Friday, March 27, 2009

Futures Point to Lower Open

1:40 pm ET - mired in a trading range the ES returned to early lows around 812 and is now bouncing up again around 815...pretty classic trading range so far today with not convincing breakout of support or resistance from the first hour...there was an attempt to move higher from 11 to 12 but buyers just ran out of buying... SPY, SNDA, OSG, CTSH CRM, WYNN and ISRG are still down by 1 point or more...GME is now up 1 point...JASO is even...X and DLB are down less than 1 point 12:05 pm ET - Have you let me know your read on the ES chart below? Ray asked a very good question in the comments area...I think there is a major BGO in the making...Read my reply to Ray in the Comments... 11:25 am ET - Here's the ES since the open 9:30 ET...Who's in control? Let me know what you think... (click on image to enlarge) 10:56 am ET - ES rallies from 812 to 818...continues to bounce inside of first hour trading range...looking for break and direction outside of trading range...if no break look for price to fall back towards support... 10:22 am ET - ES rallies back above 813...first hour narrow trading range of 812 to 818... 10:15 am ET - SPY, SNDA, OSG, CTSH, X, CRM, ISRG are lower by 1 point or more...GME is up 40 cents...JASO, DLB and WYNN are down less than 1 point 10:10 am ET - ES breaks below 813... On the economic front consumer spending fell -0.2% in February in line with expectations of -0.2%... 9:49 am ET - ES futures since the open have traded in a tight range between 813 - 817...watch for a break of this range for early morning direction 9:34 am ET - Ths SPX opens down and currently is down 12 points...Thursday's low of 814 is key short term support along with the 800 level...Support on the ES is the 813 area...next support area 803 BMO - ES -11 and NQ -17 futures are down in pre-market trading about 20 minutes before the open. This points to a lower open. If the cash markets move lower watch yesterday's low as short term support level. If the market does roll today look for stocks that are relatively weaker for movement to the downside. At the Open on Friday SPY – white spinning top, new high close SNDA – bearish harami OSG – confirm bullish harami, bull flag CTSH – confirm bullish harami, bull flag X – inside day at 50 DMA DLB – confirm hammer, bull flag close above 200 DMA CRM – confirmed hammer, bull flag JASO – large white candle, horizontal breakout GME – bearish engulfing ISRG – at 30 DMA resistance WYNN – doji above 30 DMA

23 comments:

Anonymous said...

Dave,

Thanks for your help! Currently what percentage of you portfolio is invested in stock? Also are you still only taking $500 risk per trade? Finally on the above questions what would have to change for you to increase percentage in stock and risk?

Thanks,
Kevin

mahmood said...

looks to me from the chart the momentum is to the up side with higer highs and higher lows

Anonymous said...

Looks Like the buyers are forcing the price up in a up treading channel.

Don Marsh

Dave Johnson said...

Kevin,

See our Model Porftolio recap on Saturday for details. Approximately 85% in cash, the balance is in stocks. Average risk is less than $500. Trend...Trend...Trend...the intermediate trend has shifted from down to sideways making the environment more favorable to increasing stock positions...a pull back to a higher low would be a great incentive to increase stock position.

Dave

Unknown said...

Looks like buyers are in control.

Ray J

Anonymous said...

I vote for the buyers on the daily chart with higher highs and higher lows.

Unknown said...

Dave,

I don't understand the significance of your daily action list +/- $0.70. From my perspective the stock has alredy made its move and I'm too late to take action.

Your insight would be appreciated.

Thanks for all you do,helping everyone get to the next level of thinking and trading.

Ray J

Dave Johnson said...

Ray,

If the stock has already made a move...what will happen next?

This is about thinking like a master chess player.

If the stock has made a move and it is too late, what is the next move the stocks will make?

I'm thinking there is a BGO in the making...what do you think?

Dave

Unknown said...

Ahhhh....BGO

Profit takers may step in, the beginning of a flag pattern...with a probable retracement of 38%, 50% 62%...

All the things you have been teaching

Thanks Again Dave

Anonymous said...

not fair to answer your question when i had 2 hour to look, but i will give my outlook , being the week end comming seller will be in control , however looking forward the pullback at end of day will it give me the opportunity to buy when i was suppose to buy or allow to pull back more. out look neutral to Bullish, nice added comments about cycles in a trend a few days back.
Robert B

Anonymous said...

Dave,
At 9:34 your post said that next support on the ES were 803. I'd very much like to know how you get that. I tried 5 and 15 min. candles and it seemed to me that next support was 807 or 805. This is why this real time blog is extremely helpful, but I sure can't see why it would be those other figures I mentioned. I'd be very happy if you could tell me how you got that number at that time.
Thanks as always.

John Kevan said...

At this moment in time for the 1 minute charts your using, buyers are in charge and a bull flag is forming.
At resistance (green line).

Dave Johnson said...

Scott,

Remember, Support and Resistance are areas or zones and there are multiple levels. The 805 is the Fib extension, the 803 is a pivot number and 800 is the round number. They are all in the same zone or area. I just selected the middle of the three numbers. It is the area that is important.

Dave

Anonymous said...

At the time of your posting buyers were in control as we see higher highs and higher lows....at this point we have moved back down towards todays and yesterday's lows.

Thanks for your efforts on this blog.

Ron

Anonymous said...

Dave...or anyone
What is the term 'pivot number' in your 9:52am post?

Thanks
Ron

Unknown said...

Ron,

Pivot Point is a study set that can be put on a price chart, like a moving average is study set that can be placed on a price chart.

We'll have to let the experts explain the best way to use this tool.

Ray

Anonymous said...

Dave,
Would you consider it a "evening star" pattern forming (or formed) here on the dailys ? With this, is a drop to 79.50 on the SPY (23% fib retracement) a pretty good target, of course bearing any news ?

Dave Johnson said...

Ken,

At this moment SPY looks like an inside day that is near Thursday's low, if it breaks yesterday's low then it could look different...the ES looks like a bearish harami...both comments on the daily charts.

Dave

Anonymous said...

I know I should know this...what is BGO?

Randy

Anonymous said...

Randy,

BGO = Blinding Glimpse of the Obvious

SC Dave said...

Dave,
For the first time, I did not make it through the Thurs. night family gathering as I was sick. I really enjoy your giving of yourself so much to us. I also enjoy the side chats that go on although I know they can slow things down as you try to teach. However I have learned from the side chats also as others give of themselves too in things they have learned. I've learned about computers, about the TOS platform about different parts of the world. Bri** from North Carolina has emphasized as you have the need to study,Chris*** from Langley BC has a good sense of humor and a hot tub. (I always wanted one of those)John H from Knoxville(likes burnt orange as he's a Tennessee fan)has a great sense of humor and Brenda and I get numerous endorphin rushes from his wit. Yok*** a dedicated long time student. I could go on and on about the people in our family.
I learn something every day and even though I still make lots of errors on entries and exits ,they are getting fewer and fewer. 2009 is truly going to be our best year as traders. I look forward to being able to give more to others and growing as a family. We still chuckle about "whose Leo?" when it was asked in a chat the other night.
God Bless
Dave Lewis

Jim said...

Ray asked about the daily action list +/-0.70. I did find the list on Thursday, but what is it supposed to mean?

SH said...

Jim/Ray,

The +/- .70 is simply those stocks in Dave's watch list that went up or down at least .70 cents. If they didn't go up or down at least .70 cents, they don't get posted. V for example, went up $2.75 on Thursday, therefore it made Dave's +/- $.70 list as seen below. Hope that helps!

Thursday’s Action (=> +$0.70 or -$0.70)
Moving Up: FSLR, STRA, MA, POT, MON, PNRA, PCLN, V, BIDU, MOS, V, SCHN, GRMN, X, ANR, ONXX, LAMR, CLF, INFY, JASO, BRCM, HANS, NEM, IPI, KMT, CF, SOHU, CNX