Friday, December 20, 2024

SPX, NDX Rally after a Better-than-expected PCE Report...Real Estate, Utilities, Technology Lead all Sectors Higher...NDX, SPX Changes BMO Monday...


© 2024


This was a very atypical week with Wednesday’s unusually large selloff reaction to both the FOMC announcement and press conference, followed by Thursday evening’s selloff and Friday’s unusually large and very broad rally, and the VIX and VIX1D’s large gain on Wednesday and large drop on Friday.  The narrative directed towards the Fed and Chairman Powell also seemed quite negative after the 25-bps cut on Wednesday and the market traded as if it was positively surprised by the better than consensus PCE report Friday morning.

Notwithstanding the atypical moves in the indices and volatility and the tone of the narrative towards the Fed, it appears that the broad market uptrend is still intact and will survive the sharp counter-trend reaction of this week.

SPX +63.77, 5,930, opened lower, following a selloff in the futures market Thursday evening after the House failed to pass a temporary spending bill and concern over a PCE inflation report Friday before the open.  Friday 8:30 am the PCE report was 0.1% lower in each category (better than expected) and the futures rallied from its overnight low, but still negative on the open.  The rally continued after the open and gained 114 SPX points before finding sellers near R1 of Wednesday’s large red candle.

Congress passed a spending bill Friday evening after the market closed.  Friday’s falling VIX down 5.73, seemed to reflect the market’s confidence that a spending plan would be passed.

The DJI, 42,840, closed higher for a second day as GS and UNH gained the most points in the price weighted index.  The RUT closed higher.

NDX +0.85% closed higher forming a 4-day bull flag pattern and a BO test.


TSLA -15.11, -3.46%, opened lower, formed an inverted hammer candle in a 3-day bull flag pattern.

PLTR, AXON and MSTR will be added to the NDX before the open on Monday, Dec. 23 and SMCI, MRNA and ILMN will be removed.

LII, APO and WDAY will be added to the SPX before the open on Monday, Dec. 23 and CTLT, QRVO and AMTM will be removed.  


Mega caps NVDA, AAPL, GOOGL, AVGO, BRK/B, AMZN rose, and MSFT, META, TSLA fell on Friday.


SPY up 7.01 at 591.15, ex-dividend 1.966, 125.7 million shares, above average volume,
VIX down 5.73 at 18.36,
VIX1D down 5.94 at 17.37, post FOMC.
QQQ up 4.49 at 518.66

NVDA, UNH, CRM, GS led the DJIA, 23 advancers, +5         
ENPH, PLTR, MTCH, CCL, NCLH led the SPX, 444 advancers
APP, DXCM, ABNB, MU led the NDX, 79 advancers

Up:  DIA, SPY, IWM, QQQ,
Down: 

The SPY MFC green line is pointed down at 53.8 and is counter-trend defensive. -10.3.

All eleven sectors were higher on Friday, led by XLRE, XLU and XLK. 

Uptrend sectors:   XLY, XLC, XLK, XLF, XLI, XLP, XLU, XLRE,
Neutral sectors:  XLE,
Down trend sectors: XLB, XLV,

The 6-month intermediate trend is up.  The ten-day trend is down.

3-month Intermediate Term Market Trend: Up
3-day Short Term Market TrendDown


79 of 100 NDX stocks closed higher on Friday.

19 NDX stocks are above their 30 DMA:  MRVL, NFLX, TSLA, WBD, AMZN, DDOG, LULU, AAPL, MSFT, ASML, WDAY, AVGO, GOOGL, APP, CRWD, DXCM, FTNT, GILD, ROST,

NDX Stocks to Watch on Monday:
Moving Above 30 DMA = 6
APP, CRWD, DXCM, FTNT, GILD, ROST,


Moving Below 30 DMA = 1
META,



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