Friday, March 20, 2009
Break the Low of the High Day
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DJIA - 122.42, -1.65%
SP500 - 15.50, -1.98%
NASDAQ Comp. - 26.21, -1.77%
Russell 2000 - 13.15, -3.18%
Exchange NYSE NASD
Advancing 911 884
Declining 2,735 1.866
Oil $51.06 -$0.55
Gold $956.20 -$2.60
SOX 218.71 -7.90
VIX 45.89 +2.21
The VIX moved up and did confirm the move down in the SPX on Friday.
Strongest Sectors: XLV -0.59%...XLP -1.53%...XLU -1.78%
Weakest Sectors: XLF -6.03%...XLE -4.40%...XLI -3.98%
Sector Watch
Up Trending:
Sideways: XLE, XLY, XLV, XLK, XLB
Down Trending: XLF, XLP, XLI, XLU
We'll be back with Monday Stocks...
Stocks broke the low of the high day and moved lower on options expiration on Friday. Gold, oil and semiconductors all moved lower. The strength of the rally of the past two weeks and the removal of some of the uncertainty regarding financial stocks indicates that big money has enough confidence to be buyers again. After the current profit taking comes to an end, if it is a higher low than the March 6 low, this will suggest that buyers are willing to pay higher prices off support and will be the launch for the next short term move up. We’ll watch for buyers to establish support.
The Financial sector was the weakest sector again on Friday. XLF fell another -6.03%. Watch for a potential higher low in this sector for the next entry opportunity to the upside. Strong financial stocks that gained on Friday included: IVZ, NTRS, C, SCHW, CME and ACO. Stocks that lost less than -6% included: ALL, TRV, MMC, TROW, GS, CB, ICE, MS, SPG, ZION, BK and USB. Stocks losing more that -6% included: PRU, BAC, WFC, KEY, STT, AFL, RF, JPM, MET AXP and PNC.
On Thursday we shared this insight:
Dave’s Insight: Patience is an essential characteristic of trading success. The At the Open list has required patience this week as each looked like a signal might appear. Be ready when a signal does occur.
On Friday the signal occurred. We hope you were ready. It is so easy when a market or stock runs strong to become complacent and think it won't pull back, this time is different. Then the pull back occurs just when you think it won't. The focused trader will always ride the trend for all it has and then be prepared to close the trade and take a new trade on the new signal. We alert you to the potential change so that you are ready when the signal occurs.
At the Open on Friday List Results = 8 out of 11 down more than the SPX -1.98%
SPY – broke the low of the high day…down 2.82%
BA – broke the low of the high day…down 1.93%
WHR – evening star pattern…broke the low of the high day…down 6.64%
BDK – broke the low of the high day…down 2.78%
DE – bearish engulfing…broke the low of the high day…down 3.49%
WYNN – spinning top…did NOT break the low of the high day
ADS – broke the low of the high day…down 1.60%
DECK – bearish engulfing…broke the low of the high day…down -4.50%
VNO – confirmed dark cloud cover…broke the low of the high day…down 12.80%
SPG – confirmed dark cloud cover…broke the low of the high day…down 4.60%
FWLT – bearish engulfing…broke the low of the high day…down 5.83%
Index Commentary
The DJIA confirmed Thursday’s bearish harami-like inside day…broke through the 50% Fib from its 61.8% Fib reached Wed, closed below its 30 DMA…fell to the low of the high day Wednesday
The SPX confirmed Thursday’s dark cloud cover closing below the body and breaking the low of the high day (Thursday)…moved down from its 61.8% Fib Retracement (Feb 9) closing just below its 50% Fib and closed just above its 30 DMA… we alerted readers Thursday evening to “watch for a break below today’s low.”
The Nasdaq confirmed Thursday’s dark cloud cover like candle…closed below its 50 DMA and its 61.8% Fib retracement (Feb 9)…broke the low of the high day…again we alerted readers Thursday evening to “watch for a break below today’s low.”
The RUT confirmed Thursday’s dark cloud cover like candle…closed below its 50% Fib retracement (Feb 8)…and its 30 DMA…broke the low of the high day.
At the Open on Monday
SPY – pulled back to 30 DMA
VNO – 61.8% Fib retracement
ARO – buyers at 20 DMA
MS – pulled back to 50 DMA
ESS – closed below 30 DMA
GS – two day pullback
SNDA – buyers at 20 DMA
OSG – bearish engulfing
CTSH – broke the low of the high day
LEAP – evening star just above 200 DMA
Stocks to Watch on Monday
Leading Stocks:
Holding Above 30 DMA
BIDU, CLB, BKC, NFLX, DLTR, HANS, ICE, ALGT, DLB, JEC, PWR, VPRT, AMZN, MON, AAPL, CTSH, FLS, JOYG, AMX, APEI, AXYS, BAP, CAM, GMCR, GPRO, JCOM, JOSB, MUR, PETS, WMT, ATW, GR, BIIB, SLGN, SWN, SYNA, ACN, SNHY, EBAY, GES, RCI, SNA, ORCL, WRC
Moving Above 30 DMA = 0
Moving Below 30 DMA = 6
DECK, HDB, MOS, PCP, MCD, UYG
Staying Below 30 DMA
BLUD, NTLS, PCLN, PPD, RBN, FAS, MYGN, FSLR, GME, CPLA, ESRX, PSYS, CHL, GILD, MHS, TDG, SPWRA, AMED, GXDX, DV, ESI, VAR, WCG, JW.A, MUR, HLF, STRA, PCR, RIMM, BDX, BYI, NIHD, K, CBST, AFAM, EZPW, WAB
Friday’s Action (=> +$0.70 or -$0.70)
Moving Up: STRA, SINA, MA, NEM
Moving Down: FSLR, POT, GS, MOS, CF, CNX, MON, AGU, ANR, BTU, X, FWLT, PNRA, ONXX, DRYS, AFAM, INFY, NIHD, GRMN, KMT, MS, KRE, CLF, UAUA, KBE, MEE, GLD, ADM
Intermediate Term Market Trend: Neutral – Nasdaq, RUT Down – DJIA, SPX
Short Term Market Trend: Neutral
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