIV, DE, WYNN, BIDU, PCLN, SHLD, AMZN, NTAP, QCOM, NVDA, CRM and NFLX.
(click image to enlarge)

Stocks that started to bounce on Friday include: NIHD, VOD, DOW, CMG, HANS

SPX
Resistance: 1,148, 1,170
Support: 1,130, 1,115, 1,100

Enter bullish trades with a bounce off support and a break above the high of the low day or a break out of horizontal resistance.

Advancers led decliners to 2.2 to 1 on the NYSE.

Exit short term trades according to your rules with a close below the low of the high day. Wait on bearish entry signals for a bounce down from resistance or a close below of the low of the high day.

The VIX fell -1.20 to 22.50, and is still below the 25 benchmark level.

The short term 3 day trend is neutral.
The three-month trend is neutral.
The twelve-month trend is up.

Continue to focus on and trade setups on the charts of the stocks you watch. Trade with the trend of the chart and follow your rules.

AAPL   -1.23 – black candle
QCOM  -0.87 – bearish engulfing pattern
GOOG  -0.17 – small bearish engulfing
BIDU    -3.82 – large black candle

NDX 100 stocks stronger than the NDX include: INFY, STLD, LINTA, RIMM, NIHD, INTU, ISRG, CTSH, SRCL, SYMC, SBUX, TEVA, ORCL, NWSA and CERN.

Stocks weaker than the NDX: WCRX, BIDU, SHLD, PCLN, NVDA, NTAP, LLTC, AMZN, QCOM, BRCM, EXPE, AKAM, CMCSA, GRMN and RYAAY.

Stocks to Watch on Monday
Holding Above 30 DMA
HLF, PCLN, RVBD, AGU, MCD, POT, FFIV, LVS, NFLX, VMW, CMG, TSL, FCX, SINA, VOD, AIV, BUCY, CAM, DE, DHR, DOW, PCP, SWK, UNP, UPS, URE, WLT, WMT, A, HAS, IPI, JEC, LXK, CAT, ICE, FLS, MHS, ATW, STI, ACN, ATI, AMX, GES, PNC, RMBS, ZION, NDAQ, UAUA, USD, MA, NETL, ESI, GME, HSY, WFMI, CHL, FDX, NTRI, AMD, TIE, V, ATI, BA, CRUS, DECK, DLR, GR, HANS, UCO, USO, WHR, AKS, BYI, CLF, SWN, CREE
Moving Above 30 DMA = 7
BAC, CSTR, GS, MOS, NTES, NYX, SPG
Moving Below 30 DMA = 2
TLT, VECO
Staying Below 30 DMA
SNDK, CRM, GMCR, POT, TBT, PNC, X, FAZ, UNG, SKX

Intermediate Term Market Trend: Neutral
Short Term Market Trend: Neutral

2 comments:

Donald Meoli said...

Dave, I noticed a while back you inquired about interest in learning to trade futures. I'm wondering if there was any follow up to this, possibly something you've written. I am currently studying futures with Investools, but would love to get some of your perspective on the subject. Thank you.

Brian McAllister said...

Dave,

Like the addition of the currency pairs and calendar. Thanks.

Brian