Setups to Watch for Wednesday
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Technical Commentary
The FOMC
is expected to raise rates tomorrow at their 2 pm ET
announcement. The CME FedWatch Tool
indicates a 93% probability of a ¼%
increase in the fed funds rate to 1% and just a 7% probability of it
remaining unchanged. This suggests that market
participants have 0% expectation probability of ½% increase. That would be a real surprise, after
all it is the Ides of March.
Stocks
indexes pulled back on light volume Tuesday testing
support following Friday’s support bounce.
Tuesday was a successful bullish test as QQQ, SPY and DIA made a higher
low today and IWM made a similar
low. The intermediate and long-term trends are still up.
DIA -0.19%, QQQ -0.24%, SPY
-0.38%, IWM -0.48%,
DIA 9-day Bull Flag price pattern forms doji
QQQ = Bull Flag bounce day 3 forms dragonfly doji, at
resistance, HBO setup
SPY = bounce on day 3 pulls back to support form hammer, above
support
IWM = hammer at support on day 8 of pullback
Up Trend: XLF, XLI, XLY, XLK, XLP, XLU, XLV
Sideways: XLB, XLRE
Down Trend: XLE
Breadth weakened as decliners led 1,979 to 1,004 on the NYSE and led 1,914 to 905 on the
NASDAQ.
Tuesday – weakened, decliners led, +0
sectors
Monday – steady, advancers led, +8
Friday – strengthened, advancers led, +7
Thursday – strengthened slightly, decliners led, +4
Wednesday – strengthened slightly, decliners led, +4, 1 sector unchanged
SPY down .91
at 236.90 on 59.7 million shares, 20%
below average volume,
VIX up .95
at 12.30
TLT up .56
at 117.07…on 9.8 million shares 11% above average volume
Oil futures were up .03 to close at 48.50 on Tuesday
The SPY MFC green
line is pointed
down at 77
short-term defensive,
prepare to return to bullish if price moves higher following FOMC
on Wednesday.
6-month Intermediate
Term Market Trend: Up
3-day Short Term Market
Trend: Neutral
SPX and NDX Highlights
SPX down 8 points at 2,365.
SPX gainers WU, MSI REG, GT, KIM, EXR, SPLS, MAA, ADI, WMT, NKE, SE,
FRT, DLPH, NWSA, BWA, PSA, ISRG, FOSL, KORS, DISH, XL, DIS, GPS, DFS, VH, JNPR,
AXP, LB, REGN, RL, HBI, CAG, HAS
QQQ closes down .32 at 131.29.
NDX point leaders: TSLA, CMCSA,
ADI, COST, GOOGL and ISRG
27 of 100 NDX stocks closed
higher and one was unchanged on Tuesday.
70 NDX stocks are above their 30 DMA.
NDX Stocks to Watch on Wednesday:
Moving Above 30 DMA = 1
CHTR,
Moving Below 30 DMA = 6
CHKP, CSX, LBTYA, MAR, MDLZ,
STX,
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Strong Stocks: Setups
and Moves You Can Use
Bull Flag Setups include: SPY, DIA, XLF, FAS,
BA,
MCD, JPM, UTX,
NTAP,
MYL, PAYX, NTES, INTU, MAR, BIIB, MNST, VIAB,
BAC, HBAN,
SODA, GM, USB, SQ, GD, MS, C,
One Day Pullback: UNH, AVGO, MMM, DD,
Bull Flag Bounces include: AXP, ADI, CC, (3)
Horizontal Breakout Setups include: QQQ, XLK, FLEX, MU, AMD, TSLA, YHOO,
GOOGL, RCL, JD, WUBA, BABA, SHOP, SCHW, HIG, WFC, MGM, NRG CCL, NCLH, AMZN, NVDA,
QCOM, CTRP, CELG, CL, SRCL, XLP, LOW, PANW, ADSK, TSCO, PG, UPS, ETFC, STLD, VALE,
ROST,
TSLA breakout today and gap breakout setup...
(click image to enlarge)
Horizontal Breakouts include: DIS, TSLA
New Highs include: WIX, EA, TXN, PCLN, KLAC, AMAT, ATVI, FB, HOLX, LRCX,
SYMC, CLX, INCY, ULTA, NXPI, ADBE, SWKS, SOXL, MXIM,
At Support Setups include: IWM, GS, ZION,
STI, RF, ALK, PYPL, DE, CSX, IYR, NUE, TMUS, EBAY, IBM, CAT, HAL, TLT, AA,
INTC, STX, LNG, ALK, PCAR, GDXJ, HES,
Support Bounce: NKE, COST, STLD, MGM, WDC, WB, MGM, AMBA, MT, CHK, PANW, X,
BHI, CLF,
Break of Support: GLW, LUV, AAL, DAL, UAL, CF,
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