SPX, NDX Close Higher as Rally Resumes, Breadth Strengthens...PPI Better-than-Expected...Materials, Energy, Technology Lead All Sectors Higher...FAST, JPM Strong Start to Earnings...

© 2025

SPX +95.31, 5,363, opened flat after a better-than-expected PPI Report and after trading in a range for two hours trended up to a strong close.  The /ES futures did rise 28 points on the PPI announcement but within 45 minutes fell 84 points.

PPI Report: M/M -0.4% vs 0.2% exp and Y/Y 2.7% vs. 3.4% exp. 

                    Core M/M -0.1% vs 0.3% exp and Y/Y 3.3% vs. 3.6% exp.

Breadth strengthened as exchange and index advancers increased more than 250% from Thursday.  Net change advancing capital in both the NDX and SPX, was about ten times greater than net change declining capital.  The VIX fell to 37.56.

The DJI, 39,593 -2.50%, opened lower and closed lower.  NDX -4.19% retraced 34.8% of Wednesday’s rally.

Having read portions of several news writeups in a live newsfeed (11 major news sources), I was very disappointed in the financial media’s discussions of Thursday’s price action. Many characterized it with words like crushed, resume selloff, sharply lower and other incomplete superlatives that highlight the writer’s inability to either see clearly price action or an unwillingness to describe price action accurately.

Here is Chart Signals write up from our Thursday post…

“Thursday was a pause or retracement day after a major four standard deviation rally yesterday.  The fact that today’s retracement was smaller in size than Wednesday’s rally is positive.  The SPY fell below but rallied to close above Monday’s high is another positive and indicates that institutional buyers were buying this afternoon, which can also be seen in the lower shadow on today’s candle.”

No superlatives, just an accurate description of what you see on a chart.  Price fluctuation is a daily occurrence and because a rally pauses or pulls back is NOT “crushed,” “sharply lower,” or “resume selloff.”  It is fluctuation. 

I’m guessing that every financial writer breathes and that they don’t even think of their own breathing cycle of inhaling and exhaling.  I’m also guessing that if they did think about their breathing cycle that they would not consider their exhaling as evidence of something bad, but rather just part of a healthy and necessary cycle.  We could even call it the “cycle of life.”  The point is that price fluctuations are a healthy part of a continuous stream of price quotations.

Friday was a continuation of the short-term trend that began at 9:44 am ET on Monday.  Friday’s portion of the short-term trend started on Thursday at 12:27 pm ET.  For the fourth day in a row, Friday made a higher low on the daily chart, visible evidence of the current short-term uptrend.  Friday was also a re-breakout of the high of the low day (Monday) which is a positive indication that at least on Friday, institutions are net short-term buyers.  Oh yeah, even though VIX closed lower, 37.56 is very high volatility.  Look for more fluctuation, stay focused on the trend.

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EPS Q1 on six SPX stocks reported: FAST, JPM, BLK, MS, BK, WFC

31 more SPX companies report next week including GS and MTB on Monday.

First day reaction: Q1

Positive: FAST, JPM, BLK, MS, BK, DAL = 6

Neutral: WFC, STZ = 2

Negative: KMX = 1

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TSLA -0.09, -0.04%, narrow trading range and formed a doji candle pattern. 

Mega caps AVGO, AAPL, TSM, NVDA, GOOGL, AMZN, MSFT, BRK/B rose TSLA, META fell on Friday. 

SPY up 9.36 at 533.94, 97.8 million shares, above average volume

VIX down 3.16 at 37.56

QQQ up 8.22 at 454.40

AAPL, JPM, NVDA, V led the DJIA, 26 advancers, +20

NEM, HII, MRNA, MOS led the SPX, 437 advancers,

MSTR, FAST, AVGO, AMD led the NDX, 84 advancers

Up: QQQ, SPY, DIA, IWM,

Down:

The SPY MFC green line pointed up to 33.9 and is short-term bullish. +9.

All eleven sectors were higher on Friday, led by XLB, XLE and XLK. 

Uptrend sectors: 

Neutral sectors: XLP, XLC, XLF, XLU, XLY,

Down trend sectors: XLV, XLRE, XLE, XLI, XLK, XLB,

The 6-month intermediate trend is down.  The ten-day trend is down.

3-month Intermediate Term Market Trend:  Down

3-day Short Term Market Trend:  Up

84 of 100 NDX stocks closed higher on Friday.

25 NDX stocks are above their 30 DMA: EXC, CPRT, AXON, CCEP, CDNS, COST, CRWD, CTAS, KDP, MDLZ, MNST, PLTR, ROST, ORLY, ADP, AVGO, BKNG, EA, FAST, FTNT, MSFT, MSTR, TTWO, VRSK, XEL,

NDX Stocks to Watch on Monday:

Moving Above 30 DMA = 11

ADP, AVGO, BKNG, EA, FAST, FTNT, MSFT, MSTR, TTWO, VRSK, XEL,

Moving Below 30 DMA = 0

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Massive Rally Partially Retraces on Thursday as SPX, NDX Closed Lower...Consumer Staples Lead Sectors...EPS Season Starts Friday BMO JPM, MS, WFC, BLK, BK...

© 2025

SPX -188.85, 5,268, a 39.8% correction/breakout test, opened lower after a better-than-expected CPI Report: CPI M/M -0.1% vs 0.1% exp and Y/Y 2.4% vs. 2.6% exp. 

                                    Core CPI M/M 0.1% vs 0.3% exp and Y/Y 2.8% vs. 3.0% exp.

The /ES futures did move up about 40 points on the CPI Report but quickly fell back and continued to move lower throughout the trading day as traders chose to cash in some one-day gains from Wednesday’s massive rally.

Thursday was a pause or retracement day after a major four standard deviation rally yesterday.  The fact that today’s retracement was smaller in size than Wednesday’s rally is positive.  The SPY fell below but rallied to close above Monday’s high is another positive and indicates that institutional buyers were buying this afternoon, which can also be seen in the lower shadow on today’s candle.

Breadth weakened as exchange and index advancers decreased significantly from Wednesday.  Net change declining capital was large in both the NDX and SPX, but one-third the size of net advancing capital on Wednesday.  The VIX +7.10 rose to 40.72.

The DJI, 39,593 -2.50%, opened lower and closed lower.  NDX -4.19% retraced 34.8% of Wednesday’s rally.

EPS season unofficially starts on Friday with six SPX companies reporting BMO including major financial stocks JPM, MS, WFC, BLK and BK.

TSLA -19.80, -7.27%, 39.3% retracement of Wednesday’s gain.  

Mega caps BRK/B, MSFT, GOOGL, AAPL, TSM, AMZN, NVDA, META, AVGO TSLA fell on Thursday. 

SPY down 24.04 at 524.58, 162.3 million shares, above average volume, did re-close above the high of the low day

VIX up 7.10 at 40.72

QQQ down 19.82 at 446.18

UNH, VZ, KO, WMT led the DJIA, 6 advancers, -19

NEM, MKTX, ERIE, KR led the SPX, 75 advancers,

EA, EXC, ORLY, ROST led the NDX, 9 advancers

Up:

Down: DIA, IWM, QQQ, SPY,

The SPY MFC green line pointed up to 24.9 and is short-term bullish. +7.3.

One of eleven sectors was higher on Thursday, led by XLP, XLU and XLRE. 

Uptrend sectors: 

Neutral sectors: XLP, XLC, XLF, XLU, XLY,

Down trend sectors: XLV, XLRE, XLE, XLI, XLK, XLB,

The 6-month intermediate trend is down.  The ten-day trend is down.

3-month Intermediate Term Market Trend:  Down

3-day Short Term Market Trend:  Up

9 of 100 NDX stocks closed higher on Thursday.

14 NDX stocks are above their 30 DMA: EXC, CPRT, AXON, CCEP, CDNS, COST, CRWD, CTAS, KDP, MDLZ, MNST, PLTR, ROST, ORLY,

NDX Stocks to Watch on Friday:

Moving Above 30 DMA = 1

ORLY,

Moving Below 30 DMA = 17

ADSK, AMAT, AVGO, BKNG, CEG, CSGP, DASH, FAST, FTNT, ISRG, KLAC, MSFT, MSTR, NVDA, TSLA, TTWO, ZS,

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One of the Best Days Ever...Key Reversal Day...SPX Soars, VIX Falls 35% after Tariff Pause...

© 2025

SPX +474.13, 5,456, slightly lower, traded in a range for three plus hours, until an announcement that tariffs would be paused for 90 days, (for each country except China because they choose to retaliate), to give countries an opportunity to negotiate a fair-trade deal, then the market soared (a word I reserve for a day that actually soars) forming a key reversal day, a one day reversal pattern that opens lower and reverses to close above the high of the low day of the downtrend

I’m not aware that Jim Rohn, Zig Ziglar, Anthony Robbins or other self-development instructors teach that the path to goal achievement is retaliation.  In fact, I would be surprised if most of us were not taught by parents, family members, teachers or coaches that cooperation is a better path for goal achievement.  Can you imagine, LOL, your grandmother telling you that to be successful in life, retaliation is the way to become your best.  Never once in my life has anyone that cared for me, taught me to have a retaliation or defensive attitude to move forward in life.

According to a recent internet search: a "retaliation attitude" refers to a mindset or approach where someone is inclined to respond negatively or punitively to perceived wrongdoing or actions, often with the intent to cause harm or discomfort in return.  Anyone that is out to cause you harm or discomfort is not really a friend, or they are an extremely immature friend that doesn’t truly appreciate your friendship. 

As a trade mentor I teach those engaged in making decisions in the face of uncertainty to keep their mental focus in the logical and rule following part of their brain and don’t allow their focus to flip into the emotional fight or flight portion of their brain.  Fight, flight or freeze is not an effective strategy for making life better.

The SPX +9.38% last rose a similar amount on March 24, 2020. On that day 489 SPX stocks advanced and 98 NDX stocks rose.  Today 491 SPX stocks and 99 NDX stocks gained. 

Breadth strengthened as exchange and index advancers increased to 98%+.  Net change advancing capital led in both the NDX and SPX.   In fact, the NDX regained more than all the negative declining capital of the prior four days, as institutions bought in an atypically large size today.  The VIX -18.71 fell 35% to 33.62.

The DJI, 40,608 +7.87%, opened lower and closed higher.  NDX +12.02% opened slightly higher, traded in a range and soared after the tariff pause announcement.

TSLA +50.34, +22.69%, bounced from its one-month support area moving above the HOLD for a channel bounce entry signal.  

Mega caps TSLA, NVDA, AVGO, AAPL, META, TSM, AMZN MSFT, GOOGL, BRK/B rose on Wednesday. 

SPY up 52.14 at 548.62, 241.8 million shares, above average volume,

VIX down 18.71 at 33.62

QQQ up 49.94 at 466.00

NVDA, BA, AAPL, AXP led the DJIA, 30 advancers, +25

MCHP, UAL, AMD, DAL ON, TSLA led the SPX, 491 advancers,

MCHP, MSTR, ARM, AMD led the NDX, 99 advancers

Up: QQQ, SPY, IWM, DIA,

Down:

The SPY MFC green line turned up to 17.6 and is short-term bullish. +6.0.

All of eleven sectors were higher on Wednesday, led by XLK, XLY and XLI. 

Uptrend sectors: 

Neutral sectors: XLP, XLC, XLF, XLU, XLY,

Down trend sectors: XLV, XLRE, XLE, XLI, XLK, XLB,

The 6-month intermediate trend is down.  The ten-day trend is down.

3-month Intermediate Term Market Trend:  Down

3-day Short Term Market Trend:  Up

99 of 100 NDX stocks closed higher on Wednesday.

30 NDX stocks are above their 30 DMA: EXC, CPRT, ADSK, AMAT, AVGO, AXON, BKNG, CCEP, CDNS, CEG, COST, CRWD, CSGP, CTAS, DASH, FAST, FTNT, ISRG, KDP, KLAC, MSLZ, MNST, MSFT, MSTR, NVDA, PLTR, ROST, TSLA, TTWO, ZS,

NDX Stocks to Watch on Thursday:

Moving Above 30 DMA = 28

ADSK, AMAT, AVGO, AXON, BKNG, CCEP, CDNS, CEG, COST, CRWD, CSGP, CTAS, DASH, FAST, FTNT, ISRG, KDP, KLAC, MDLZ, MNST, MSFT, MSTR, NVDA, PLTR, ROST, TSLA, TTWO, ZS,

Moving Below 30 DMA = 0

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SPX, NDX Close Lower, Give Backs Gains as Retaliatory Tariffs to Begin...Mega Caps Weaker...VIX at New Closing High...

© 2025

SPX -79.08, 4,982, opened higher, reportedly sold off after WH Press Secretary confirmed a 104% retaliatory tariff on China.  Apparently, it is still human nature to resist change and test another’s resolve to a proposition.

It’s wise counsel to be suspicious of those who feign an interest in your 401K when they can’t even balance their own budget.

Breadth weakened as exchange and index advancers decreased. Net change declining capital led in both the NDX and SPX.   The VIX +5.35 before reversing to reach a two-year closing high at 52.33.

The DJI, 37,645 -0.84%, opened higher and closed lower.  NDX -1.95% opened higher, reversed lower and formed a large red candle.

TSLA -11.43, -4.90%, fell to one-month support and is a potential break of support setup.

Mega caps AVGO, BRK/B rose and MSFT, META, NVDA, GOOGL, AMZN, TSM, TSLA, AAPL fell on Tuesday. 

SPY down 7.90 at 496.48, 165.3 million shares, above average volume,

VIX up 5.35 at 52.33

QQQ down 7.63 at 416.06

UNH, TRV, JPM, BA led the DJIA, 5 advancers,

HUM, CVS, UNH, LMT, GD led the SPX, 68 advancers,

CEG, MELI, APP, AVGO led the NDX, 13 advancers

Up:

Down: DIA, SPY, QQQ, IWM,

The SPY MFC green line pointed down to 11.6 and is short-term bearish. -1.7.

All of eleven sectors were lower on Tuesday, least negative XLF, XLU and XLI. 

Uptrend sectors: 

Neutral sectors: XLF, XLP, XLU,

Down trend sectors: XLRE, XLE, XLC, XLY, XLI, XLV, XLK, XLB,

The 6-month intermediate trend is down.  The ten-day trend is down.

3-month Intermediate Term Market Trend:  Down

3-day Short Term Market Trend:  Down

13 of 100 NDX stocks closed higher on Tuesday.

2 NDX stocks are above their 30 DMA: EXC, CPRT,

NDX Stocks to Watch on Wednesday:

Moving Above 30 DMA = 1

CPRT,

Moving Below 30 DMA = 1

MNST,

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