QQQ, SPY, DIA Reach Another All-time New High Close...IWM Near All-time High at Resistance...

Setups to Watch for Monday

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Technical Commentary

The NDX, DJIA and SPX made another new all-time closing high on Friday while the DJIA and the SPX broke through resistance to a new all-time closing high. The RUT  led the broad indexes for the second straight and is at horizontal resistance in its sideways trading channel.

QQQ, SPY, DIA = New High

IWM = Horizontal Breakout Setup of a sideways Channel Price Pattern

Up Trend: XLI, XLB, XLY, XLK, XLP, XLU

Sideways: XLF. XLRE, XLV

Down Trend: XLE

Breadth strengthened as advancers led 2,155 to 857 on the NYSE and led 1,895 to 928 on the NASDAQ.

Friday – strengthened, advancers led, +10 sectors

Thursday – strengthened, advancers led on the NYSE, +8

Wednesday – strengthened, advancers led, +7

Tuesday – strengthened, decliners led, +5

Monday – weakened, decliners led, +3

IWM +1.04%, DIA +0.51%, SPY +0.39%, QQQ +0.33%,

SPY up .91 at 231.51 on 66.0 million shares, 8% below average volume,

VIX down -.03 at 10.85

TLT down -.07 at 120.76…on 7.9 million shares, 15% below average volume

Oil futures were up .71 to close at 53.85 on Friday.  

The SPY MFC green line is pointed up at 92 bullish. 

6-month Intermediate Term Market Trend: Up

3-day Short Term Market Trend: Up

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Weekly Review

For the week ended February 10, nine of ten sectors moved higher.

Leading Sectors:

XLI +1.74%, XLY +1.47%, XLK +1.24%, XLP +1.17%, XLRE +1.13%,

SPY +0.95%,

Lagging Sectors:

XLU +0.80%, XLV +0.62%, XLF +0.25%, XLB +0.04%, XLE -0.16%,

Short-term Movers for the week ended Feb 10:

SPX gainers:  TDG, COG, HBI, EFX, NWSA, CBG, NKE, CNC, ALLE, AGN, NUE, EMR, DRI, ROP, GPS, AMG, PXD, CHD, GT, DG, TDC, FLS, KSS, TSO, RL, NLSN, UAA, MJN, STZ, URBN, SRCL, MPC, CVS,  +10, 4,  +13, 44

SPX losers:  DNB, GCI, FOSL, KORS, MRO, COTY, AIZ, FTI, VMC, SIG, SWN, RIG, CSRA, MUR, FMC, -4, 15

NDX gainers:  HAS, ATVI, CTSH, TSLA, EA, AAL, BIDU, EBAY, ORLY, ROST, VIAB, PCLN, BIIB, JD, +4, 11

NDX losers:  GILD, AKAM, ENDP, FOXA, CERN, -4, 5,

YTD Review 28

Leading Sectors:

XLK +6.12%, XLY +5.32%, XLB +4.83%, XLV +4.24%, XLI +4.03%, XLP +3.69%,

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SPY +3.57%,

Lagging Sectors:

XLF +2.28%, XLRE +1.72%, XLU +1.48%, XLE -2.71%

SPX Leaders:  AA, NRG, QRVO, MJN, CNC, IDXX, URI, FCX, CRM, PHM, SPGI, AGN, RCL, ABC (347, +16 > 10p 79, +19)

SPX Losers:  UAA, SIG, DNB, SWN, XRX HES, KSS, PBI, RL, BMY,

NDX Leaders:  CSX, ATVI, TSLA, HAS, VIAB, SWKS, STX, SYMC, CHKP, NTES (84, +2 >10p 37, +1)

NDX Losers:  ENDP, QCOM, GILD, MAT, ADP, AKAM, PAYX, XLNX, BIIB, INTC

With active options trading

DJI Leaders:  AAPL, NKE, V, MRK, IBM, BA, AXP, DD, DIS, PG, (21, +0, >10p 3, +1)

DJI Losers:  XOM, VZ, GE, CVX, INTC, TRV, KO, WMT, PFE

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SPX and NDX Highlights

SPX up 8 points at 2,316 after a horizontal breakout on Thursday, with a near-term price target of 2,334.

SPX  gainers ATVI, CBG, NWSA, MJN, IPG, HBI, MHK, LEN, EA, PVH, MOS, FCX, NLSN, CAT, BWA, AA, DHI CXO, AMG, MLM, PCLN, URBN, QCOM, NFX, RL, MAS

QQQ closes up 42 cents at 127.38, a new all-time closing high.

   

NDX point leaders: ATVI, AMZN, PCLN, QCOM, GOOG, WBA, GILD, BIIB, EA, BIDU, SBUX, ESRX and EBAY

56 of 100 NDX stocks closed higher on Friday.

76 NDX stocks are above their 30 DMA.

NDX Stocks to Watch on Monday:

Moving Above 30 DMA = 2

CTAS, INTU,

Moving Below 30 DMA = 5

CELG, FOXA, HOLX, ORLY, PYPL,  

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Strong Stocks: Setups and Moves You Can Use

Bull Flag Setups include: SOXL, GDXJ, TLT,

MCHP, MU, WDC, KLAC, TXN, LRCX, NTES, MXIM, ADI, NVDA,

V, DIS, UNH,

AMD, CFG,

One Day Pullback: CLF, VIAB, BABA, K, PG, MAR, AKS, WB,

Bull Flag Bounces include: XLB, CMCSA, ATVI, CF, NRG, (5)

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Horizontal Breakout Setups include: X, MT, VALE, STLD, EA, ROST, DHI, NUE, LNG, XLY, XLI, IWM, FB, FLEX, MS, PCAR, SQ, GS, JPM, CC, USB, SWKS, HBAN, YHOO, IBM, RCL, STX, ADSK, MMM, AXP, GLW, GD, AMZN, CMA, ETFC, WFC, BAC, STI, CSX, BA, GOOGL, TMUS, FAST, ATI, CCL, MSFT, UPS, CAT, HIG, HAL, CHK

Horizontal Breakouts include: ATVI, EA, DD, JD, DHI, FAS, ROST, GS, MT, VALE, CAT,

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New Highs include: ATVI, PCLN, DIA, SPY, EBAY, COST, XLK, LUV, MCD, ADBE, SHOP, CHKP, DE, FB, TSLA, SYMC, XLP, AVGO, AAPL, AMAT

At Support Setups include: BHI, MGM

Support Bounce: UPS, HES, FCX

Break of Support: INTC, GM

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Earnings

This week:

Monday – CBOE, DO, FMC, FOXA, HAS, NOV, SALT, SYY, TSO

Tuesday – ADM, AKAM, BWLD, CAH, CHD, CNC, CSRA, DIS, EMR, GILD, ICE, MDLZ, PXD, TDG, MCHP,

Wednesday – AKAM, ALK, CTSH, ORLY, FISV, GT, JEC, WFM, CTL, PRU

Thursday – REGN, VIAB, CVS, ATVI, CERN, EXPE, NVDA, K, DNB, COTY

Friday – CBG, MHK, VALE, VTR

Earnings Reports

Positive earnings reactions

ATVI +7.50, +18.88%

CBG +2.43, +7.70%

MT +0.52, +6.31%

MHK +7.95, +3.70%

Negative earnings reactions

CERN -2.38, -4.42%

NVDA -2.76, -2.37%

2016 Q4 EPS

EPS Positive Reactions

ATVI, CBG, MT, MHK, VIAB, K, CVS, REGN, PRU, WFM, GT, FISV, PNRA, BWLD, MCHP, CTSH, PXD, ORLY, ALK, MDLZ, CDW, TDG, CNC, NOV, EMR, CHD, TSO, ICE, CBOE, ADM, CAH, HAS, SALT,

EPS Negative Reactions

NVDA, CERN, DNB, COTY, MAS, AKAM, GILD, CSRA, ICE, JEC, KORS, FMC, GM, FOXA, NWL, DO, SYY, HBI, FEYE, GPRO, SKYW, CMG, AMZN, HIG, PSX, CME, CRUS, RL, R, FB, QRVO, PBI, D, ADP, UAA, UPS, MA, NUE, XOM, JNPR, SBUX, PYPL, GOOGL, JBLU, F, CAT, WHR, FFIV, LVS, CTXS, QCOM, MUR, FCX, STLD, CA, FCX, HES, STT, AKS, VZ, JNJ, LMT, MMM, TRV, HAL, MCD, GE, NTRS, CSX, C, CMA, MS, UNH, AYI, CMC, STZ, SCHN, RHT, BBBY, FINL, AGN, FDX, GIS, ADBE

Technical Trading Observations

Indicators can be helpful, however you should remember that indicators are lagging and secondary to price.  If the price action is up and the indicator is still pointed down, follow the price.  “Price is king” means price is most important.

Trade with the trend of the chart you are trading and continue to move your profit protection stops.  Continue to follow your rules.

Follow your rules and look for potential re-entry if you were stopped out of any profitable trades.

Remember breakouts typically test about 70% of the time.

Technical analysis based trades should be closed before earnings.

Trade what you see, not…

Stocks below support should generally be traded bearishly until a reversal pattern forms.

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