Friday, August 7, 2009

SPX Breaks November 1,007 Horizontal Resistance...

DJIA + 113.81, +1.23% SP500 + 13.40, +1.34% NASDAQ Comp. + 27.09, +1.37% Russell 2000 + 14.78, +2.65% Exchange NYSE NASD Advancing 2,352 1,949 Declining 684 782 Oil $70.93 -$1.01 Gold $957.30 -$3.40 SOX 298.53 -1.31 VIX 24.76 -0.91 The VIX moved down and did confirm the move up in the SPX on Friday. Strongest Sectors: XLY +3.27%...XLF +2.65%...XLI +2.49% Weakest Sectors: XLE -0.12%...XLP +0.41%...XLV +0.44% Eight of nine sectors moved higher on Friday. Consumer Discretionary, Financials and Industrials were stronger than the SPX +1.34%. Financial stocks stronger than XLF +2.65%: ZION, PNC, RF, SPG, SCHW, PRU, AFL CME, AXP, BK, JPM, USB, MET, TROW, KEY, WFC and ETFs UYG and FAS. Tech stocks stronger than XLK +1.02%: HPQ, ADP, ADBE, GLW, IBM, SYMC, GOOG, MA and ORCL. Sector Watch Up Trending: XLK, XLB, XLY Horizontal Breakout: XLV Sideways: XLE, XLF, XLP, XLI, XLU Down Trending: SPX Key resistance levels: 1,025 = 950 Breakout Chart target 1,044 = October horizontal Key support levels: 1,007 = Old horizontal resitance 996 = Thursday’s high 980 = last broken resistance now support 962 = 161.8% Fib extension 944 – 956 = old January/June/July resistance News Flash...before the open…Unemployment 9.4% better than expected 9.7%...Job losses 247,000 better than expectations ranging from 270,000 to 320,000…Futures surge above resistance…Stocks gap higher on the open…then…the pull back. What? Yes, a pull back. After the market allegedly held at 1,007 all week in anticipation of the Unemployment numbers…just in case they were worse than expected…then a brief move to the upside and a pull back. The pull back lasted only 35 minuteslikely big money making one last attempt to shake stock from the hands of weak traders who let go of stocks on any price fluctuation against their long position…and then the buying came in full force driving the SPX to new intra-day high of 1,018.00…literally on the point and then sellers took over for the last 2 ½ hours of the trading day and pushed the SPX to a 1,010.48 close. (click image to enlarge) Everyone should be well aware that many have been expecting a multi-day pull back for three weeks. Big money has not allowed more than a one to three day mostly horizontal pause during the past four weeks. Pauses/pull backs on July 17, July 24 -29 and August 4 – 6 have all held above the S1 level of the prior large white candle on the chart. These three S1 levels are illustrated with green horizontal lines in the SPX chart. Every single pause during this time period Big Money was willing to take stock from the hands of profit takers and short sellers and then when the selling began to slow they stepped up their buying and took prices to the next level. (click image to enlarge) Continue to trade with the up trend. The next horizontal resistance is 1,025 on the SPX. Short term traders continue on Yellow Alert as Friday was a new high close. Key stocks like AXP, BA, CAT, DD GE, MMM, TRV and UTX rose. The VIX confirmed Friday’s rise, but the SOX did not confirm the rise in the Nasdaq. Financials continued to lead the market this week and over the past two weeks. FAS which has been on our At the Open watch list for some time gained 32% this week and 47% over the past two weeks alone. AAPL +$1.60 QCOM +21 cents GOOG +6.74 BIDU +$5.76 Strong Nasdaq 100 stocks included HANS, LINTA, FWLT, ADSK, AKAM, NWSA, SHLD, URBN, PAYX, WYNN, EXPD and JOYG. HANS reported earnings Thursday after the close and the stock gapped up on Friday and rose 17.63%. Our real time virtual trades since July 23 in GOOG, SPY, XLB, ZION, BAC, XLF, MA and BDK continue to perform very well. Our stock trades from the Thursday morning webcast FUQI was stopped out with a -7.7% loss and GRMN rose on Friday. We’ll watch for a support bounce in FUQI and a possible re-entry following a positive earnings reaction in the stock. We'll see you Monday Morning... Stocks to Watch on Monday Leading Stocks Holding Above 30 DMA PWRD, CPLA, ACN, PSYS, MHS, SLGN, AMED, AMX, NFLX, BYI, CTSH, AAPL, DLTR, PETS, USD, BIDU, FUQI, GMCR, JOSB, AMZN, ATW, BAP, CAM, DLB, EBAY, FAS, GES, JCOM, NIHD, PCLN, SNHY, TDG, TRLG, UYG, WRC, ESI, MOS, MUR, WCG, SNA, X, CBST, WAB, BLUD, CLB, JOYG, PCP, RIMM, URE, WMT, EZPW, MON, RBN, STRA, AFAM, CHL, FLS, PWR, VAR, SPWRA, BKC, DV, GR, CLB, HANS, GXDX, JEC, GME, HLF Moving Above 30 DMA = 5 ALGT, BIIB, DECK, HDB, VPRT Moving Below 30 DMA = 0 Staying Below 30 DMA PPD, RCI, SWN, APEI, ESRX, GILD, ORCL, K, FSLR, GPRO, SYNA, BDX, JW.A, MCD, FAZ, NTLS, ICE, MYGN Intermediate Term Market Trend: SPX, DJIA, RUT = Neutral, Nasdaq = Up Short Term Market Trend: Up

4 comments:

Anonymous said...

Great information --
Thank you, Dave!!

Laney

Anonymous said...

Hi Dave

Thanks for all you do

In one of your Capstones, AT or Foundation course, can you go thru how you find the stocks you pick.
Do you use scans or do you just use your SPDR sector watch list.
Its nice to see pick so many winners like zion.

But in the end, I would like to be a independent person, picking options for myself

Thanks

Anonymous said...

Hi Dave,
Wow...I am sure glad that I was Not one of those traders who let go of my long and intermediate term position(s) on Friday..

Cheers!

Laney

Anonymous said...

P.S.
THANK YOU!!!!