SPX, NDX Rally after a Better-than-expected PCE Report...Real Estate, Utilities, Technology Lead all Sectors Higher...NDX, SPX Changes BMO Monday...

© 2024

This was a very atypical week with Wednesday’s unusually large selloff reaction to both the FOMC announcement and press conference, followed by Thursday evening’s selloff and Friday’s unusually large and very broad rally, and the VIX and VIX1D’s large gain on Wednesday and large drop on Friday.  The narrative directed towards the Fed and Chairman Powell also seemed quite negative after the 25-bps cut on Wednesday and the market traded as if it was positively surprised by the better than consensus PCE report Friday morning.

Notwithstanding the atypical moves in the indices and volatility and the tone of the narrative towards the Fed, it appears that the broad market uptrend is still intact and will survive the sharp counter-trend reaction of this week.

SPX +63.77, 5,930, opened lower, following a selloff in the futures market Thursday evening after the House failed to pass a temporary spending bill and concern over a PCE inflation report Friday before the open.  Friday 8:30 am the PCE report was 0.1% lower in each category (better than expected) and the futures rallied from its overnight low, but still negative on the open.  The rally continued after the open and gained 114 SPX points before finding sellers near R1 of Wednesday’s large red candle.

Congress passed a spending bill Friday evening after the market closed.  Friday’s falling VIX down 5.73, seemed to reflect the market’s confidence that a spending plan would be passed.

The DJI, 42,840, closed higher for a second day as GS and UNH gained the most points in the price weighted index.  The RUT closed higher.

NDX +0.85% closed higher forming a 4-day bull flag pattern and a BO test.

TSLA -15.11, -3.46%, opened lower, formed an inverted hammer candle in a 3-day bull flag pattern.

PLTR, AXON and MSTR will be added to the NDX before the open on Monday, Dec. 23 and SMCI, MRNA and ILMN will be removed.

LII, APO and WDAY will be added to the SPX before the open on Monday, Dec. 23 and CTLT, QRVO and AMTM will be removed.  

Mega caps NVDA, AAPL, GOOGL, AVGO, BRK/B, AMZN rose, and MSFT, META, TSLA fell on Friday.

SPY up 7.01 at 591.15, ex-dividend 1.966, 125.7 million shares, above average volume,

VIX down 5.73 at 18.36,

VIX1D down 5.94 at 17.37, post FOMC.

QQQ up 4.49 at 518.66

NVDA, UNH, CRM, GS led the DJIA, 23 advancers, +5         

ENPH, PLTR, MTCH, CCL, NCLH led the SPX, 444 advancers

APP, DXCM, ABNB, MU led the NDX, 79 advancers

Up:  DIA, SPY, IWM, QQQ,

Down: 

The SPY MFC green line is pointed down at 53.8 and is counter-trend defensive. -10.3.

All eleven sectors were higher on Friday, led by XLRE, XLU and XLK. 

Uptrend sectors:   XLY, XLC, XLK, XLF, XLI, XLP, XLU, XLRE,

Neutral sectors:  XLE,

Down trend sectors: XLB, XLV,

The 6-month intermediate trend is up.  The ten-day trend is down.

3-month Intermediate Term Market Trend: Up

3-day Short Term Market Trend: Down

79 of 100 NDX stocks closed higher on Friday.

18 NDX stocks are above their 30 DMA:  MRVL, NFLX, TSLA, WBD, AMZN, DDOG, LULU, AAPL, MSFT, ASML, WDAY, AVGO, GOOGL CRWD, DXCM, FTNT, GILD, ROST,

NDX Stocks to Watch on Friday:

Moving Above 30 DMA = 5

CRWD, DXCM, FTNT, GILD, ROST,

Moving Below 30 DMA = 1

META,

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SPX, NDX Closed Lower after Higher Open...Utilities, Fiancial and Technology Lead Sectors

© 2024

SPX -5.08, 5,867, opened higher, traded in a volatile range and closed lower.  Breadth strengthened from Wednesday but remained negative.  The DJI, 42,342 closed higher after a ten-day pullback, reportedly the longest since 1974.  The RUT closed lower.

NDX -0.47% closed lower in a 3-day bull flag pattern.

LW -15.72, -20.10%, MU -16.81, -16.18%, CTAS -21.60, -10.57%, closed lower on negative earnings reactions. 

TSLA -3.96, -0.90%, opened higher, closed slightly lower.

SMCI -0.99, -3.07%, closed at 3-week support. 

PLTR, AXON and MSTR will be added to the NDX before the open on Dec. 23 and SMCI, MRNA and ILMN will be removed.

LII, APO and WDAY will be added to the SPX before the open on Monday, Dec. 23 and CTLT, QRVO and AMTM will be removed.  

Mega caps NVDA, AMZN, AAPL, BRK/B, GOOGL rose, and MSFT, META, TSLA, AVGO fell on Thursday.

SPY down 0.18 at 586.10, 85.9 million shares, above average volume,

VIX down 3.53 at 24.09,

VIX1D down 22.44 at 23.31, post FOMC.

QQQ down 2.30 at 514.17

BA, AXP, IBM, V led the DJIA, 18 advancers, +17                 

DRI, ACN, GEV, UAL, PLTR led the SPX, 197 advancers

MRVL, MRNA, APP, EXC led the NDX, 36 advancers

Up:  DIA,

Down:  SPY, IWM, QQQ,

The SPY MFC green line is pointed down at 64.1 and is counter-trend defensive. -15.9.

Three of eleven sectors were higher on Thursday, led by XLU, XLF and XLK. 

Uptrend sectors:   XLY, XLC, XLK, XLF, XLI, XLP, XLU, XLRE,

Neutral sectors:  XLE, XLB,

Down trend sectors: XLV,

The 6-month intermediate trend is up.  The ten-day trend is down.

3-month Intermediate Term Market Trend: Up

3-day Short Term Market Trend: Down

36 of 100 NDX stocks closed higher on Thursday.

15 NDX stocks are above their 30 DMA:  MRVL, NFLX, TSLA, WBD, AMZN, DDOG, LULU, AAPL, MSFT, ASML, META, CCEP, WDAY, AVGO, GOOGL

NDX Stocks to Watch on Friday:

Moving Above 30 DMA = 0

Moving Below 30 DMA = 5

COST, LRCX, MU, ROST, SMCI,

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SPX Largest 2024 Point Drop as Fed SEP Expects only 2 Rate Cuts in 2025...

© 2024

SPX -178.45, 5,872, fell (SPXs largest daily point drop in 2024) after the Fed lowered the Fed Funds rate 25 bps as expected, and released the SEP which indicated a decrease from four to two expected rate cuts in 2025.  The broad selloff continued to accelerate to the downside as the 2:30 pm press conference began.  The DJI fell for a tenth day to 42,326.  The RUT closed lower.

NDX -3.60% closed lower.

TSLA -39.73, -8.28%, opened lower, rallied to a new high and sold off with the market following the FOMC announcement.

SMCI -1.57, -4.64%, sold off with the market after the FOMC announcement. 

SMCI will be removed from the NDX 100 before the open on Dec. 23 along with MRNA and ILMN.  PLTR, AXON and MSTR will be added to the NDX.

Mega caps NVDA, BRK/B, AAPL, META, GOOGL, MSFT, AMZN, AVGO, TSLA fell on Wednesday.

SPY down 18.01 at 586.28, 108.2 million shares, above average volume,

VIX up 11.75 at 27.62,

VIX1D up 32.46 at 45.75, FOMC event risk on Wednesday did occur to the downside.

QQQ down 19.33 at 516.47

UNH, BA led the DJIA, 1 advancer, -8                                       

JBL, CI, UNH, CNC, CVS led the SPX, 18 advancers

EXC, TMUS led the NDX, 1 advancer

Up: 

Down:  DIA, SPY, QQQ, IWM,

The SPY MFC green line turned down at 80 and is counter-trend defensive. -11.1.

All eleven sectors were lower on Wednesday. 

Uptrend sectors:   XLY, XLC, XLK, XLF, XLI, XLP, XLU, XLRE,

Neutral sectors:  XLE, XLB,

Down trend sectors: XLV,

The 6-month intermediate trend is up.  The ten-day trend is down.

3-month Intermediate Term Market Trend: Up

3-day Short Term Market Trend: Down

1 of 100 NDX stocks closed higher on Wednesday.

20 NDX stocks are above their 30 DMA:  MRVL, NFLX, TSLA, WBD, AMZN, COST, DDOG, LULU, ROST, AAPL, SMCI, MSFT, ASML, META, LRCX, CCEP, WDAY, AVGO, GOOGL, MU,

NDX Stocks to Watch on Thursday:

Moving Above 30 DMA = 0

Moving Below 30 DMA = 25

APP, ARM, AZN, BKNG, CDNS, CPRT, CRWD, CTSH, DASH, DXCM, FTNT, GFS, GILD, HON, INTU, ISRG, KDP, KLAC, MAR, ORLY, PANW, PYPL, TEAM, TTD, TTWO,

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SPX, NDX Closed Lower...Consumer Discretionary Lead Sectors...TSLA All-time High Leads NDX...FOMC at 2 pm ET...

© 2024

SPX -23.47, 6,050, pulled back to Friday’s close.    The DJI closed lower at 43,449, pulled back for a ninth day (just -3.47% in those nine days), reportedly for the first time since 1978.  The RUT closed lower.

NDX -0.43% pulled back to Monday’s S1 support after a new all-time closing high.

Fed interest rate announcement Wednesday 2 pm and press conference 2:30 pm ET.

TSLA +16.84, +3.64%, made a new all-time closing high.

SMCI +0.36, +1.08%, rallied after Monday’s selloff. 

SMCI will be removed from the NDX 100 before the open on Dec. 23 along with MRNA and ILMN.  PLTR, AXON and MSTR will be added to the NDX.

Mega caps TLSA, AAPL, MSFT, BRK/B rose, and GOOGL, AMZN, META, NVDA, AVGO fell on Tuesday.

SPY down 2.50 at 604.29, 55.6 million shares, above average volume,

VIX up 1.18 at 15.87,

VIX1D up 4.35 at 13.29, FOMC event risk on Wednesday

QQQ down 2.37 at 535.80

JNJ, KO, NKE, AAPL led the DJIA, 9 advancers, -4              

PFE, FOXA, TSLA, BMY, WYNN led the SPX, 122 advancers

TSLA, PDD, REGN ON led the NDX, 38 advancers

Up: 

Down:  SPY, QQQ, IWM, DIA,

The SPY MFC green line is pointed up at 91.1 and is short-term bullish. +0.7.

One of eleven sectors was higher on Tuesday, led by XLY, XLV and XLP. 

Uptrend sectors:   XLY, XLC, XLK, XLF, XLI, XLP, XLU, XLRE,

Neutral sectors:  XLE, XLB,

Down trend sectors: XLV,

The 6-month intermediate trend is up.  The ten-day trend is sideways.

3-month Intermediate Term Market Trend: Up

3-day Short Term Market Trend: Sideways

38 of 100 NDX stocks closed higher on Tuesday.

45 NDX stocks are above their 30 DMA:  DASH, BKNG, MRVL, TEAM, PANW, TTWO, ISRG, NFLX, TSLA, CDNS, WBD, AMZN, CRWD, COST, GFS, MAR, CPRT, FTNT, HON, PYPL, DXCM, APP, DDOG, CTSH, LULU, TTD, ORLY, ROST, AAPL, SMCI, MSFT, ASML, META, LRCX, CCEP, WDAY, AVGO, GOOGL, AZN, KDP, GILD, ARM, KLAC, MU, INTU,

NDX Stocks to Watch on Wednesday:

Moving Above 30 DMA = 0

Moving Below 30 DMA = 3

IDXX, ILMN, ZS,

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NDX All-time Closing High...SPX Rises...Consumer Discretionary, Technology, Communication Services Lead Sectors...AVGO, TSLA Lead SPX, NDX on Monday...Fed Announcement on Wednesday...

© 2024

SPX +22.99, 6,074, closed higher in a congested bull flag price pattern.    The DJI closed lower at 43,717.  The RUT closed higher and formed a bullish engulfing pattern at support.

NDX +1.45% closed at a new all-time closing high.

Fed interest rate announcement and press conference Wednesday afternoon.

AVGO +25.20, +11.21%, joined the mega-cap ranks last week with a trillion-dollar market cap after reporting strong earnings and AI growth.

SMCI -3.01, -8.26%, will be removed from the NDX 100 before the open on Dec. 23 along with MRNA and ILMN.  PLTR, AXON and MSTR will be added to the NDX.

Mega caps AVGO, TLSA, GOOGL, AMZN, AAPL, MSFT, META rose, and BRK/B, NVDA fell on Monday.

SPY up 2.58 at 606.79, 43.6 million shares, above average volume,

VIX up .88 at 14.69

QQQ up 7.64 at 538.17

HON, AMZN, BA, AAPL led the DJIA, 13 advancers,            

AVGO, TSLA, MU, CRWD, TER led the SPX, 181 advancers

AVGO, TSLA, APP, MU led the NDX, 52 advancers

Up:  QQQ, IWM, SPY,

Down:  DIA,

The SPY MFC green line turned up at 90.4 and is short-term bullish. +1.1.

Four of eleven sectors were higher on Monday, led by XLY, XLK and XLC. 

Uptrend sectors:   XLY, XLC, XLK, XLF, XLI, XLP, XLU, XLRE,

Neutral sectors:  XLE, XLB,

Down trend sectors: XLV,

The 6-month intermediate trend is up.  The ten-day trend is up a little.

3-month Intermediate Term Market Trend: Up

3-day Short Term Market Trend: Sideways

52 of 100 NDX stocks closed higher on Monday.

50 NDX stocks are above their 30 DMA:  DASH, BKNG, MRVL, TEAM, PANW, TTWO, ISRG, NFLX, TSLA, CDNS, WBD, AMZN, CRWD, COST, GFS, MAR, CPRT, FTNT, HON, PYPL, DXCM, SBUX, APP, DDOG, CTSH, LULU, TTD, DLTR, ORLY, ROST, AAPL, SMCI, MSFT, ASML, META, LRCX, CCEP, WDAY, AVGO, GOOGL, AZN, IDXX, KDP, GILD, ARM, KLAC, MU, ILMN, INTU, ZS,

NDX Stocks to Watch on Tuesday:

Moving Above 30 DMA = 3

ILMN, INTU, ZS,

Moving Below 30 DMA = 2

CSCO, KHC,

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SPX Unchanged...NDX All-time Closing High...

© 2024

SPX -0.16, 6,051, unchanged.   The DJI closed lower at 43,828.

NDX +0.76% a new all-time closing high.

The SPY MFC green line is pointed down at 88.8 and is counter-trend defensive. -1.9.

Uptrend sectors:   XLY, XLC, XLK, XLF, XLI, XLE, XLP, XLU, XLRE, XLB,

Neutral sectors:  XLV,

Down trend sectors:

The 6-month intermediate trend is up.  The ten-day trend is up.

3-month Intermediate Term Market Trend: Up

3-day Short Term Market Trend: Up a little

21 of 100 NDX stocks closed higher on Friday.

49 NDX stocks are above their 30 DMA:  DASH, CSCO, BKNG, MRVL, TEAM, PANW, TTWO, ISRG, NFLX, TSLA, CDNS, WBD, AMZN, CRWD, COST, GFS, MAR, CPRT, FTNT, HON, PYPL, DXCM, SBUX, APP, DDOG, CTSH, LULU, TTD, DLTR, ORLY, ROST, AAPL, SMCI, MSFT, ASML, META, LRCX, CCEP, WDAY, AVGO, GOOGL, AZN, IDXX, KDP, GILD, ARM, KHC, KLAC, MU,

NDX Stocks to Watch on Monday:

Moving Above 30 DMA = 3

KHC, KLAC, MU,

Moving Below 30 DMA = 8

ABNB, ADSK, CHTR, CSGP, EA, ILMN, INTU, ZS,

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SPX Closed Lower...

© 2024

SPX -32.94, 6,051, pulled back.    The DJI closed lower at 44,148. 

NDX -0.68% closed lower.

The SPY MFC green line is pointed down at 90.7 and is counter-trend defensive. -1.5.

Uptrend sectors:   XLY, XLC, XLK, XLF, XLI, XLE, XLP, XLU, XLRE, XLB,

Neutral sectors:  XLV,

Down trend sectors:

The 6-month intermediate trend is up.  The ten-day trend is up.

3-month Intermediate Term Market Trend: Up

3-day Short Term Market Trend: Sideways

38 of 100 NDX stocks closed higher on Thursday.

54 NDX stocks are above their 30 DMA:  DASH, CSCO, BKNG, MRVL, TEAM, PANW, TTWO, EA, ISRG, NFLX, TSLA, CDNS, WBD, AMZN, ANSS, CRWD, INTU, ZS, COST, GFS, MAR, CPRT, FTNT, HON, PYPL, DXCM, SBUX, DDOG, CTSH, LULU, TTD, DLTR, ORLY, ROST, AAPL, SMCI, MSFT, ASML, META, LRCX, CCEP, WDAY, ADSK, AVGO, GOOGL, ABNB, AZN, IDXX, ILMN, KDP, GILD, ARM, CSGP, INTU, CHTR,

NDX Stocks to Watch on Friday:

Moving Above 30 DMA = 1

CHTR,

Moving Below 30 DMA = 4

ADBE, ANSS, BKR, PCAR,

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SPX Closed Higher...Bull Flag Bounce...

© 2024

SPX +49.28, 6,084, bounced above the high of the low day two in bull flag price pattern.    The DJI closed lower at 44,148. 

NDX +1.85% closed higher.

The SPY MFC green line is pointed down at 92.5 and is counter-trend defensive. -0.6.

Uptrend sectors:   XLY, XLC, XLK, XLF, XLI, XLE, XLP, XLU, XLRE, XLB,

Neutral sectors:  XLV,

Down trend sectors:

The 6-month intermediate trend is up.  The ten-day trend is up.

3-month Intermediate Term Market Trend: Up

3-day Short Term Market Trend: Sideways

69 of 100 NDX stocks closed higher on Wednesday.

57 NDX stocks are above their 30 DMA:  DASH, CSCO, BKNG, MRVL, TEAM, PANW, TTWO, EA, ISRG, NFLX, TSLA, CDNS, WBD, AMZN, ANSS, CRWD, INTU, ZS, PCAR, COST, GFS, MAR, CPRT, FTNT, HON, PYPL, DXCM, SBUX, ADBE, DDOG, CTSH, LULU, TTD, DLTR, ORLY, ROST, AAPL, SMCI, MSFT, ASML, META, LRCX, CCEP, WDAY, ADSK, AVGO, GOOGL, ABNB, AZN, IDXX, ILMN, KDP, GILD, ANSS, ARM, BKR, CSGP, INTU,

NDX Stocks to Watch on Thursday:

Moving Above 30 DMA = 5

ANSS, ARM, BKR, CSGP, INTU,

Moving Below 30 DMA = 3

ADP, VRSK, XEL,

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SPX Closed Lower, Day Two Flag Pullback...

© 2024

SPX -17.94, 6,034, pulled back forming day two of a potential bull flag price pattern.    The DJI closed lower at 44,247. 

NDX -0.34% closed slightly lower.

The SPY MFC green line is pointed down at 93.1 and is counter-trend defensive. -2.9.

Uptrend sectors:   XLY, XLC, XLK, XLF, XLI, XLE, XLP, XLU, XLRE, XLB,

Neutral sectors:  XLV,

Down trend sectors:

The 6-month intermediate trend is up.  The ten-day trend is up.

3-month Intermediate Term Market Trend: Up

3-day Short Term Market Trend: Down

37 of 100 NDX stocks closed higher on Tuesday.

55 NDX stocks are above their 30 DMA:  DASH, CSCO, BKNG, MRVL, TEAM, PANW, TTWO, EA, ISRG, NFLX, TSLA, CDNS, VRSK, WBD, XEL, AMZN, ANSS, CRWD, INTU, ZS, PCAR, COST, GFS, MAR, CPRT, FTNT, HON, PYPL, DXCM, SBUX, ADBE, DDOG, CTSH, LULU, TTD, DLTR, ORLY, ROST, AAPL, SMCI, MSFT, ASML, META, LRCX, CCEP, WDAY, ADSK, AVGO, GOOGL, ABNB, AZN, IDXX, ILMN, KDP, ADP, GILD,

NDX Stocks to Watch on Wednesday:

Moving Above 30 DMA = 2

ADP, GILD,

Moving Below 30 DMA = 5

CSGP, MDB, MRNA, MU, VRTX,

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SPX, NDX Close Lower...Health Care, Real Estate Lead Sectors...After-hours: ORCL Lower on EPS Reaction...

© 2024

SPX -37.42, 6,052, pulled back forming day one of a potential bull flag price pattern.    The DJI closed lower at 44,401.  The RUT closed lower in an extended bull flag price pattern.

NDX -0.84% closed slightly lower.  

SPY and QQQ moved modestly lower today on below average volume, however these NDX-100 leading decliners CMCSA, CHTR, CTAS, TMUS, MRVL and AMD, moved lower on well above-average volume.

SMCI +0.23, +0.52%, was granted an extension to Feb 25, by the Nasdaq to file annual, quarterly reports.

After-hours: ORCL -14.69, -7.71% on a 1-cent EPS miss and $54 million sales miss $14.059 billion.  Positive AI comments from Larry Ellison, Chairman and CTO.

Mega caps AAPL, MSFT, GOOGL, TSLA rose, and AMZN, BRK/B, META, NVDA fell on Monday.

SPY down 3.13 at 604.68, 34.6 million shares, below average volume,

VIX up 4.67 at 14.19

QQQ down 1.42 at 522.38

UNH, BA, AMGN, AAPL led the DJIA, 11 advancers, -3       

HSY, BBWI, ENPH, CRL, VRSN led the SPX, 229 advancers

PDD, WDAY, ILMN, MCHP led the NDX, 44 advancers

Up: 

Down:  DIA, IWM, SPY, QQQ,

The SPY MFC green line is pointed down at 96 and is counter-trend defensive. -1.7.

Two of eleven sectors were higher on Monday, led by XLV, XLRE and XLB. 

Uptrend sectors:   XLY, XLC, XLK, XLF, XLI, XLE, XLP, XLU, XLRE, XLB,

Neutral sectors:  XLV,

Down trend sectors:

The 6-month intermediate trend is up.  The ten-day trend is up.

3-month Intermediate Term Market Trend: Up

3-day Short Term Market Trend: Sideways

44 of 100 NDX stocks closed higher on Monday.

58 NDX stocks are above their 30 DMA:  DASH, CSCO, BKNG, MRVL, TEAM, PANW, TTWO, EA, ISRG, NFLX, TSLA, CDNS, VRSK, WBD, XEL, AMZN, ANSS, CRWD, INTU, ZS, PCAR, COST, GFS, MAR, MDB, CPRT, FTNT, HON, PYPL, DXCM, SBUX, ADBE, DDOG, CSGP, CTSH, LULU, TTD, DLTR, ORLY, ROST, AAPL, SMCI, MSFT, ASML, META, LRCX, CCEP, WDAY, ADSK, AVGO, GOOGL, ABNB, AZN, IDXX, ILMN, KDP, MRNA, MU, VRTX,

NDX Stocks to Watch on Tuesday:

Moving Above 30 DMA = 5

ILMN, KDP, MRNA, MU, VRTX,

Moving Below 30 DMA = 9

ADP, ARM, CEG, CHTR, CMCSA, CTAS, GILD, NVDA, TMUS,

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