Wednesday, August 12, 2009

SPX Bounces...Fed Holds Rates Steady...

DJIA + 120.16, +1.30% SP500 + 11.46, +1.15% NASDAQ Comp. + 28.99, +1.47% Russell 2000 + 10.05, +1.79% Exchange NYSE NASD Advancing 2,247 1,932 Declining 827 795 Oil $70.16 +$0.71 Gold $950.70 +$4.90 SOX 295.88 +5.14 VIX 25.45 -0.54 The VIX moved down and did confirm the move up in the SPX on Wednesday. The SOX confirmed the Nasdaq's rise. Strongest Sectors: XLF +2.03%...XLK +2.01%...XLI +1.75% Weakest Sectors: XLP -0.04%...XLU +0.48%...XLV +0.54% Eight of nine sectors moved higher on Wednesday. Financials, Technology and Industrials were stronger than the SPX +1.15%. Financial stocks stronger than XLF +2.03%: C, ALL, AFL, KEY, PRU, TRV, MET, GS, CB, STT, JPM, IVZ, BK, CME and ETFs UYG and FAS. Tech stocks stronger than XLK +2.01: ADBE, DELL, AMAT, ORCL, QCOM and SYMC. Sector Watch Up Trending: XLK, XLB, XLY Horizontal Breakout: XLV Sideways: XLE, XLF, XLP, XLI, XLU Down Trending: SPX Key resistance levels: 1,007 = Nov horizontal resistance 1,025 = 950 Chart target 1,044 = October horizontal Key support levels: 996 = July 30 high 980 = last broken resistance now support 962 = 161.8% Fib extension 944 – 956 = old January/June/July resistance The SPX presented the almost perfect for trading a support bounce. After opening almost where the SPX closed on Tuesday the index started moving up in an unusually orderly manner which made support bounce entries easier than normal. The SPX rose until the Fed announced no change in interest rates and then had a 38% Fib retracement pull back to 1,003 and then rallied to a new intra-day high at 1,012 before a final pull back into the close of 1,005.81. Once again closing just below 1,007 horizontal resistance. Many of the setups that we shared with you in Tuesday’s post had very nice support bounces. Flag Setups in Progress: ALTR, LLTC, MRVL, CELG, TEVA, DLB, JOYG, HANS, GILD, USD, UYG, FAS and URE. (click image to enlarge) (click image to enlarge) Key stocks AA, BA, CAT, HPQ, JPM, MSFT, TRV, VZ and UTX were strong on Wednesday. AAPL +2.48 QCOM +97 cents GOOG +4.64 BIDU +2.80 Strong Nasdaq 100 stocks included WYNN, FLIR, LRCX, JOYG, WCRX, MXIM, ERTS, HOLX, NVDA, MRVL, ADBE, DELL, AMAT, VRSN, ADSK, PCAR, CTXS and CTSH. Our real time virtual trades since July 23 in GOOG, SPY, XLB, ZION, BAC, XLF, MA and BDK continue to perform very well. GRMN has slipped negative but not hit its stop. BAC rose 57 cents in after-hours trading on news that hedge fund manager Paulson had become the fourth largest shareholder in BAC over the past quarter. Stocks to Watch on Thursday Leading Stocks Holding Above 30 DMA PWRD, CPLA, ACN, PSYS, MHS, SLGN, AMED, AMX, NFLX, BYI, CTSH, AAPL, DLTR, PETS, USD, BIDU, FUQI, GMCR, JOSB, ATW, BAP, CAM, DLB, EBAY, FAS, GES, JCOM, NIHD, PCLN, SNHY, TDG, TRLG, UYG, WRC, ESI, MOS, MUR, WCG, SNA, X, CBST, WAB, BLUD, CLB, JOYG, PCP, URE, WMT, EZPW, MON, RBN, STRA, AFAM, CHL, FLS, PWR, VAR, SPWRA, BKC, DV, GR, CLB, HANS, GXDX, JEC, GME, HLF, BIIB, VPRT Moving Above 30 DMA = 5 AMZN, DECK, MYGN, ORCL, RCI Moving Below 30 DMA = 0 Staying Below 30 DMA ESRX, RIMM, ALGT, HDB, PPD, SWN, APEI, GILD, K, FSLR, GPRO, SYNA, BDX, JW.A, MCD, FAZ, NTLS, ICE Intermediate Term Market Trend: SPX, DJIA, RUT = Neutral, Nasdaq = Up Short Term Market Trend: Neutral

Futures Flat Before Open...FOMC Announcemnet Today...

BMO – ES +0.25 and NQ +0.25 futures are slightly lower in pre-market pointing to a flat to slightly lower open. The NQ was leading the ES this morning and the futures have flipped from slightly negative to positive over the past 20 minutes...There is a mixture of stocks quoting up or just slightly lower in pre-market this morning…FOMC announcement today at 2:15 pm ET…look for modest trading this morning and then movement up or down from support after the markets digest and create their interpretation of the new information that comes from the Fed …watch the short term support level at the 992 to 996 area…next support 980...I like the flag patterns on STT and SPG in addition to the ones I mentioned last night…BIDU, FLS, LAMR higher in pre-market...Let's trade with the trend of the chart and have a great day... Look at these Charts… (click image to enlarge) At the Open on Wednesday SPY – QQQQ – ADBE – AAPL – EBAY – FUQI – PWRD – BIDU – GMCR – BDK – FAS – BAC – ZION – STT – SPG – URE – JOYG – X – GES – NFLX – FSLR – FLS – FWLT – LAMR – AFAM – SNDA – HANS –

Tuesday, August 11, 2009

Yellow Alert Turns Red on SPX...

DJIA - 96.50, -1.03% SP500 - 12.75, -1.27% NASDAQ Comp. - 22.51, -1.13% Russell 2000 - 9.75, -1.70% Exchange NYSE NASD Advancing 796 746 Declining 2,240 1,966 Oil $69.45 -$1.15 Gold $945.80 +$0.80 SOX 290.74 -4.21 VIX 25.99 +1.00 The VIX moved up and did confirm the move down in the SPX on Tuesday. Strongest Sectors: XLU +0.07%...XLP +0.00%...XLV -0.14% Weakest Sectors: XLF -3.71%...XLE -1.45%...XLK -1.42% Seven of nine sectors moved lower on Tuesday. Utilities, Consumer Staples, Healthcare, Materials and Consumer Discretionary were stronger than the SPX -1.27%. Financial stocks stronger than XLF -3.71%: AOC, GS, IVZ, NTRS, MMC, CB, AFL, TROW, ALL, CME, AXP, SCHW, MS, SPG, TRV, JPM, PRU, ICE and STT. Tech stocks stronger than XLK -1.42: MA, ORCL, TXN, AMT, ADP, GOOG, INTC, HPQ, QCOM, IBM, T, EMC, VZ, AAPL, YHOO and MSFT. Sector Watch Up Trending: XLK, XLB, XLY Horizontal Breakout: XLV Sideways: XLE, XLF, XLP, XLI, XLU Down Trending: SPX Key resistance levels: 1,007 = Nov horizontal resistance 1,025 = 950 Chart target 1,044 = October horizontal Key support levels: 996 = Thursday’s high 980 = last broken resistance now support 962 = 161.8% Fib extension 944 – 956 = old January/June/July resistance The SPX finally broke the low of the high day turning our Yellow Alert for short term traders to red on Tuesday. The SPX moved from the 1,007 resistance area to the 996 support area which is the S1 level of the August 3 large white candle. The SPX fell to a low of 992.40 today which was at last Thursday’s low 992.49. Watch this key support area of 992 to 996. If broken look for the SPX to fall to the next support at 980. (click image to enlarge)

The VIX and SOX confirmed Tuesday’s pullback. Key stocks DD, MMM and WMT. The Financial sector was the weakest sector today on what appears to be profit taking after the strong gains of the past two weeks. The balance of the sectors including Consumer Discretionary, Materials, Industrials and Technology had modest market equivalent pull backs. PWRD, PCLN and GME experienced nice gains on this down day. AAPL -1.89 QCOM -34 cents GOOG -2.67 BIDU -6.05 Strong Nasdaq 100 stocks included LINTA, AMGN, URBN and VRSN. Most NDX 100 stocks are in up or sideways trends. The technically weakest stocks include: PPDI, YHOO, SYMC, GENZ, FSLR, RYAAY, RIMM and AKAM. Our real time virtual trades since July 23 in GOOG, SPY, ZION, BAC and XLF pulled back with the market today. MA, GRMN and BDK held up relatively well with a gain in MA and minor fluctuations in GRMN and BDK. Flag Setups in Progress: CELG, TEVA, LLTC, MRVL, ALTR, INFY, HANS, DLB, JOYG, GILD, USD, UYG, FAS and URE. Stocks to Watch on Wednesday Leading Stocks Holding Above 30 DMA PWRD, CPLA, ACN, PSYS, MHS, SLGN, AMED, AMX, NFLX, BYI, CTSH, AAPL, DLTR, PETS, USD, BIDU, FUQI, GMCR, JOSB, ATW, BAP, CAM, DLB, EBAY, FAS, GES, JCOM, NIHD, PCLN, SNHY, TDG, TRLG, UYG, WRC, ESI, MOS, MUR, WCG, SNA, X, CBST, WAB, BLUD, CLB, JOYG, PCP, URE, WMT, EZPW, MON, RBN, STRA, AFAM, CHL, FLS, PWR, VAR, SPWRA, BKC, DV, GR, CLB, HANS, GXDX, JEC, GME, HLF, BIIB, VPRT Moving Above 30 DMA = 0 Moving Below 30 DMA = 4 AMZN, DECK, ESRX, RIMM Staying Below 30 DMA ALGT, HDB, PPD, RCI, SWN, APEI, GILD, ORCL, K, FSLR, GPRO, SYNA, BDX, JW.A, MCD, FAZ, NTLS, ICE, MYGN Intermediate Term Market Trend: SPX, DJIA, RUT = Neutral, Nasdaq = Up Short Term Market Trend: Down

Futures Point to a Lower Open...

BMO – ES -6 and NQ -11 futures are lower in pre-market pointing to a lower open. Many individual stocks are trading lower or near even this morning…this sell off just started during the last 45 minutes...FOMC meeting starts today with announcement on Wednesday...higher than expected labor costs fell 5.8% and productivity increased 6.4%...it looks like traders may want to let the open shake this morning to see if this is just a slightly lower open or the beginning of a pull back…watch the short term support level at 1,000, Monday’s low and the 996 area Look at these Charts… (click image to enlarge) At the Open on Tuesday SPY – QQQQ – ADBE – AAPL – EBAY – FUQI – PWRD – BIDU – GMCR – BDK – FAS – BAC – ZION – STT – SPG – URE – JOYG – X – GES – NFLX – FSLR – FLS – FWLT – LAMR – AFAM – SNDA – HANS –

Monday, August 10, 2009

SPX Closes at 1,007...

DJIA - 32.12, -0.34% SP500 - 3.38, -0.33% NASDAQ Comp. - 8.01, -0.40% Russell 2000 - 0.53, -0.09% Exchange NYSE NASD Advancing 1,275 1,322 Declining 1,658 1,408 Oil $70.60 -$0.33 Gold $945.40 -$11.90 SOX 294.95 -3.58 VIX 24.99 +0.23 The VIX moved up and did confirm the move down in the SPX on Monday. Strongest Sectors: XLV +0.80%...XLE +0.43%...XLU +0.21% Weakest Sectors: XLB -1.32%...XLI -0.96%...XLY -0.91% Four of nine sectors moved higher on Monday. Healthcare, Energy, Utilities, Consumer Staples were stronger than the SPX -0.33%. Financial stocks stronger than XLF -0.42%: ZION, C, BAC, RF, JPM, ICE, MMC and WFC. Tech stocks stronger than XLK -0.45%: DELL, INTC, AMT, HPQ, AMAT, YHOO, GOOG, T and EBAY. Sector Watch Up Trending: XLK, XLB, XLY Horizontal Breakout: XLV Sideways: XLE, XLF, XLP, XLI, XLU Down Trending: SPX Key resistance levels: 1,025 = 950 Chart target 1,044 = October horizontal Key support levels: 1,007 = Old horizontal resistance 996 = Thursday’s high 980 = last broken resistance now support 962 = 161.8% Fib extension 944 – 956 = old January/June/July resistance Check out At the Open list Tuesday morning as we will have some additions with nice chart set ups. The SPX sold off to 1,000.99 support where buyers stepped in 100 minutes before the close at drove the index back to a close at its November resistance of 1,007.10 and formed a hanging man and bearish harami. Interpret these candles in context of trend and support and resistance. The Nasdaq formed a doji while the DJIA and RUT formed a bearish harami. The RUT was the strongest of the four broad indices. A relatively strong small cap sector is not generally a sign of weakness in the index. Continue to trade with the up trend. The next horizontal resistance is 1,025 on the SPX. Short term traders continue on Yellow Alert as looking for a break below the low of the high day which was Friday. Key stocks BAC, HPQ, INTC, JNJ, JPM, MCD, MRK, WMT and UTX rose. The VIX and SOX confirmed Monday’s pullback. Financials, Consumer Discretionary and Industrials paused on Monday after leading the market over the past two weeks. FAS which gained 32% last week and 47% over the past two weeks was down -1.92%. A very modest pull back following a 47% rise. Regional bank stocks ETF KRE was up 1.22% on Monday. PCLN reported earnings before the open as we alerted you in Monday mornings BMO post, then gapped open up over $11 and finished up +$18.92 for the day. AAPL -79 cents QCOM -23 cents GOOG -49 cents BIDU +$4.84 Strong Nasdaq 100 stocks included LINTA, GENZ, DISH, DELL, ESRX, FWLT, GRMN and MXIM. Our real time virtual trades since July 23 in GOOG, SPY, XLB, ZION, BAC, XLF, MA, GRMN and BDK continue to perform very well. Our stock trades from the Thursday morning, FUQI which was stopped out on Friday did produce the support bounce and a re-entry that we alerted you to watch for in Friday’s post. Stocks to Watch on Tuesday Leading Stocks Holding Above 30 DMA PWRD, CPLA, ACN, PSYS, MHS, SLGN, AMED, AMX, NFLX, BYI, CTSH, AAPL, DLTR, PETS, USD, BIDU, FUQI, GMCR, JOSB, AMZN, ATW, BAP, CAM, DLB, EBAY, FAS, GES, JCOM, NIHD, PCLN, SNHY, TDG, TRLG, UYG, WRC, ESI, MOS, MUR, WCG, SNA, X, CBST, WAB, BLUD, CLB, JOYG, PCP, RIMM, URE, WMT, EZPW, MON, RBN, STRA, AFAM, CHL, FLS, PWR, VAR, SPWRA, BKC, DV, GR, CLB, HANS, GXDX, JEC, GME, HLF, BIIB, DECK, VPRT Moving Above 30 DMA = 1 ESRX Moving Below 30 DMA = 2 ALGT, HDB Staying Below 30 DMA PPD, RCI, SWN, APEI, GILD, ORCL, K, FSLR, GPRO, SYNA, BDX, JW.A, MCD, FAZ, NTLS, ICE, MYGN Intermediate Term Market Trend: SPX, DJIA, RUT = Neutral, Nasdaq = Up Short Term Market Trend: Neutral

Futures Point to a Lower Open...

1:52 pm ET - The SPX is 6 points at 1,004 at the November resistance area of 1,007...PCLN...BIDU...BAC...ZION have pulled back but are still up for the day...the trend continues to be up...trade accordingly...

10:10 am ET - The SPX and other broad indices are down slightly in the first 40 minutes...ES futures are down -1.50 at this moment, slightly above their pre-market level...PCLN is blowing the doors off +16...EXPE up 50 cents...BIDU +6.85 is breaking the high of the low day in a support bounce...BAC is up 25 cents...ZION is up 81 cents...PWRD +1.16...FUQI +1.50...

BMO – ES -4 and NQ -6 futures are lower in pre-market pointing to a lower open. PCLN is up a whopping +$10 in pre-market trading on stronger earnings $1.38 compared with $1.00 in the year ago quarter. EXPE is also trading higher. PWRD is up 8.3% after reporting 72 cents versus estimates of 63 cents. XLY is quoting higher and XLF is down 3 cents… Look at these Charts… (click image to enlarge) At the Open on Monday SPY – QQQQ – ADBE – AAPL – PCLN – EXPE – OWW – EBAY – FUQI – PWRD – BIDU – GMCR – BDK – FAS – BAC – ZION – STT – SPG – URE – JOYG – X – GES – NFLX – FSLR – FLS –

Friday, August 7, 2009

SPX Breaks November 1,007 Horizontal Resistance...

DJIA + 113.81, +1.23% SP500 + 13.40, +1.34% NASDAQ Comp. + 27.09, +1.37% Russell 2000 + 14.78, +2.65% Exchange NYSE NASD Advancing 2,352 1,949 Declining 684 782 Oil $70.93 -$1.01 Gold $957.30 -$3.40 SOX 298.53 -1.31 VIX 24.76 -0.91 The VIX moved down and did confirm the move up in the SPX on Friday. Strongest Sectors: XLY +3.27%...XLF +2.65%...XLI +2.49% Weakest Sectors: XLE -0.12%...XLP +0.41%...XLV +0.44% Eight of nine sectors moved higher on Friday. Consumer Discretionary, Financials and Industrials were stronger than the SPX +1.34%. Financial stocks stronger than XLF +2.65%: ZION, PNC, RF, SPG, SCHW, PRU, AFL CME, AXP, BK, JPM, USB, MET, TROW, KEY, WFC and ETFs UYG and FAS. Tech stocks stronger than XLK +1.02%: HPQ, ADP, ADBE, GLW, IBM, SYMC, GOOG, MA and ORCL. Sector Watch Up Trending: XLK, XLB, XLY Horizontal Breakout: XLV Sideways: XLE, XLF, XLP, XLI, XLU Down Trending: SPX Key resistance levels: 1,025 = 950 Breakout Chart target 1,044 = October horizontal Key support levels: 1,007 = Old horizontal resitance 996 = Thursday’s high 980 = last broken resistance now support 962 = 161.8% Fib extension 944 – 956 = old January/June/July resistance News Flash...before the open…Unemployment 9.4% better than expected 9.7%...Job losses 247,000 better than expectations ranging from 270,000 to 320,000…Futures surge above resistance…Stocks gap higher on the open…then…the pull back. What? Yes, a pull back. After the market allegedly held at 1,007 all week in anticipation of the Unemployment numbers…just in case they were worse than expected…then a brief move to the upside and a pull back. The pull back lasted only 35 minuteslikely big money making one last attempt to shake stock from the hands of weak traders who let go of stocks on any price fluctuation against their long position…and then the buying came in full force driving the SPX to new intra-day high of 1,018.00…literally on the point and then sellers took over for the last 2 ½ hours of the trading day and pushed the SPX to a 1,010.48 close. (click image to enlarge) Everyone should be well aware that many have been expecting a multi-day pull back for three weeks. Big money has not allowed more than a one to three day mostly horizontal pause during the past four weeks. Pauses/pull backs on July 17, July 24 -29 and August 4 – 6 have all held above the S1 level of the prior large white candle on the chart. These three S1 levels are illustrated with green horizontal lines in the SPX chart. Every single pause during this time period Big Money was willing to take stock from the hands of profit takers and short sellers and then when the selling began to slow they stepped up their buying and took prices to the next level. (click image to enlarge) Continue to trade with the up trend. The next horizontal resistance is 1,025 on the SPX. Short term traders continue on Yellow Alert as Friday was a new high close. Key stocks like AXP, BA, CAT, DD GE, MMM, TRV and UTX rose. The VIX confirmed Friday’s rise, but the SOX did not confirm the rise in the Nasdaq. Financials continued to lead the market this week and over the past two weeks. FAS which has been on our At the Open watch list for some time gained 32% this week and 47% over the past two weeks alone. AAPL +$1.60 QCOM +21 cents GOOG +6.74 BIDU +$5.76 Strong Nasdaq 100 stocks included HANS, LINTA, FWLT, ADSK, AKAM, NWSA, SHLD, URBN, PAYX, WYNN, EXPD and JOYG. HANS reported earnings Thursday after the close and the stock gapped up on Friday and rose 17.63%. Our real time virtual trades since July 23 in GOOG, SPY, XLB, ZION, BAC, XLF, MA and BDK continue to perform very well. Our stock trades from the Thursday morning webcast FUQI was stopped out with a -7.7% loss and GRMN rose on Friday. We’ll watch for a support bounce in FUQI and a possible re-entry following a positive earnings reaction in the stock. We'll see you Monday Morning... Stocks to Watch on Monday Leading Stocks Holding Above 30 DMA PWRD, CPLA, ACN, PSYS, MHS, SLGN, AMED, AMX, NFLX, BYI, CTSH, AAPL, DLTR, PETS, USD, BIDU, FUQI, GMCR, JOSB, AMZN, ATW, BAP, CAM, DLB, EBAY, FAS, GES, JCOM, NIHD, PCLN, SNHY, TDG, TRLG, UYG, WRC, ESI, MOS, MUR, WCG, SNA, X, CBST, WAB, BLUD, CLB, JOYG, PCP, RIMM, URE, WMT, EZPW, MON, RBN, STRA, AFAM, CHL, FLS, PWR, VAR, SPWRA, BKC, DV, GR, CLB, HANS, GXDX, JEC, GME, HLF Moving Above 30 DMA = 5 ALGT, BIIB, DECK, HDB, VPRT Moving Below 30 DMA = 0 Staying Below 30 DMA PPD, RCI, SWN, APEI, ESRX, GILD, ORCL, K, FSLR, GPRO, SYNA, BDX, JW.A, MCD, FAZ, NTLS, ICE, MYGN Intermediate Term Market Trend: SPX, DJIA, RUT = Neutral, Nasdaq = Up Short Term Market Trend: Up

Unemployment Drops to 9.4%...Better Than Expected...Futures Rise...

Dave will be in Virtual Coaching Foundation from 11 am to 1 pm MT and on the Weekly Wrap with Tom Sosnoff and Ben Watson at 2:30 pm MT. 11:45am ET - The SPX had a nice support bounce since 10:00 am and broke out of the 1,007 resistance and made a high of 1,015.3. It is currently at 1,011. I hope you took advantage of the support bounce earlier... On Wednesday morning in my AT webcast I shared this chart on BDK and pointed out the Inverse Head and Shoulders reversal pattern with a chart target of 60 with a two to seven month time target. I showed a real time virtual trade purchasing 30 Jan 10 45 strike calls which at 8:39 am MT were filled at 1.65. This morning BDK is in a strong move up with the rest of the market and the Jan 45 are at 2.50. That is a gain of 85 cents or 51% in two days. We'll keep you posted as this intermediate term trade unfolds. (click image to enlarge) 10:00 am ET - The SPX has risen 1,009.52 during the first 30 minutes of trading and is again pulling back...so far the SPX is holding above support and not quite able to break through resistance with a strong break...so far we are seeing a 9 point trading range to the upside on the SPX...we are still in an up trend so consider support areas as entry opportunities... BMO – ES +10 and NQ +20 futures are higher in pre-market trading after the Labor Department said Unemployment fell for the first time in 15 months…falling to 9.4% versus expectation of 9.7% and job losses slowed to 247,000 versus expectations between 270,000 and 320,000. This is obviously much better than expected and look for the SPX to break through 1,007 resistance and move towards the 1,025 resistance level. XLF, XLI, XLK and XLB are showing strength in pre-market trading. Expect financials to continue to lead the market during its next leg up. Our real time virtual trade in BAC (Sep 15 Call at 66 cents) from my live AT Workshop last Thursday closed on yesterday at 2.21 and is up $1.55 or 234%. BAC is up 30 cents in pre-market trading on 12 million+ shares just before the open. Look at these Charts… (click image to enlarge) At the Open on Friday SPY – QQQQ – ADBE – AAPL – PCLN – ISRG – EBAY – FUQI – PWRD – BIDU – GMCR – BDK – FAS – FAZ – BAC – ZION – STT – SPG – URE – JOYG – X – GES – NFLX – FSLR –

Thursday, August 6, 2009

SPX Holds at S1...Nasdaq Moves Lower...

DJIA - 24.71, -0.27% SP500 - 5.64, -0.56% NASDAQ Comp. - 19.89, -1.00% Russell 2000 - 8.37, -1.48% Exchange NYSE NASD Advancing 1,231 842 Declining 1,522 1,845 Oil $71.94 -$0.03 Gold $960.70 -$3.50 SOX 299.84 -4.02 VIX 25.67 +0.77 The VIX moved up and did confirm the move down in the SPX on Thursday. Strongest Sectors: XLI +0.53%...XLU +0.53%...XLY -0.08% Weakest Sectors: XLP -1.02%...XLB -0.83%...XLE -0.82% Two of nine sectors moved higher on Thursday. Industrials, Utilities and Consumer Discretionary were stronger than the SPX -0.56%. Financial stocks stronger than XLF -0.71%: C, SCHW, AXP, KEY, ZION, TRV, BAC, AOC, PNC, MMC, SPG and WFC. Tech stocks stronger than XLK -0.71%: EBAY, ADBE, SYMC, CSCO, YHOO, EMC, GLW, GOOG, TXN, IBM, QCOM and T. Sector Watch Up Trending: XLK, XLB, XLY Horizontal Breakout: XLV Sideways: XLE, XLF, XLP, XLI, XLU Down Trending: SPX Key resistance levels: 1,007 = November horizontal 1,025 = 950 Chart target Key support levels: 996 = Thursday’s high 980 = last broken resistance now support 962 = 161.8% Fib extension 944 – 956 = old January/June/July resistance I Have to Admit I Was Dismayed by This Headline... I saw a headline just a few minutes ago that said Abby Joseph Cohen of GS predicts the SP 500 index may climb to 1,100 by year end. I find that totally humorous since we noted that the SPX chart in early May suggested a move to 1,075 in a time frame of 3 ½ months. Click here to read the May 4 post: http://chartsignals.blogspot.com/2009/05/monday-market-moves-higher.html Now we know chart target time frames are estimates not exact clocks, so maybe the SPX takes four or five months to reach that 1,075 target. It seems the target of 1,075 on the chart in May when the index was at 875 for the first time in months is way more impressive than a forecast of 1,100 by year end when the chart is already at a 1,000. Come on, the SPX just ran 125 points in four weeks and you are trying to impress me with a forecast of a 100 point rise in 4 months and 3 weeks? Somehow that doesn’t seem news worthy at all. It just seems for an analyst to say, after the SPX has already risen 340 points in four months, that the SPX may rise 100 more points in the next four plus months, is a belated forecast lacking any additive insight and perhaps a waste of the airwaves and digital space the comment occupied. Then again, maybe I just don’t get it? Are there any other technical traders out there that think this silly by virtue of its almost after the fact timing, 100 more points by year end forecast is one of the biggest say nothing unimpressive forecasts that you have ever heard? Reminds me of Shakespeare’s “Much Ado About Nothing.” The SPX hit an intra-day high of 1,008.00, then fell to Monday’s S1 area making a low at 992.49 before closing down 5.64 points at 997.08. The daily trading range expanded to 15 points from 12 points on Wednesday. The SPX did not close below the low of the previous high day, Tuesday, so we continue our Yellow Alert for short term traders. Thursday is the new high day. The financial media seems to suggest that everyone is waiting for Friday’s Unemployment Report which is forecasted to come in at 9.7% and non-fram payrolls falling by 275,000 to 300,000. We’ll see the number Friday morning before the open and the trading reaction once it is released. Until then sleep well. Key stocks like AXP, BA, BAC, CAT, DD GE, MMM, TRV and UTX rose. Both the VIX and SOX confirmed today’s pullback. AAPL fell $1.20 formed a spinning top. QCOM fell 21 cents. GOOG fell 78 cents. BIDU fell $5.72. Strong Nasdaq 100 stocks included ATVI, EBAY, LINTA, ROST, SPLS and SHLD. Stocks to Watch on Friday Leading Stocks Holding Above 30 DMA PWRD, CPLA, ACN, PSYS, MHS, SLGN, AMED, AMX, NFLX, BYI, CTSH, AAPL, DLTR, PETS, USD, BIDU, FUQI, GMCR, JOSB, AMZN, ATW, BAP, CAM, DLB, EBAY, FAS, GES, JCOM, NIHD, PCLN, SNHY, TDG, TRLG, UYG, WRC, ESI, MOS, MUR, WCG, SNA, X, CBST, WAB, BLUD, CLB, JOYG, PCP, RIMM, URE, WMT, EZPW, MON, RBN, STRA, AFAM, CHL, FLS, PWR, VAR, SPWRA, BKC, DV, GR, CLB, HANS, GXDX, JEC, GME, HLF Moving Above 30 DMA = 0 Moving Below 30 DMA = 6 BIIB, HDB, PPD, RCI, SWN, VPRT Staying Below 30 DMA ALGT, APEI, ESRX, GILD, ORCL, K, FSLR, GPRO, SYNA, BDX, JW.A, DECK, MCD, FAZ, NTLS, ICE, MYGN Intermediate Term Market Trend: SPX, DJIA, RUT = Neutral, Nasdaq = Up Short Term Market Trend: Neutral

Futures Pointing to a Flat to Higher Open...

BMO – ES +4 and NQ +2 futures are slightly higher in pre-market trading. If the futures hold these levels look for a flat to higher open Thursday morning. Financials 3X FAS is up over 3% on some volume in pre-market trading indicating that Financials may again be a strong sector at the open. Our real time virtual trade in BAC (Sep 15 Call at 66 cents) from my live AT Workshop last Thursday closed on Wednesday at 2.17 which is up $1.51 or 228%. BAC is up 30 cents in pre-market trading on 900,000+ shares about 90 minutes before the open.
FUQI reported earnings after the close on Wednesday and is up about $1.90 onlight volume in pre-market trading. Look at these Charts… (click image to enlarge) At the Open on Thursday SPY – QQQQ – ADBE – AAPL – PCLN – ISRG – EBAY – FUQI – PWRD – BIDU – GMCR – BDK – FAS – FAZ – BAC – ZION – STT – SPG – URE – JOYG – X – GES – NFLX – FSLR –

Wednesday, August 5, 2009

Yellow Alert...SPX Did Not Break High of Low Day...

DJIA - 39.22, -0.42% SP500 - 2.93, -0.29% NASDAQ Comp. - 18.26, -0.91% Russell 2000 - 4.75, -0.83% Exchange NYSE NASD Advancing 731 508 Declining 1,267 1,723 Oil $71.97 +$0.55 Gold $964.20 -$3.30 SOX 303.86 -3.36 VIX 24.90 +0.01 The VIX moved up and did confirm the move down in the SPX on Wednesday. Strongest Sectors: XLF +3.45%...XLB +0.80%...XLP -0.65% Weakest Sectors: XLV -1.42%...XLE -1.00%...XLK -0.90% Two of nine sectors moved higher on Wednesday. Financials and Materials were stronger than the SPX -0.29%. Financial stocks stronger than XLF +3.45%: C, PNC, BAC, AXP, WFC, MMC, USB, JPM and ETFs UYG and FAS. Tech stocks stronger than XLK -0.90%: YHOO, MSFT, MA, AAPL, HPQ, DELL, ADP, GOOG and TXN. Sector Watch Up Trending: XLK, XLB, XLY Horizontal Breakout: XLV Sideways: XLE, XLF, XLP, XLI, XLU Down Trending: SPX Key resistance levels: 1,007 = November horizontal 1,025 = 950 Chart target Key support levels: 996 = Thursday’s high 980 = last broken resistance now support 962 = 161.8% Fib extension944 – 956 = old January/June/July resistance The SPX hit a high of 1,006.64 then fell to Monday’s S1 area at 994.31 and then rose to close above 1,000 for the third straight day at 1,002.72. The SPX traded in a relatively narrow 12 point range between it 1,007 resistance and it 996 area of support. The SPX, DJIA and RUT formed hammer patterns and did not close below the low of the high day. The COMPQ formed a bearish engulfing pattern which closed less than a point below the low of the high day. We continue our Yellow Alert for short term traders. Financial XLF stocks rose +3.45% larger than the gains on Monday or Tuesday. Money Center Banks BAC, WFC and JPM lead financials. Regional banks ZION, RF and ETF KRE trailed. Real estate stocks like SPG and ETF URE also moved higher. Materials XLB +0.80% also moved higher day on Wednesday while other sectors slowed down. Financial Stocks (click image to enlarge) Key stocks like AA, AXP, BAC GE, JPM and TRV rose. Both the VIX and SOX confirmed today’s pullback. AAPL fell 44 cents formed a spinning top. QCOM fell 50 cents. GOOG fell $2.60. BIDU fell $4.44. Strong Nasdaq 100 stocks included GRMN, FWLT, AKAM, CTSH, SHLD and RIMM. Stocks to Watch on Thursday Leading Stocks Holding Above 30 DMA PWRD, CPLA, ACN, PSYS, MHS, SLGN, AMED, PPD, AMX, NFLX, BYI, CTSH, AAPL, DLTR, PETS, USD, BIDU, FUQI, GMCR, JOSB, AMZN, ATW, BAP, CAM, DLB, EBAY, FAS, GES, JCOM, NIHD, ORCL, PCLN, RCI, SNHY, TDG, TRLG, UYG, WRC, ESI, MOS, MUR, WCG, SNA, X, CBST, CHL, SWN, WAB, BLUD, CLB, HDB, JOYG, PCP, RIMM, URE, WMT, EZPW, MON, RBN, STRA, AFAM, CHL, FLS, PWR, VAR, SPWRA, BKC, DV, GR, CLB, HANS, BIIB, GXDX, HDB, JEC, GME, VPRT Moving Above 30 DMA = 1 HLF Moving Below 30 DMA = 1 ALGT, APEI, ESRX, GILD Staying Below 30 DMA K, FSLR, GPRO, SYNA, BDX, JW.A, DECK, MCD, FAZ, NTLS, ICE, MYGN Intermediate Term Market Trend: SPX, DJIA, RUT = Neutral, Nasdaq = Up Short Term Market Trend: Up

Futures Pointing to a Flat Opening...

BMO – ES -0.25 and NQ -1.75 futures are slightly lower in pre-market trading. If the futures hold these levels look for a flat to slightly lower open Wednesday morning. Futures were weaker Tuesday morning and indices still finished up for the day. Financials XLB and Industrials XLI were the strongest sectors on Tuesday and they are showing strength early Wednesday. Continue to Trade with the Trend and short term traders are still on a Yellow Alert. Look at these Charts… (click image to enlarge) At the Open on Wednesday SPY – QQQQ – ADBE – AAPL – PCLN – ISRG – EBAY – FUQI – PWRD – BIDU – GMCR – BDK – FAS – FAZ – BAC – ZION – STT – SPG – URE – JOYG – X – GES – NFLX – FSLR –

Tuesday, August 4, 2009

SPX Inches Higher...

DJIA + 33.63, +0.36% SP500 + 3.02, +0.30% NASDAQ Comp. + 2.70, +0.13% Russell 2000 + 4.96, +0.88% Exchange NYSE NASD Advancing 1,832 1,527 Declining 1,195 1,186 Oil $71.42 -$0.16 Gold $967.50 +$10.90 SOX 307.22 +0.20 VIX 24.89 -0.67 The VIX moved down and did confirm the move up in the SPX on Tuesday. Strongest Sectors: XLF +2.02%...XLI +0.74%...XLY +0.43% Weakest Sectors: XLU -1.47%...XLV -0.36%...XLK -0.30% Five of nine sectors moved higher on Tuesday. Financials, Industrials and Consumer Discretionary were stronger than the SPX +0.30%. Financial stocks stronger than XLF +2.02%: ZION, SPG, USB, STT, RF, MET, ALL, WFC, MMC, TRV, MS, IVZ, AFL C, CB, BAC and ETFs UYG and FAS. Tech stocks stronger than XLK -0.30%: SYMC, MA, YHOO, ADBE, TXN, DELL, GOOG, T, HPQ, EMC, MSFT, INTC and IBM. Sector Watch Up Trending: XLK, XLB, XLY Horizontal Breakout: XLV Sideways: XLE, XLF, XLP, XLI, XLU Down Trending: Sector Charts... (click image to enlarge) SPX Key resistance levels: 1,007 = November horizontal 1,025 = 950 Chart target Key support levels: 996 = Thursday’s high 980 = last broken resistance now support 962 = 161.8% Fib extension 944 – 956 = old January/June/July resistance Yellow Alert Continues The SPX, Nasdaq, DJIA and RUT all barely made a new high close on Tuesday. The SPX hit a new intra-day high at 1,007.12, its horizontal resistance from November last year. The SPX again traded in a relatively narrow 10 point range. Key stocks like CAT, AA, BAC and TRV added to the strength of the broad indices. Both the VIX and SOX confirmed today’s rise. The SPX started on the down side and found buyers near Monday’s S1 level which is the first line of short term support. With the index at horizontal resistance traders must continue to focus on the potential for a bounce down or a break out of resistance. Short term traders are still on Yellow Alert. AAPL fell 88 cents and closed near its daily high. QCOM fell 66 cents. GOOG rose $1.52. BIDU fell $3.01. Strong Nasdaq 100 stocks included CTSH gap up after EPS release, RIMM, AMGN, ISRG, ADBE, CELG, FWLT and WYNN. Our real time virtual trades since July 23 in GOOG, SPY, XLB, ZION, BAC, XLF and MA from our webcasts and live Workshop last week continue to perform very well. Stocks to Watch on Wednesday Leading Stocks Holding Above 30 DMA PWRD, CPLA, ACN, PSYS, MHS, SLGN, AMED, ALGT, PPD, AMX, NFLX, BYI, CTSH, AAPL, DLTR, ESRX, PETS, USD, BIDU, FUQI, GMCR, JOSB, AMZN, ATW, BAP, CAM, DLB, EBAY, FAS, GES, GILD, JCOM, NIHD, ORCL, PCLN, RCI, SNHY, TDG, TRLG, UYG, WRC, ESI, MOS, MUR, WCG, SNA, X, CBST, CHL, SWN, WAB, BLUD, CLB, HDB, JOYG, PCP, RIMM, URE, WMT, EZPW, MON, RBN, STRA, AFAM, CHL, FLS, PWR, VAR, SPWRA, BKC, DV, GR, CLB, HANS, BIIB, GXDX, HDB, JEC, GME, VPRT Moving Above 30 DMA = 1 APEI Moving Below 30 DMA = 1 HLF Staying Below 30 DMA K, FSLR, GPRO, SYNA, BDX, JW.A, DECK, MCD, FAZ, NTLS, ICE, MYGN Intermediate Term Market Trend: SPX, DJIA, RUT = Neutral, Nasdaq = Up Short Term Market Trend: Up

Futures Pointing to a Lower Open...Yellow Alert...

BMO – ES -7 and NQ -11 futures are lower in pre-market trading pointing to a lower open. If the cash markets open lower watch the S1 levels on Monday's candles. If Monday was the high day on a chart, watch Monday's low and look for a break of the low of the high day for capturing profits or a potential entry into a bearish trades. We are definitiely on Yellow Alert on Tuesday...After three weeks of a very strong move up a correction at horizontal resistance resistance area of 1,000 on the SPX should be no surprise...and even a healthy development if one begins today...I'll be watching MA near the open which was on virtual trade example on Monday night and made pull the order and look for a better entry if MA and the ES are still down near the open... Look at these Charts… (click image to enlarge) At the Open on Tuesday SPY – QQQQ – BIDU – ADBE – AAPL – PCLN – NFLX – EBAY – FUQI – PWRD – GMCR – BDK – FAS – FAZ – BAC – ZION – STT – JOYG – X – GES – ISRG – FSLR –

Monday, August 3, 2009

SPX New High Close...

DJIA + 114.95, +1.25% SP500 + 15.15, +1.53% NASDAQ Comp. + 30.11, +1.52% Russell 2000 + 9.07, +1.63% Exchange NYSE NASD Advancing 2,352 1,913 Declining 414 814 Oil $71.58 +$2.13 Gold $956.60 +$2.90 SOX 307.02 +5.28 VIX 25.56 -0.36 The VIX moved down and did confirm the move up in the SPX on Monday. Strongest Sectors: XLB +3.54%...XLF +2.57%...XLF +2.54% Weakest Sectors: XLP +0.12%...XLV +0.61%...XLU +1.00% All of nine sectors moved higher and XLY was unchanged on Firday. Materials, Energy, Financials, Industrials and Consumer Discretionary were stronger than the SPX +1.53%. Financial stocks stronger than XLF +2.57%: KEY, WFC, MET, PRU, TRV, ZION, STT, BAC, PNC, BK, CB, AFL, MS and ETFs UYG and FAS. Tech stocks stronger than XLK +1.37%: EBAY, MA, CSCO, AMT, ADP, SYMC, GOOG, AAPL, IBM, EMC, QCOM, DELL and AMAT. Sector Watch Up Trending: XLK, XLB, XLY Horizontal Breakout: XLV Sideways: XLE, XLF, XLP, XLI, XLU Down Trending: XLB and XLY have moved to Up Trending status from Horizontal Breakout. SPX Key resistance levels: 1,003 = Monday’s high 1,007 = November horizontal 1,025 = 950 Chart target Key support levels: 996 = Thursday’s high 980 = last broken resistance now support 962 = 161.8% Fib extension 944 – 956 = old January/June/July resistance The SPX, DJIA and RUT moved to new intraday and new high close. The Nasdaq Composite and NDX 100 both had a new high close but just missed breaking Thursday’s intraday high. The SPX high of 996 on Thursday to the low 983 low on Friday was 13 points. Today the SPX broke through Thursday’s resistance give a short term price target of 1,009 which is close to the horizontal resistance of 1,007. Both the VIX and SOX confirmed today’s rise. Monday was again a high day. Watch Monday’s S1 level as the first line of short term support. With the index near horizontal resistance traders must be aware of the potential for a bounce down or a break out of resistance. AAPL rose $3.04 and QCOM was up 76 cents. GOOG rose $9.16 and BIDU was up $6.31. Strong Nasdaq 100 stocks included EBAY, ISRG, CSCO, ADP, SYMC, AMZN, CMCSA and BIIB. Stocks to Watch on Tuesday Leading Stocks Holding Above 30 DMA PWRD, CPLA, ACN, PSYS, MHS, SLGN, AMED, ALGT, PPD, AMX, NFLX, BYI, CTSH, AAPL, DLTR, ESRX, PETS, USD, BIDU, FUQI, GMCR, HLF JOSB, AMZN, ATW, BAP, CAM, DLB, EBAY, FAS, GES, GILD, JCOM, NIHD, ORCL, PCLN, RCI, SNHY, TDG, TRLG, UYG, WRC, ESI, MOS, MUR, WCG, SNA, X, CBST, CHL, SWN, WAB, BLUD, CLB, HDB, JOYG, PCP, RIMM, URE, WMT, EZPW, MON, RBN, STRA, AFAM, CHL, FLS, PWR, VAR, SPWRA, BKC, DV, GR, CLB, HANS, BIIB, GXDX, HDB, JEC Moving Above 30 DMA = 2 GME, VPRT Moving Below 30 DMA = 1 K Staying Below 30 DMA FSLR, GPRO, SYNA, BDX, JW.A, DECK, MCD, FAZ, APEI, NTLS, ICE, MYGN Intermediate Term Market Trend: SPX, DJIA, RUT = Neutral, Nasdaq = Up Short Term Market Trend: Up

Futures Pointing to a Higher Open...

Mid-day - New enhancements coming to Chart Signals over the next several days... DJIA + 102.64, +1.12% SP500 + 13.61, +1.38% NASDAQ Comp. + 24.47, +1.24% Exchange NYSE NASD Advancing 2,235 1,771 Declining 464 895 Oil $71.65 +$2.20 Gold SOX 306.68 +4.94 VIX 26.03 +0.11 The VIX moved up and is NOT confirming the move up in the SPX on Monday. Strongest Sectors: XLB +3.26%...XLE +3.02%...XLF +2.15% Weakest Sectors: XLP +0.29%...XLV +0.39%...XLU +0.69% All nine sectors are moving higher on Monday. Materials, Energy, Financials, Industrials and Consumer Discretionary are stronger than the SPX +1.39%. Financial stocks stronger than XLF +2.15%: KEY, ZION, WFC, MET, BAC, PNC, TRV, PRU, JPM, BK, STT, MS, AFL and ETFs UYG and FAS. Tech stocks stronger than XLK +1.16%: EBAY, MA, CSCO, EMC, GOOG, ADP, QCOM, IBM, AAPL, SYMC, DELL and AMT. Sector Watch Up Trending: XLK Horizontal Breakout: XLB, XLY Sideways: XLE, XLV, XLF, XLP, XLI, XLU Down Trending: 1:25 pm ET - Materials XLB, Energy XLE, Financials XLF and Industrials XLI continue to lead the market...the SPX is within a point of its daily high of 1,001.78...read BMO post in regards to resistance at 1,000 to 1,007 and subsequent targets...if the markets holds past 2 pm ET watch for another late day push to the 1,007 area... 11:30 am ET - Materials XLB, Energy XLE and Financials XLF continue to lead the market this morning. BAC, 15.52, (see chart below) is experiencing an Ascending Triangle Breakout this morning with a price target of 19.50 in a 5 week to 3 month time frame. I've also highlighted the two B Entry signals at 13.50 and 14.50. I mentioned the B Entry signal I entered on BAC, using the SEP 15 Call at 66 cents, in Thursday's workshop in the Friday post...the SEP 15 call is now 1.27 or a gain of 61 cents or 92% in two trading days...it certainly makes a difference when you act on great Chart Signals with a solid target...more on this later... Look at this Chart... (click image to enlarge) 9:31 am ET - AAPL is breaking above Friday's high of 165.00...we'll see if this breakout holds in early trading this morning... BMO – ES +9 and NQ +16 futures are higher in pre-market trading pointing to a higher open. SPX Thursday's high resistance is at 996 and horizontal resistance at 1,007. NDX Thursday's high resistance is at 1,632 with the next horizontal resistance at 1,645. AAPL, GOOG, BIDU and QCOM are all higher in pre-market trading. Materials XLB, Financials XLF, Energy XLE and Industrials XLI are the leading sectors in pre-market trading. These were the leading sectors on Friday so this appears to be a continuation move this morning. Pre-market gains this morning are more than these sectors gains on Friday...so it should make for a very interesting trading day... We'll keep you posted on the BAC resistance breakout trade we mentioned in Friday's post from the AT Workshop in Chicago last Thursday... Look at these Charts… (click image to enlarge) At the Open on Monday SPY – QQQQ – BIDU – ADBE – AAPL – PCLN – NFLX – EBAY – FUQI – PWRD – GMCR – BDK – FAS – FAZ – BAC – ZION – STT – JOYG – X – GES – ISRG – FSLR –

Friday, July 31, 2009

Markets End Flat, Oil, Gold Rise...

Good afternoon everyone...as you are probably aware I have been in Chicago teaching an AT Workshop to 420 traders...I arrived home late last night and got to spend some of the day relaxing and trading...on balance it was a good day for Financials and Materials stocks...some tech stocks like AAPL, GOOG and BIDU started strong and ended weak. AAPL did close up 60 cents but had been up nearly $2. On the other hand XLF was up 1% and FAS +1.78%. We did a real time virtual trade in BAC in our workshop yesterday, going long the Sep 15 Call at $0.66 at 10:13:11 am ET. BAC +5.87% on Friday led to a 22 cent rise in the Sep 15 call or 33%. The trade was based on a resistance breakout or what I call Dave's B pattern. The SPX and NDX rose but were unable to hold on to gains...a number of second tier earnings stocks fared poorly after releasing earnings, so the sustainability of the rally was just not there today. I'll be back later with my Friday post and some important comments on what you need to focus on for Monday... DJIA + 17.15, +0.19% SP500 + 0.73, +0.07% NASDAQ Comp. - 5.80, -.0.29% Russell 2000 - 1.09, -0.20% Exchange NYSE NASD Advancing 1,738 1,312 Declining 1,137 1,382 Oil $69.45 +$2.51 Gold $953.70 +$18.80 SOX 301.74 +0.23 VIX 25.92 +0.52 The VIX moved up and did NOT confirm the move up in the SPX on Friday. Strongest Sectors: XLB +1.04%...XLF +1.01%...XLE +0.98% Weakest Sectors: XLU -1.26%...XLV -0.78%...XLK -0.35% Four of nine sectors moved higher and XLY was unchanged on Firday. Materials, Financials, Energy and Industrials were stronger than the SPX +0.07%. Financial stocks stronger than XLF +1.01: BAC, KEY, RF, PNC, TRV, STT, ALL, CB, MET and ETFs UYG and FAS. Tech stocks stronger than XLK -0.35%: ADP, HPQ, AMAT, SYMC, GLW, ADBE, AAPL, CSCO, IBM, MA and ORCL. Sector Watch Up Trending: XLK Horizontal Breakout: XLB, XLY Sideways: XLE, XLV, XLF, XLP, XLI, XLU Down Trending: SPX Key resistance levels: 996 = Thursday’s high 1,007 = November horizontal 1,025 = 950 break out price target Key support levels: 980 = last broken resistance now support 962 = 161.8% Fib extension 944 – 956 = old January/June/July resistance During the past three weeks the markets have been in the midst of earnings season. Strong earnings during the week of July 13 from the likes of GS, INTC, IBM and CTAS propeled the SPX from 875 support to 930 to 950 resistance (see charts below). Early in the week of July 20 reports from CAT, AAPL, MMM, EBAY and ISRG pushed the SPX through 950 resistance to the 980 area. Negative reactions to earnings from MSFT, AMZN, BRCM and NFLX kept the SPX in the 980 area on July 24 and during the first half of the week of July 27. On Thursday July 30 continued strength in AAPL, GOOG, CAT, MMM and IBM pushed the SPX to 996 where profita takers again pushed back the index. Negative reaction to earnings from FSLR, SYNA, AKAM and GPRO kept the indices near breakeven on Friday. When an area of resistance is broken price is likely to rise to the next area of resistance. Once at the new resistance price will either break out and go higher of fail to break resistance and pull back. When the SPX broke the 950 resistance area it gave us the 1,000 to 1,007 as the next horizontal resistance area. As of Thursday the SPX came within 11 points of the price target. On Monday look for the SPX to make another move to the 1,000 to 1,007 resistance area. If it breaks then there are two price target areas 1,025 which is the 950 break out target price and 1,075 which is the 875 resistance break out target price. If the SPX fails to break 1,007 look for a pull back to take place. The 950 area is both horizontal support and the 38.2% Fib retracement. At current VIX levels a 38 to 40 point pull back is a realistic weekly trading range in the SPX. Week of July 13 (click image to enlarge) Week of July 20 (click image to enlarge) Week of July 20 (click image to enlarge) Week of July 27 (click image to enlarge) Stocks to Watch on Monday Leading Stocks Holding Above 30 DMA PWRD, K, CPLA, ACN, PSYS, MHS, SLGN, AMED, ALGT, PPD, AMX, NFLX, BYI, CTSH, AAPL, DLTR, ESRX, PETS, USD, BIDU, FUQI, GMCR, HLF JOSB, AMZN, ATW, BAP, CAM, DLB, EBAY, FAS, GES, GILD, JCOM, NIHD, ORCL, PCLN, RCI, SNHY, TDG, TRLG, UYG, WRC, ESI, MOS, MUR, WCG, SNA, X, CBST, CHL, SWN, WAB, BLUD, CLB, HDB, JOYG, PCP, RIMM, URE, WMT, EZPW, MON, RBN, STRA, AFAM, CHL, FLS, PWR, VAR, SPWRA, BKC, DV, GR, CLB, HANS Moving Above 30 DMA = 3 BIIB, GXDX, JEC Moving Below 30 DMA = 4 FSLR, GPRO, SYNA, VPRT Staying Below 30 DMA BDX, GME, JW.A, DECK, HDB, MCD, FAZ, APEI, NTLS, ICE, MYGN Intermediate Term Market Trend: Neutral Short Term Market Trend: Up

Futures Pointing to a Slightly Lower Open...

9:31 am ET - AAPL, BIDU and GOOG are up at the open... BMO – ES -2.25 and NQ -4.25 futures are slightly lower in pre-market trading pointing to a flat to lower open. FSLR reported improved earnings after the close yesterday and is gapping down in pre-market trading. AAPL and BIDU are trading slightly lower in pre-market trading. Earnings of Interest Post Earnings WYNN -1.67% pre-market DLB +0.99% pre-market GPRO -12.27% pre-market VPRT -6.35% pre-market DIS -3.62% pre-market FSLR -10.79% pre-market Friday: CVX, DRYS Look at these Charts… (click image to enlarge) At the Open on Friday SPY – QQQQ – BIDU – ADBE – AAPL – PCLN – NFLX – EBAY – FUQI – PWRD – GMCR – BDK – FAS – FAZ – BAC – ZION – STT – JOYG – X – GES – ISRG – FSLR –

Thursday, July 30, 2009

SPX Rises Again...

I just returned from teaching a two day AT Workshop in Chicago to 420 traders...I will post in the next several minutes... DJIA + 83.74, +0.92% SP500 + 11.60, +1.19% NASDAQ Comp. + 16.54, +0.84% Russell 2000 + 9.42, +1.72% Exchange NYSE NASD Advancing 2,470 1,850 Declining 557 848 Oil $66.94 +$3.59 Gold $934.90 +$7.70 SOX 301.05 +0.40 VIX 25.40 -0.21 The VIX moved down and did confirm the move up in the SPX on Thursday. Strongest Sectors: XLB +3.04%...XLF +2.30%...XLI +1.62% Weakest Sectors: XLP -0.12%...XLV +0.14%...XLK +0.51% Eight of nine sectors moved higher on Thursday. Materials, Financials, Industrials, Consumer Discretionary, Utilities and Energy were stronger than the SPX +1.19%. Financial stocks stronger than XLF +2.30%: RF, ZION, AFL, KEY, SCHW, MS, IVZ, USB, MET SPG, PRU, BACK ICE, CME, NTRS and ETFs UYG and FAS. Tech stocks stronger than XLK +0.51%: AMT, MA, GOOG, AAPL, T, HPQ, EBAY, CSCO, VZ, GLW, ADBE, ORCL, QCOM and IBM. Sector Watch Up Trending: XLK Horizontal Breakout: XLB, XLY Sideways: XLE, XLV, XLF, XLP, XLI, XLU Down Trending: SPX Key resistance levels: 1,007 = November horizontal Key support levels: 982 = Monday's high 962 = 161.8% Fib extension 944 – 956 = old January/June/July resistancel 930 = horizontal 920 = horizontal end of May high 917 = 50 DMA Earnings of Interest Post Earnings AKAM -19.07% FISV -5.13% GMR -6.94% BDX -8.44% WYNN +13.18% DLB +3.03% after hours GPRO -8.94% after hours VPRT -6.40% after hours DIS -3.13% after hours Friday: CVX, DRYS The SPX and other broad indices broke out of this week’s consolidation pattern. The SPX went to its measuring distance price target of 996 and then profit takers stepped in and the index sold off. I taught this technique in my Workshop yesterday and applied it on the SPX chart at the open when the index was around 984 and calculated a price target of 996. The class was pretty amazed when the SPX went to 996 later in the morning and then sold off. The SPX trading range expanded to 20 points expanding this weeks trading range to 28 points. AAPL rose 2.76 and QCOM was up 27 cents. GOOG rose $9.40 and BIDU was up $7.29. Strong Nasdaq 100 stocks included WYNN, EXPE, XRAY, LINTA, PCAR, ORLY, FSLR, URBN, NIHD SBUX, STLD, GENZ, JOYG and FWLT. Watch Monday’s high of 982 as short term support, Stocks to Watch on Friday Leading Stocks Holding Above 30 DMA PWRD, K, CPLA, ACN, PSYS, MHS, SLGN, AMED, ALGT, PPD, AMX, NFLX, BYI, CTSH, AAPL, DLTR, ESRX, PETS, USD, BIDU, FUQI, GMCR, HLF JOSB, AMZN, ATW, BAP, CAM, DLB, EBAY, FAS, GES, GILD, JCOM, NIHD, ORCL, PCLN, RCI, SNHY, TDG, TRLG, UYG, WRC, ESI, MOS, MUR, WCG, SNA, X, CBST, CHL, SWN, WAB, BLUD, CLB, HDB, JOYG, PCP, RIMM, URE, WMT, EZPW, MON, RBN, STRA, AFAM, CHL, FLS, PWR, VAR, FSLR, SPWRA, BKC, GPRO, SYNA, DV, GR Moving Above 30 DMA = 3 CLB, HANS, VPRT Moving Below 30 DMA = 2 BDX, BIIB Staying Below 30 DMA GME, JW.A, DECK, JEC, HDB, MCD, FAZ, APEI, NTLS, GXDX, ICE, MYGN Intermediate Term Market Trend: Neutral Short Term Market Trend: Up