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2025
SPX +95.31, 5,363, opened flat after a better-than-expected PPI
Report and after trading in a range for two hours trended up to a strong close.
The /ES futures did rise 28
points on the PPI announcement but within 45 minutes fell 84 points.
PPI Report: M/M
-0.4% vs 0.2% exp and Y/Y 2.7% vs. 3.4% exp.
Core M/M
-0.1% vs 0.3% exp and Y/Y 3.3% vs. 3.6% exp.
Breadth strengthened as exchange and index
advancers increased more than 250% from Thursday. Net change advancing capital in both the NDX
and SPX, was about ten times greater than net change declining capital. The VIX fell to 37.56.
The DJI, 39,593 -2.50%, opened lower
and closed lower. NDX -4.19% retraced 34.8%
of Wednesday’s rally.
Having
read portions of several news writeups in a live newsfeed (11 major
news sources), I was very disappointed in the financial media’s
discussions of Thursday’s price action. Many characterized it with words like crushed,
resume selloff, sharply lower and other incomplete
superlatives that highlight the writer’s inability to either see clearly price
action or an unwillingness to describe price action accurately.
Here is Chart Signals write up from our Thursday post…
“Thursday
was a pause or retracement day after a major four standard deviation
rally yesterday. The fact that today’s
retracement was smaller in size than Wednesday’s rally is positive. The SPY fell below but rallied to close
above Monday’s high is another positive and indicates that institutional
buyers were buying this afternoon, which can also be seen in the lower
shadow on today’s candle.”
No superlatives, just an accurate description of what you see on a
chart. Price fluctuation is a daily occurrence
and because a rally pauses or pulls back is NOT “crushed,” “sharply lower,” or “resume
selloff.” It is fluctuation.
I’m guessing that every financial writer breathes and
that they don’t even think of their own breathing cycle of inhaling and exhaling. I’m also guessing that if they did think
about their breathing cycle that they would not consider their exhaling as
evidence of something bad, but rather just part of a healthy and necessary
cycle. We could even call it the “cycle
of life.” The point is that price
fluctuations are a healthy part of a continuous stream of price quotations.
Friday
was a continuation of the short-term trend that began at
9:44 am ET on Monday. Friday’s portion
of the short-term trend started on Thursday at 12:27 pm ET. For the fourth day in a row, Friday made a
higher low on the daily chart, visible evidence of the current short-term uptrend. Friday was also a re-breakout of the high of
the low day (Monday) which is a positive indication that at least on Friday,
institutions are net short-term buyers.
Oh yeah, even though VIX closed lower, 37.56 is very
high volatility. Look
for more fluctuation, stay focused on the trend.
___________________________________________________________________
EPS Q1 on six SPX
stocks reported: FAST, JPM, BLK, MS, BK, WFC
31 more SPX companies report next week including GS
and MTB on Monday.
First
day reaction:
Q1
Positive: FAST, JPM, BLK, MS,
BK, DAL = 6
Neutral: WFC, STZ = 2
Negative: KMX = 1
___________________________________________________________________
TSLA -0.09, -0.04%, narrow
trading range and formed a doji candle pattern.
Mega caps AVGO, AAPL, TSM, NVDA, GOOGL, AMZN, MSFT, BRK/B rose
TSLA, META fell on Friday.
SPY up 9.36 at 533.94, 97.8 million
shares, above average volume
VIX down 3.16 at 37.56
QQQ up 8.22 at 454.40
AAPL, JPM, NVDA, V led the DJIA, 26 advancers, +20
NEM, HII, MRNA, MOS led the SPX, 437 advancers,
MSTR, FAST, AVGO, AMD led the NDX, 84 advancers
Up: QQQ, SPY, DIA, IWM,
Down:
The SPY
MFC green line pointed up to 33.9 and is short-term bullish. +9.
All eleven sectors were
higher on Friday, led by XLB, XLE and XLK.
Uptrend sectors:
Neutral sectors: XLP, XLC, XLF, XLU, XLY,
Down trend sectors: XLV, XLRE, XLE, XLI, XLK, XLB,
The 6-month intermediate trend is down. The ten-day trend
is down.
3-month Intermediate Term Market Trend: Down
3-day Short Term Market Trend: Up
84 of 100 NDX stocks closed higher on Friday.
25 NDX stocks are above their 30
DMA: EXC, CPRT, AXON,
CCEP, CDNS, COST, CRWD, CTAS, KDP, MDLZ, MNST, PLTR, ROST, ORLY, ADP, AVGO, BKNG,
EA, FAST, FTNT, MSFT, MSTR, TTWO, VRSK, XEL,
NDX Stocks to Watch on Monday:
Moving Above 30 DMA = 11
ADP, AVGO, BKNG, EA, FAST, FTNT, MSFT, MSTR, TTWO, VRSK, XEL,
Moving Below 30 DMA = 0
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Comments here:
2 comments:
Thanks Dave for your financial writeup. I very seldom hear the words "Price Action" or the study of such. Seems the Financial Media is more concerned about Headlines than proper analysis. Thank you for yours.
TraderBobb...Unfortunately the media seems to be more concerned with attention getting narratives than outstanding price action analysis. Thanks for reading...Dave
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